pasnownut

and if one does extrapolate beyond, you can see more zonal setting up bubbler suggested earlier. tellies supporting my reasoning.

500s a few runs ago and todays. I may be reaching a bit, but if one looks at tellies, I could see further correction to something more workable. Less ridging in the east and heights a bit less ominous. Beyond that....who knows

I should have stated, that I'm only focusing up to 240, as I dont trust any model beyond that range. Ridging is still there, but less than a couple days ago. see below for my reasoning. now a couple runs later. Gettin a bit better.

dude...i literally just LOL'd. thats good stuff...

Looking at the GEFS it appears that next weeks 'warm up' still remains centered on 23-24, and once to Christmas and beyond Bubblers suggestion of zonal looks like a good call. The good is that no real warmth appears in the offing, but the bad is that the pattern is not one that has a stormy look to it. Once beyond Santa day, the Op and the Ens seem to diverge on 500 flow....that can be good (if one believes Ens)....or bad (if the Op is onto something). For now, i'm sticking with my it aint great or horrible mindset and we'll see how that can be tweaked once beyond this weekend.

For me....a necessary evil of sorts lol. If one truly loves weather, there is serious talent/knowledge in that forum...let alone a handful of active Mets. Some of "our" crew have left here and now post primarily because of the level of convo/info to be had down there. You get a diverse blend of information and knowledge sharing. Believe me when i say that I'd love to just stay here, because while we may not have quite the depth of knowledge....we are the coolest. Dont tell them i said that....its hard enough for me to "keep my place" down there. Good Lord they are a territorial bunch.

Waited for the dreaded changeover that never came. It WAS a true Christmas miracle. Getting stuck w/ snowmobiles in tow while en route to parents.....not a miracle. I'd give body parts for a redux.

well stated Daxx Something to think about when we talk December snow/cold, and why many of us true weather weenies don't get jacked up about "missing" December:. The Arctic (TPV) is really still in formative stages, let alone establishing residency in various regions. Thats why its still a bit early to be looking for good longwave/stable cold/snow in this timeframe. To Daxx's point, once into Jan, the cold is established and becomes more stable and readily available. We hope for disruptions/SSW events to send lobes, or the whole mother load of cold our way to get into fun n games snowwise. We then rely on the base state (ENSO/AO/EPO/PNA and the ever illusive NAO regions to help w/ getting/keeping it close/here for when storms are looming. When March comes around, while lower latitudes start thinking spring, there is still plenty of stale cold avail for fun n games. THAT is why mid jan thru mid march is the best period for snow. Theres no dispute. To that point, there is also no emotion involved. Is just plain climo. I just as much as any, want a white Christmas, but know that its really a 15% chance at best. Records support it and are not disputable. Separating emotions from facts can be difficult...but setting realistic expectations keeps you out of heartbreak hotel. No matter, I still look forward to the holidays like no other time of year.....snow or no.

thx wife tried it w/ her hips (pre surgery). I may see if she still has any "stash"

My "older" bones, cant take it like they used to. I've got some kinda arthritic deal starting. Time for thicker wardrobe

I had 18. W just a wee bit of snow remnants from last nights squall action.

And now they do it in the banter thread, and its modded by mappy/uswaf/h2o/chill. Post it in the discussion thread...go ahead. It'll be deleted, or moved to banter as soon as someone posts it. They too have asked to keep it weather related out of respect for those that really put time into their profession/hobby. Lets be crystal clear, I'm all about fun banter. It does make our forum a bit more lighthearted and fun, and for that, I'm as guilty as the next poster. For those of us that really enjoy the search of snow/cold, and try to discuss only to be followed up w/ "aint happening"...."its over"....."i hate driving in it" kinda posts without adding any substance/validation just makes some folks wanna leave. We've heard them 100's and 100's of times, and we know....we get it. I left late last year for that very reason. LIke i suggested, go back a bunch of years and you'll see I'm not alone in my thinking. By and large, I leave in the warm months out of respect for those that enjoy heat and humidity and storms (even tho ya'll are a sick bunch ). Winter lovers have 3-4 months to play, and then warmies get the rest. I'm done w/ this....this isn't MY board, its all of ours, and I wasn't looking for an argument...I was merely asking for a little forum decorum. I'll continue to sift through the rubble or leave when it looks bad. Nut.

that takes "slow outta the gate" to a whole new level. Thanks for the chuckle.

This is the not so cool part of winter. Hope it wasnt as bad as it sounds (injury wise).

we got largely skipped from the squall line. Broke up right before entering Lanco. Couple flurries/snow showers but not much.

My buds call me Super Doppler Erik.

I work in Etown. I’ve used intellicast for many years. Seems to be pretty accurate to me. https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current

Looking at radar, if that band that is headed SE holds together, the turnpike may be a bit sketchy in the next hour or so. KX enjoy buddy. You are long overdue. Looks like you keep it till the weekend.

Backdoor started showing up early Monday night and yesterday.

Mood flakes flying in Etown. Nice to see LE making it over the hills.

Gotta say that looking at the evolution for weekend NON event, just makes one scratch head as we have storms that can cut through the nations midsection like noones business, and for this upcoming weekend, we get a storm UNDER us, and it can climb whatsoever. If ones looks at 500's it is just mindboggling....even if there isnt enough cold air in place.

been a LONNGGGG time pal. It IS my fav. Classic A that takes a big drink outta da gulf and rides/drinks the whole way up the coast and bombs away off Hatteras.... only to drink so much that it stalls at the OCMD and throws up white stuff all over us. There you have my wish list for this year (weather wise anyway). Can you hook me up?

FYP

Believe it or not, I'm one of the most fun guys i know . I really am.... I'm not kidding........... Lol's For most here, its all about having fun and learning....especially w/ something that is a hobby/passion, but when the debbies pile on, drop pooh pooh bombs, and blow the joint up with little else to offer because they read it somewhere else or just dont feel it....Thats the grind. Not being a jerk, but its easy to see. Several red taggers/good posters have left because of it. For those that have been around for a while, think about it. For the casual crew, its all good, as they still add something when they can or feel comfy trying..at least they add to the discussion part. Real truth is we dont live in a big snow area, and we often scratch n scrape to get climo. We also have anomalously good and bad years. It happens. Get over it, and if you dont like whats going on, take a break. Take up poetry...basketweaving....whatevs....(no intent to offend any that partake in said hobbies). Some of us are gonna keep sniffin out the next opp in hopes of snow.

and even if they don't have much strength, that still doesn't mean we are screwed. Timing just becomes even more critical until something takes the wheel and starts driving the snow mobile. Surely thats not optimal, and lowers the chance at scoring, but it surely doesnt mean shutout either. As you know NAO typically has a short lead indicator, so as we head back to neutral we can easily go back negative, and I know a couple WAY long rangers think a reemergence of Nov is a possibility. IF we can time that with PNA or EPO, we could be liking the direction we are headed. A big IF i know.