pasnownut

well....thats debatable.... but we'll share what we've got for ya. edit - referencing my own personal updates btw

also, in my mind, I'm hoping for a weaker/less wound up system, as it becomes more overruning and while qpf would suffer a bit, it would help to save thermal profiles for us. Something to watch.

12z NAM ticked a bit stronger w/ cold at critical layers. Look at 700/850's as well as surface maps and you'll see it reflects more frozen. Its a small step, but it wouldnt take much to keep CTP in a nice transitional winter storm look.

exactly. The unfortunate thing is that this storm evolution is similar to how it looked a couple days ago, but subtle shifts in thermal profile are what make the difference here, even though they are similar to what we were seeing Monday. Warm nose at 850/925 is what is hurting us for snow/ice, but column is close enough workable that we shouldn't "lose" what we get. Just need to hope we get enough to whiten the ground, as it should stick around for a while. Thats the win I'm hoping for.

Agreed. Those of us that have been doing this for some time, know that 6" was always top bar for true CTP w/ a storm evolution/pattern like this. 3" for MBY has been my guess, and for much of CTP, but Trainers 2/-4 is better as gradient will be likely due to changeover and cold holding in respective spots. If anyone thought hi end possible w/ an 850 LP passing well to our NW and HP on the move....well I'm not sure what to say. It CAN happen, but as soon as we lost the anchored HP look, us realists were hoping to hang onto the cold as long as possible. CAD can over preform here. That's where weather maps become guidance and knowing your climo takes over.

Yeah, peeps need to forget the unicorn run that shows mega hits and realize that it's a shift in the regime that we can only chase in LR guidance. The shift is real, and that's all we can ask for at this juncture.

as you well know, we usually are on the fringe....it's how we roll down here. When earlier outputs had decent snow into DC, thats when I feel "safe". Unfortunately the pattern is just getting re established and there isnt much to "hold the cold- HP anchored in upstate NY or NE. That would really save us w/ this kinda deal. Everything for this event is progressive....cold included. Verbatim, 700's still ok, but we lose 850's. Thats a sleet/zr or yes plain rain (although gut says still brief period of -r look to it before column cools back down as precip winds down. FWIW I still think you should be fine w/ 2-4. with SW to NE progression of best accums. Still happy to see the reset and look forward to the next one.

They are taking a beating in many areas. It sure is sad for any business that relies on snow.....snowmobiling included. ☹️

18z NAM showed a bit less ridging which is what PSU was Sharing this AM wrt GFS and Euro. I’m rooting that scenario on and will deal with whatever comes as it will lessen warm nose intrusion to mids.

What’s funny is that’s it’s probably legit, and I’m too dumb to know better. Ok....back to storm stuff. 0zs incoming and they are the most important run since.... the 18zs

Not that we don’t care.... Just have no friggin clue what your talkin bout pal.

also looks a little better than 12z early on w/ LP. Also a little further south w/ frozen. No nuts kicked here. Some just dont over analyze an op run at 5 days. We look for trends and there really has been little new here. As I stated earlier today, thermal profiles are what are most important, and 18z was a notable improvement at 700/850's. Supports more frozen. Actually I'm quite happy with what i just saw. Nice step for CTP

Id take null vs strong 6 in a heartbeat.....just sayin.

As many times as hes ridden the good ship "ECMWF" to its death, he really takes away from his credibility. Its a great model, but not perfect as we all know too well.

If we can sneak a primarily frozen event in for the first storm of the "pattern change", that is EASILY a win for me (us?).

who cares......... Used to like his reads, but when he got too full of himself....that ended that. Plus he's often wrong.

and to narrow the goalposts a bit per the good convo above, knowing our regional climo here says w/ a setup like this, and what we are seeing on the maps, gut says very little pure liquid if at all. Warm nose gets into Oh, but CAD structure should show up inside of 24-36 as we near go time. Thermal profiles should support more sleet. If 700 warms then ZR wins the day. On the other hand Trainers 2-4 is really a legit call w/ an event like this. As the storm track seems to be pretty well defined. Keep an eye on the HP. Thats the money ticket for frozen. If that loses strength or gets outta here more expeditiously in the next couple days....well you know what that means.

Definitely something that we deal w/ and agree w/ you guys. Only potential plus is the power of the 1040ish hp that departs slowly and gets down to 1039. If that verifies, it will surely anchor in the lower levels as Mag alluded to. One needs to be reminded that CAD is often under modeled, so that is something to consider when putting the storm puzzle together. Snow maps are just for giggles, but I love laughing.

I feel the same way. I enjoy winter and the look of it. Snow falling is best, but as long as it sticks around...I can get over infrequent snows. Looking forward to this upcoming period and glad to see it growing legs.

Looks like the 12z GFS continues a better trend w/ LP and 500's as it continues to flatten the ridging. If this trend continues, I could see this being mostly frozen for many. at 114, you can see a better placed HP and slightly stronger, which shows a better CAD structure. Nice start to lunch. more to come..........

Back from the cabin, and getting back into the swing of things. Looks like you guys did a good job of keeping the ship heading in the right direction. Exciting times ahead. Nice to see Euro/GFS on similar trains of thought, and w/ the Euro coming in better...its a great spot to be in. LR guidance says cold looks to hold for a while. Not parsing over detaiils too much but its nice to see reds and blues where they belong on the 500's.

Was up at cabin muzzleloader hunting. No sledding this weekend. I can’t change what happens weathwise and just deal with it. As I’ve said for years...us snow lovers get 3 months so the other 9 we watch. That’s my rub. All good.

Dont offer it 2x bud. I'll bring sleds for some group fun. I even have a pull behind sled for snowmobiles. I so could see Sauss sittin in it layin back w/ a MHL (miller hi life) in hand as we chug along...(kidding of course-sorta). Just gotta figure out how to get the other 8 guys onto 2 snowmobiles......hmmmmm

and too much attention to the bong..........

Montague/Brantingham is where i stayed. I do miss it up there. LIve feed