pasnownut

@sauss06Right on brotha. An old friend once told me during a bad round of golf at his club “just drink through it”. I now apply that to various facets of my life. Spring is one of them. Least favorite season. God rest your soul OB. Hope you’re a scratch golfer in heaven. You sure weren’t here.

See Full sun n 57 in lanc. On dashometer.

hmmmmm Area Conditions Eng Dist Stn City Temp Dew Cond Wind Vis Age 6 mi KLNS Lititz, PA 51°F 25°F Clear W @ 15 G 24 mph 10 mi 49 19 mi KRDG Reading, PA 51°F 30°F Clear W @ 7 G 17 mph 10 mi 48 27 mi KMUI Jonestown, PA 52°F 20°F Mostly cloudy WNW @ 12 G 24 mph 10 mi 46 30 mi KMDT Middletown, PA 51°F 23°F Mostly cloudy W @ 15 G 21 mph 10 mi 46 34 mi KCXY New Cumberland, PA 53°F 23°F Clear W @ 10 G 22 mph 10 mi 46 35 mi KPTW Royersford, PA 50°F 27°F Clear W @ 12 G 18 mph 10 mi 48 40 mi KTHV Spring Grove, PA 50°F 26°F Clear WSW @ 8 mph 10 mi 49 46 mi KILG New Castle, DE 53°F 23°F Clear W @ 16 mph 10 mi 51 47 mi KUKT Quakertown, PA 50°F 27°F Clear SW @ 10 G 16 mph 10 mi 27 50 mi KLOM Blue Bell, PA 50°F 28°F Clear W @ 7 G 17 mph 10 mi 27 52 mi KABE Allentown, PA 51°F 27°F Clear WSW @ 15 mph 10 mi 51 55 mi KPHL Philadelphia, PA 52°F 25°F Mostly cloudy W @ 18 G 26 mph 10 mi 48 58 mi KMTN Middle River, MD 55°F 25°F Mostly cloudy WSW @ 7 mph 10 mi 57 58 mi KSEG Selinsgrove, PA 50°F 22°F Clear W @ 13 G 20 mph 10 mi 49 59 mi KDYL Doylestown, PA 50°F 26°F Clear W @ 15 G 22 mph 10 mi 48

3 days ago it was all but spot on when we were throwing out thoughts out. I figured kpit might get near 60. it and the NAM showed the similar look.

I saw 48 at 2 pm and went back down to 46. GFS wins as the Euro had 60 showing up.

I gotchu. That period has been consistently showing up as the last good window for us, and I've been following it for a few days now. Tellies look to be decent for that period, so its not some unicorn that were chasing. All my buds are up snowmobiling, and I'm sitting here looking for digital snow....what the heck is wrong w/ me?

I think you meant + not - buddy boy? Get more coffee. Ensemble guidance still looks good for the St Patty day period and beyond, I think blizz is right, we should see chances pop up/tease as we get into next week. A few sw's belly under in that period so it bears watching.

warmest panel on 12k. Its gonna be real close for sure. 50 miles may be quite a difference as to what surface temps one has. I could hit your number while Voyager is trapped in the 40's. I could see Kpit dude givin the 6 0 a go tho yo.

Yes, Ensemble guidance continues to look like a window opens from 3/17 to maybe 3/23 or thereabouts. Nice PNA ridge and trough in the east. With wavelengths shortening and warm press starting, that can lead to fun times.

Just got home from client stops. Steady flakeage here in Akron.

Like i said yesterday....one model is gonna have some serious egg on its server I'm betting on NAM being right, and we MAY crack 50. If Im wrong, I'll take my eggs scrambled please.

Just peeking at the 18z's so far, and sombody gonna bust bad. Euro or NAM. Pick one

Couple days age I said 18-22. Let’s go with your window as it’s a bigger one.

I've been thinking 50's was a lock. Last look at snow for a while it seems. Hoping not the end, but if so, this week has been good for my soul. I can let go if needed, but would sign up for a welcome to spring blizzard for sh!ts n giggles. In with a bang...out with a bang.

Daxx/JNS/MAG and more than a few others as well. Its been a great winter of discussion. Already looking forward to next year. Saw your post about the meet/greet. I'd be down, but Mag and I have tried in the past w/ little luck. Not sure why, but if you can make it work, I'd be glad to toss a brewsky back w/ ya'll.

If Pappa G is correct, that mud may turn into a mud slide..... I/we dont want another wet year.

yeah, i saw the same. mood snow is better than none....when you have some on the ground its easy to pretend its piling up

That’s the part that some don’t realize. Some here haven’t seen their yards for over a month. Us..4 days. I’m enjoying it.

If it’s gonna work....that’s how it’s gonna do it. I know showme thought it might go under, but I just don’t see that. Actually I’d prefer your suggestion. We just proved that without a block it still can happen.

after next weeks cutterfest, it appears that we morph into a trough in the east and it may be pronounced enough that could pull off something big. As we enter spring, the normal shortening of the wavelengths gives the chance for something big to pop. I'd take my chances w/ what the 0z was showing verbatim. One big @ss stemwinder to wrap it up. Cold would likely follow for a couple days, then....its a wrap.

Sure is a beauty out there this morning. Enjoying our 1 week deep winter. Good stats Pawatch. Yeah we found a way to get it done, but like i said, it sure wasnt the easy route. My letdown is that i like to see snow on the ground for extended periods, not here today...gone tomorrow. Most events were like that here in the LSV, or we tainted with many, so its just not clean snow. I'm not mad, just bummed. Definitely snowed enough times to keep my spirits up this year. Would be great to see 1 more "clean" snow event. the one that is showing up 3/22 is a doozy. That could wrap it up nicely if it could trend right for us. Thats the period to watch. 3/18-22.

Blocking was my biggest hope (and letdown) this year. We've seen that we can do without (-EPO/AO) and still get it done, but it was what I thought would be the missing piece of the snow puzzle for us. Once the first modeled blocking came...and went, the flag went right up and i thought "here we go again".....and again....and again, as several episodes were modeled then didnt come to light. Later on as we all started to wonder why, and the MJO (which typically is an important piece-but not the be all end all) seemed to be the only logical reason as to why we couldnt get it right here in the east. SOI only trended - in the past few weeks and the couplet of an unfavorable MJO/SOI seems to have been largely what killed the chances for blocking that we so badly needed. My wonder is why the MJO did the loopdy loop in 6 and why it remained unfavorable for such a long period? With ENSO where it was, I didnt think blocking was going to be such a challenge. Now I know better, and will enter w/ a more cautious approach, no matter the signals. PNA rules the west AND the east and I hope that we can find our way to more favorable regimes next year. Lastly, the LR models really did a bad job IMO. How many times were we fooled by a trough in the east, that only got pushed back or went poof? Things to remember, but moreso, to figure out why? Its above my pay grade, but these are the ??'s I'm left with as we head into our summer slumber.

Agreed. Pac has proven to be one of if not the biggest driver of what we get in the east. If its bad there's only 1 or 2 ways out (snow wise), if its good, its a LOT easier and there are more than a couple ways to score in the east.

I like it.... I've had fbombs thrown at me with my love of snow.... I giggle my ass off when they do.....

hehe. I'm still young enough to bounce back. I'll be ready bud. No worries. having a few more voices chiming in this year has been nice. Looking forward to it.