pasnownut

Guess I'm not sure where ya'll thought the big totals were coming from? Personally I never believed them as we were initially concerned at how long it would take for column to cool w/o a good HP anchored in the NE, it was missing the big spark needed to get those totals? Regardless, it was a great moderate event, and if that's the last appreciable event, oh well. I may have blown my sled up anyway.

In fairness bud, you can pick a euro run that bounced around as well inside of 36. Surely not arguing, but I just looked back at the GFS and NAM, and inside 24-36 i didnt see anything above 8 for the LSV. To me, when the NAM shows 8" I know I'm not getting more than 6" w/ the best ratios, as we know its snowy bias. Guess thats what I based my "happiness" off of. Look back over the GFS

I just drove from Akron/Ephrata to Etown, and I can tell you a pretty uniform 6" snowfall was had in between. Saw lots of sled tracks, and I can tell you that there is 9-10" OTG in many areas. On way home from mountains yesterday, I'd say a 2-3" base was in same areas. I expected N MD to be in the battle zone w/ thermal boundary, and as we all know, areas just north of it, typically jackpot. All in all a rather nice event/period, and I'm glad for it. From the little I've looked, I could see Friday coming back north (and like where we sit), but it looks, like beyond that its back to a yo yo pattern w/ wild swings n cutters. I only saw Euro showing 8 max? NAM - well its the NAM GFS actually verified pretty well w/ snow maps IMO Im talking MBY anyway.

I'm confused, from my view from afar this weekend I saw lanco in 4-7 range and cashtown and points NE doing better. I'm rather certain I got @ 6" which was on point. S Lanco was to get a little more and I'm waiting to hear from my bud south of Millersville (plows commercially for several clients). I think your approach to not getting too wrapped up in models is a good one, bud I thought they did pretty well.

I didnt get screwed in northern lanco. Eyeballing 5-6" Snowed nicely till about 11:30 then tapered off. Lost a little on paved/warm surfaces, but was expected and forecasted here. Wish I didn't have to be here at work. My buddy snowmobiled to his office in Mt. Joy.

Just got to Lancaster and looks to be light snow just starting here. All snow. 38

First flakes 10 miles south of Selinsgrove

Thanks bud. Snowmobile leaking antifreeze. Going to backup kid sled. Lol. Thanks for keeping me in the loop. Headed home now.

Just catching up but This is some good stuff.

Yup. Gonna be a nailbiter.

Gotta say I didn’t pay much attention to it. I missed. I’m up in Tioga and actually wish I was home to see snow on snow on snow.

Nice call. You do own that one for sure. I dismissed because of spacing but nice find.

That’s a great point. Lot less WAA when easterly fetch is happening. Now if we get a stemwinder...still trouble.

dude i was rolling here....good one. Maytown...you'll get hammered,and I'll get rain at my house. Theres your snow line. UGHHH friggit...im headed north in a couple hours. Gonna play in some snow up there. I'll be checkin in so bring this one home guys.

thats really funny....and likely true. Glad to hear GEFS looks great. I peeked at nooners, and see the wagons north camp forming for Monday......

I get ya. No prob. I've been too busy to look today but really want to. I trust you guys to share what you see and get your pbp. GFS warm bias might help a bit as well. look at NAM/CMC to see if they agree. IF they do....well then....were cooked.

you ready to put your trust in it? IMO, the better tomorrow night is, the better chance sunday has a chance to tick south, as #1 can pull the boundary a little further south. Thats what the weenie in me is hoping for anyway.

yes. I'd think tonight and sunday are ones of substance for our region. saturday is sort of blip in the progression, and not likely to impact sunday/monday IMO.

thinking of you and yours bud. Enjoy the time with him.

Glad you are seeing the potential as well bud. a few of us have been thinking that things might come together in this period once the MJO/SOI lags finally worked into the Op's, and they have been spitting out some nice solutions in the last couple days. I'll take the taint down here if it means a big storm close (or hopefully just under me) while you guys further W and N crank. That how it goes down here, so I'm fine w/ it. Would be nice to see us get one far enough south for a flush hit though. Not gonna lie. Last evenings runs had some pure weather porn w/ the maps.

I really hope friday works around here. Would set the mood right for a fun period coming up. Nice to see most models coming around to something int he starved LSV

Bubbler wasnt the only one likin the next few days..... just sayin..........

After parsing over the nooners, I'm plenty happy with what is in the chute for the next 10 days. Dont even care to look beyond as I'm going to focus on my 1 week deep winter and enjoy every minute of it. And fwiw, no one model in particular has my vote, but they all have my interest. Very happy with what i perused over. Plenty of ways to fail, but if a week looks prime for snow, next week is it IMO.

That one has been if interest for a while and 6z’s were impressive in their consistent look. Hope the 12zs continue the trend. Haven’t had time to look in depth.

agreed. I'm liking the potential for at least 1 or 2 decent chances before we close the shades. Would be great to see a double digit deal around here,but you know what they say about beggars.... If one looks at the 6z's for Monday, I dare sat that's the strongest consensus for a flush hit here in CTP/LSV that I've seen in a while. Great continuity.....for the next few hours anyway.