pasnownut

GFS is in a good spot for the normal jog north. I think it has merit and legs for a refresher, before it goes away.

That is a great point. I think personally i cant let go of what was to be an "easy" winter, and how much "work/luck" it took to get where we are. Feels like the last couple of winters down here have been "work" for me. I remember being in the duldrums all to well and the board rather silent for many periods.

yeah its been an "interesting" year for snow. We've gone the "non traditional" route many times. Unfortunately, it will likely give pause to any slam dunk "winter of 2020" forecasts, but its way to early to prognosticate nino/nina as we are neutralish right now - although i've not looked for some time, so that may be off base. In truth, i really dont care about next year right now. Still feel the burn of what was to be a banner one - no matter how we've scratched our way towards climo, its not been easy.

I think your right, but I'm just setting realistic expectations in that the window may not be a large one. We sure can bootleg our way into snow and that's what I'm thinking will be how we score anymore events, unless someone sees something I don't. I think we need to wait until next weekend to see if the ridge W trough E look continues to hold or deepen.

most ensembles have been suggesting that period beyond next weeks mess. GEPS and GEFS look similar beyond 300, but do diverge further out (although same base state w/ rigding out west and trough in the east. We all know not to throw too many of our chips into LR guidance, so the window looks to be there for now.

I saw that, but gotta say, that's one hell of a stretch. Cold is on the way out, and while a few ticks south may happen, I'd think it could trend into some frozen at onset, only to be scoured out. I wanna be wrong, but this setup in Mid March, doesnt work like it does in Jan/Feb. I'll give him props, and hes a good guy, but I sense he has a lot of room on that limb that hes standing on. IMO next shot is if we get the reload in the east after the next few cutters hit us. Its just been the theme, and w/ MJO headed towards COD, Im not sure other tellies are pronounced enough to get a big hit. PNA slightly + beyond 7-8 days and neut NAO, says coldish but no big trough in the east for something to dive in. Progressive is the flow.

6.02'' per day...... . . . passes out................

just crazy.....

I had 12 in Akron, but climbed to 21 by the time i hit 222/283. 19 here in Etown

dude, you better slam a redbull and start extrapolating everything you see............ 303 posts in 2 weeks...get on it buddy.

But your point is well taken. What you state can be stated for most models, because they all have their strengths and weaknesses. That creates the problem for hobbyists, and even the big shots, as its just not a linear thing. Some need reminded that while the best algorithms can help, it cannot replace the science. Thats no dig whatsoever to those trying to better the forecasting models, but its just where we STILL are right now. Take the LR challenges we've had this year for example. Its the best data we can ingest, and then extrapolate every part of it to get your best guess. Some guesses are just a little more educated than others.

Can't agree more, but you posted know biases, so i thought that was your point. NAM is and has been on of my fav models for a while now. That's in part because i know it biases, but think it is a pretty good model and dont get the grief some give it. I extrapolate @84 all the time. By the same token, it can swing just like the others do. I/we've seen both. I toss NOTHING inside of 72, but toss alot beyond 168. This year proves that is the way to go.

Agreed. Other than a couple off runs, I thought the same when I left on Thurs and checked in Friday. i was pretty confident they were onto something decent. Just like I dont really focus on MBY forecasting methods, I use them as a general tool...even the meso's. Too many other factors/variables to really rely on a hi res snow map. The takeaway is that math/physics/fluid dynamics will never be able to replace the science of this sport IMO. Thats the biggest draw to me. Still always end up going on our best guess. Ok, now i gotta get to work. I have a sled fix to pay for. Enjoy the snow everyone. I'll be back looking at Friday to see if we can drum up one more before the cave starts calling.

Im not sure how long you've been at this, but biases are most definitely not a fallacy. Euro holds troughs in the SW GFS warm thermal fields Fv3 cold and snowy NAM cold thermal fields, snowy and overamped. CMC amped ICON - lost and these are just off the top of my head, i didnt look at the real list.

And thats where the next level of the hobbyist comes in that we just dont look at models, but also incorporate climo, and model biases blah blah blah. Someone posted earlier about how "we" (and i use that term loosely, as i include my amateur self in it)....have become model watchers and not forecasters. Thats not a pointed statement, but just generalization... and feel that its partly true sometimes. Its easy to get sucked in and wanna believe - we all do it. I know i've been guilty at times. Models have greatly improved (even despite this challenging winter that we are soon done with), but there are still other factors/forcing mechanisms that need taken into consideration.

great pics !! thanks for sharing.

Did you see why they are delaying Fv3 rollout? Issues w/ cold and snowy bias. Since I read that, i look at it for continuity in LP and 500 panels, and just peek at snow maps when I need to see perty colors.

oh....if you look over my posts of the last many years... GooFuS has been my go to, until by product of interbreeding, it spawned the Fv3 hence my renaming it Pappa G

My buds know where i get some info from, and saw the "biggies" and I told them..."aint happenin". 6" was my call from Friday night in for Lanco, and +/- we were close. Ground truth, I was happy to see totals that we did. Antecedent cold was good...not great. I wasnt so much worried about if it would snow, but more of how much with a marginally decent column.

I'm tellin ya, its our 1 week deep winter. Enjoy it pal. I know I will.

Yeah, I saw you post your concern and while I missed some of the background of why (viewing from afar), I thought something in between was a good call. We've had some fantastic discussion in here this year, and it was nice to see a few other weenies chiming in. Took the load off my back a little this year .

perfect. still can see the top of the beer can so you dont lose it.

Yeah, I'm waiting to hear from Matt. He went out at 2am to plow, and is a rather busy dude right now. I was really happy to see no taint and when I came through Lanc to get to 222N it was snow from onset. I'm happy.

Guess I'm not sure where ya'll thought the big totals were coming from? Personally I never believed them as we were initially concerned at how long it would take for column to cool w/o a good HP anchored in the NE, it was missing the big spark needed to get those totals? Regardless, it was a great moderate event, and if that's the last appreciable event, oh well. I may have blown my sled up anyway.

In fairness bud, you can pick a euro run that bounced around as well inside of 36. Surely not arguing, but I just looked back at the GFS and NAM, and inside 24-36 i didnt see anything above 8 for the LSV. To me, when the NAM shows 8" I know I'm not getting more than 6" w/ the best ratios, as we know its snowy bias. Guess thats what I based my "happiness" off of. Look back over the GFS