pasnownut

Thats not funny....... ok...... it sorta is.

wow. thats a shame. Good dude.

Yeah i've been watching the total qpf's and seeing the same. Morning GFS op is bone dry for CTP.

and thats what I was hangin my hat on. Enough models were showing showery, so i bought in. Looking at ensembles from early week, there also was a general consensus of active times in said period. In a word......P O O F

just catching up here and yeah sounds like the king nailed this one.

if you looked at 6z GooFuS, it's getting on board w/ da King's caravan to dryville. The "moist" period advertised for yesterday through Saturday (including flood watch has me overflowing w/ stinky smelling popcorn.

yeah when its snowing in atlanta and the storm is just starting in your area.....buckle up buttercup. That was from a dynamics perspective, the most impressive....but as we all know about snow hounds....its all about the MBY totals... and when i get long duration events, I smile no matter what the tally is. Just love flakes flying. Oh....and thanks for the mid afternoon derail. I've enjoyed it and am 1 step closer to wishing this dreaded hot ass mess of a summer/year away.

as I dont follow the summer stuff as my wornder is if they do a rolling 3month mean (ie Jul/Aug/Sept) and see more chances for precip moving forward?? dunno

If memory serves, western york up to lebanon and points NW never tained in 93', (or much less i should say), as is often the case down here in the LSV warm spot.

Oh dont get me wrong...its my #2, as its rather rare to see a triple phaser. Until 16 came, it was at the center of my mantle. 93' now sits just a tad to the right of Center.

isnt she a beaut?? 93' was a doozy, but when S+ turns to pingers....heavy pingers, it ALWAYS makes me feel uneasy down here. We had 4-5 hrs of them in 93' and while I like what they do for snowpack/glacial retention... I still hate to hear them in a big one. I was nervous in 16' but knew that an mix would be minor, and to that end we flipped back quicker than originally expected. It was just a beauty of a storm for me. I'm happy to listen and see what other storms mean most to the gang. Please share stories and pics/loops.

Agreed. I'm just happy to see cashtown and mag into the goods, but to your point, the pine creek last weekend was really low. We got a super soaker while visiting Straub brewery in St Mary's only to find tours closed (recording said otherwise), but that didnt do much to help long term.

here is radar loop

No doubt for me 2016. Brief taint @ 1hr then back to S+ in deform CCB that just RAKED my casa. 31-32" local reports in my area.

Up 5 deg in SE Pa from 6z. more in line to our earlier convo. Looks a bit soggy tho. Precip looks like it hits where we need it to. Lets lock this in.

plus if one looks at the overall size of that anomalously "cool" blob as depicted, check surrounding temps and show me what/where it is tapping into in order to create said anomaly. only thing going for it is 700's outta da NW, but 850's and below are SE. Close but not close enough. Ok, Im done dissecting the 6z cause the 12z may be notably different....but it was fun anyways.

oh i think Bubbles guess at high 60's is definitely in play, but not 50's. thats all i was getting at.

thermal profiles and wind just dont match up at 18z timestamp. SE low level winds just won do it in august...or any month as we all know.

NWS goin w/ 79. IMO that is much more logical based on thermal profiles as there just isnt anything close by to tap into, nor a big stemwinder to create GFS advertised temps. Diurnal cooling in 2nd week of August in E Pa, just aint happening.

sorta chuckled when i saw it, but yes, Bubbles is not day drinkin....yet wouldnt that be nuts if it verified. Peeps would be moanin n groanin for sure.

if you dont have much to start with.....

Yeah, I want my windows open and feeling a nice breeze flowing through them.

dude, you cant be serious?? Popcorn WITHOUT butter.....?? I know there are other additives...but that only complements the BUTTER

oh and to see what "consensus" is out there. Here is NAM sayin popcorn farts for most everyone. But it is the NAM well beyond its sweet spot - whatever that is :).

Parsing over trends for late week, GFS has turned back to a wetter look. 12z yesterday 6z today. I didnt throw in the super soaker 18z from last night, cause thered be a run on TP and boats once again. Takeaway, showery times ahead, and even throught mid week, temp busts are likely to be had where the low level clouds insulate us from the bright ball in the sky.