pasnownut

If one looks at the middle/longer range on this AM's ensembles, you and Bubbles may have your wish. Once beyond Christmas, we go zonal, and IMO it is what I was alluding to when I stirred up the pot a bit several days ago. I guess some didnt see the tellies and what they were pointing to when the Op runs were screaming dumpster fire. IMO the adjustments we are seeing are a response to the tellies due to MJO signal not being strong enough to overtake the pattern. NAO/PNA and where they are heading are directly reflected in the last 2 days of LR adjustments on the ENS runs. NAO response it beating down the ridging in the east. PNA is forcing ridging in the west, and that split flow that keeps popping up is definately workable as long as it doesnt close off and carve a deep trough in the SW. BTW Bubbles....I still like you and hope your not mad at me forever. While I have my work cut out with converting you from warm to cold, you seem to know your shit. I respect that... Its just weather buddy.

Thanks for the kind words. In truth, up here it just seems meh'd over sometimes...and when I post down there, it sometimes leads to discussion. I will say that this year, it REALLY seems territorial/clicky down there. Bob, FRD, Showme and several others used to have good convos. This year down there I can say/suggest something, with no response....but if so and so says the very same thing, it gets all kinds of likes and commentary. I just chuckle and carry on...I don't do this for elite status, but I know a LITTLE bit about weather and pattern recognition . As most can tell, I'm not here for the like button on my posts, I'm a diehard weenie here to discuss weather (and of course make friends along the way-heck, I've "known" some here for over a decade...that's really cool stuff IMO). I'd love it nothing more than to stay here and have commentary from ANY/ALL of our posters, as that leads to well rounded discussions (and I truely mean that). No storms need named after me.....just give us the damn storm .

forgot about that one, until you brought it up. Yeah I remember them upping the totals every couple hours. I remember walking up the street w/ my bro around 5-6pm and looking at the street light in awe of how hard it was snowing. Probably the heaviest rates i had seen to that point in my life.

We tainted in Lanco for maybe 2 hr. Huge pingers (pack retention so fine by me) and then quick transition back over. Middletown to hbg never tainted.

No need to defend what you like....I get it and it makes sense. For a true weenie like me....you take what you can get. I'm sure you understand. Miller B's are more typical and we can do well, but I they require nerve pills when following and typically you and I live in th skip/jip zone, so I'm right w/ ya on B's. The letter A is in front of B for a reason....they were thinking about storms when they created the alphabet :).

any with the letter B to start...shocked arent you? 93 and 96 were both great but the one a couple years back(Jan 2016 maybe - sorry I'm not a great date keeper of storms) probably takes my mantle space, as we got hammered in the front, and while we tainted briefly, we quickly transitioned back to S+ and the deformation band threw 10" on top. Typically we dont do well with Dband snow around here. Watching that storm evolve was one of the "cleaner" events I've followed from a forecasting perspective. The deformation band litterally pivoted over SC/SE Pa and rotted away over us. Yeah 2016....thats #1 for me. Just thinking about it makes me giddy. It was my perfect storm, even though the totals may have been bigger in other events. Thanks....you just started my Friday off with a smile.

No one wants you to leave... Including me. if you got that message then I’m not sure how. Thanks for understanding that it’s a weather board. That’s the only point I’ve ever tried to make both past and present. By and large we largely are here to discuss weather. Like stated, you have a unique geography that puts you in a spot that many can’t understand or appreciate. You also have knowledge and it shows when you want it to. I hope you continue to share it.

You can also see the split flow developing post Christmas. That will be a key. At 500 if the SW cuts off we are cooked. Keep that open and the northern energy can digenjn A little more hence shifting the ridge axis in the easy as I shared earlier.

Yes. 2m temps are not bad. That why I agree that something could come bowling across. Scary part is there is not a strong baroclinic zone and verbatim we could easily be in the wrong side if the snow fence

AO is all over the place, so that could be a wildcard that makes or breaks us. MJO low amplitude but not great, so IMO, i'd think other indices may have a say in where we are headed. If anyone disagrees with my reasoning, thats totally fine. LMK what you think. I've gotta get on the road, but would be happy to discuss why I may be off my rocker...not the first time its been said.

and if one does extrapolate beyond, you can see more zonal setting up bubbler suggested earlier. tellies supporting my reasoning.

500s a few runs ago and todays. I may be reaching a bit, but if one looks at tellies, I could see further correction to something more workable. Less ridging in the east and heights a bit less ominous. Beyond that....who knows

I should have stated, that I'm only focusing up to 240, as I dont trust any model beyond that range. Ridging is still there, but less than a couple days ago. see below for my reasoning. now a couple runs later. Gettin a bit better.

dude...i literally just LOL'd. thats good stuff...

Looking at the GEFS it appears that next weeks 'warm up' still remains centered on 23-24, and once to Christmas and beyond Bubblers suggestion of zonal looks like a good call. The good is that no real warmth appears in the offing, but the bad is that the pattern is not one that has a stormy look to it. Once beyond Santa day, the Op and the Ens seem to diverge on 500 flow....that can be good (if one believes Ens)....or bad (if the Op is onto something). For now, i'm sticking with my it aint great or horrible mindset and we'll see how that can be tweaked once beyond this weekend.

For me....a necessary evil of sorts lol. If one truly loves weather, there is serious talent/knowledge in that forum...let alone a handful of active Mets. Some of "our" crew have left here and now post primarily because of the level of convo/info to be had down there. You get a diverse blend of information and knowledge sharing. Believe me when i say that I'd love to just stay here, because while we may not have quite the depth of knowledge....we are the coolest. Dont tell them i said that....its hard enough for me to "keep my place" down there. Good Lord they are a territorial bunch.

Waited for the dreaded changeover that never came. It WAS a true Christmas miracle. Getting stuck w/ snowmobiles in tow while en route to parents.....not a miracle. I'd give body parts for a redux.

well stated Daxx Something to think about when we talk December snow/cold, and why many of us true weather weenies don't get jacked up about "missing" December:. The Arctic (TPV) is really still in formative stages, let alone establishing residency in various regions. Thats why its still a bit early to be looking for good longwave/stable cold/snow in this timeframe. To Daxx's point, once into Jan, the cold is established and becomes more stable and readily available. We hope for disruptions/SSW events to send lobes, or the whole mother load of cold our way to get into fun n games snowwise. We then rely on the base state (ENSO/AO/EPO/PNA and the ever illusive NAO regions to help w/ getting/keeping it close/here for when storms are looming. When March comes around, while lower latitudes start thinking spring, there is still plenty of stale cold avail for fun n games. THAT is why mid jan thru mid march is the best period for snow. Theres no dispute. To that point, there is also no emotion involved. Is just plain climo. I just as much as any, want a white Christmas, but know that its really a 15% chance at best. Records support it and are not disputable. Separating emotions from facts can be difficult...but setting realistic expectations keeps you out of heartbreak hotel. No matter, I still look forward to the holidays like no other time of year.....snow or no.

thx wife tried it w/ her hips (pre surgery). I may see if she still has any "stash"

My "older" bones, cant take it like they used to. I've got some kinda arthritic deal starting. Time for thicker wardrobe

I had 18. W just a wee bit of snow remnants from last nights squall action.

And now they do it in the banter thread, and its modded by mappy/uswaf/h2o/chill. Post it in the discussion thread...go ahead. It'll be deleted, or moved to banter as soon as someone posts it. They too have asked to keep it weather related out of respect for those that really put time into their profession/hobby. Lets be crystal clear, I'm all about fun banter. It does make our forum a bit more lighthearted and fun, and for that, I'm as guilty as the next poster. For those of us that really enjoy the search of snow/cold, and try to discuss only to be followed up w/ "aint happening"...."its over"....."i hate driving in it" kinda posts without adding any substance/validation just makes some folks wanna leave. We've heard them 100's and 100's of times, and we know....we get it. I left late last year for that very reason. LIke i suggested, go back a bunch of years and you'll see I'm not alone in my thinking. By and large, I leave in the warm months out of respect for those that enjoy heat and humidity and storms (even tho ya'll are a sick bunch ). Winter lovers have 3-4 months to play, and then warmies get the rest. I'm done w/ this....this isn't MY board, its all of ours, and I wasn't looking for an argument...I was merely asking for a little forum decorum. I'll continue to sift through the rubble or leave when it looks bad. Nut.

that takes "slow outta the gate" to a whole new level. Thanks for the chuckle.

This is the not so cool part of winter. Hope it wasnt as bad as it sounds (injury wise).

we got largely skipped from the squall line. Broke up right before entering Lanco. Couple flurries/snow showers but not much.