pasnownut

Thats a good one....

NAM has a habit of juicing up as we near, so yeah I agree. Still alot of time left and with something like this, we are in the battle zone, so wiggles make a big diff to ones backyard. I'd take 1" of snow and 1" of sleet. No problem.

Looking at the wonderful "snowfall" map, suggests to me that sleet is a big part of LSV "accums".

Stronger warm push north evident as 850s and we lose them when we need them during max qpf, so ZR likely unless warm layer is shallow enough to stay IP.

snowdome blocks wind too?

that is a definite possibility (location dependent). Lets hope mid/lower levels continue to cool...especially 850/925's as that where liquid freezes :). Really hoping for IP over ZR.

yeah, the 6z gfs was by far the best run of the year (go peek at snow map). If we can keep this look on the maps, there is a nice train of events for trackin in the next couple weeks.

Looks like the ens are starting to line up w/ the Ops as per blizz's map above. wrt overnights, cmc ticked north, 6z gfs ticked south, but it looks like turnpike and north mostly frozen w/ north and north of 80 seeing most white (while still seeing brief mixing. to me that 2-4 call with me closer to 2 and voyager and points north best whack at 4 or more. This is based off thermal fields and seeing them slowly eek south, which increases my confidence at frozen vs plain rain mixing in. Really looks like a decent amount of sleet for lower/mid suqu valley.

In the them of the all powerful Geenie...ask and you shall receive

0z Icon and GFS also ticked south a bit at 700/850 so ICE ICE baby may be the tune to sing yourselves to sleep w/. Gnight

I'm hoping/thinking everything you just stated as well. In truth, , you have a legit chance of this verifying just as you wish. Seeing the frozen lines continue to creep South gives hope to minimal non frozen (except for maybe far S/SW crew (and they are rather close to predominantly frozen events....just less snow and more ice Can you give me the Geenie lamp for the 1/25 event??

18z kuchera 0z kuchera

I’ve said it for days....wrt this system thermal profiles will determine what your backyard gets. Storm has been rather consistent in where it’s going. We still have 48 hrs to see how CAD and antecedent cold factor in. Systems like this can surprise as we approach game time. way too early to call anyone’s backyard.

Likely yes but “snowfall” on NAM is hard to distinguish. Voyager sits in a much more favorable location being northeast of the LSV. and that doesn’t mean he’s a big winner here, but 0z was rather similar with qpf distribution. that’s my point.

Keep wishing it away and you may end up right.....but no it didnt

But man....if only they were. GFS is much the same....ridin the line gang.

If trends continue, I think Trainers 2-4" is money and I'd bet ALL of Sauss's on it.

First happy hour run made me happy...and want a beer. As stated by many of us many times....with storms like this....small differences can make notably better (or worse) outcomes. Plenty of time for more "adjustments". We are a couple more tics away from a primarily frozen event. Surface LP came in a tad weaker which shows up in critical layers, as warm nose gets cut off a bit. and this is just me looking for fun and to see what trends are showing. No forecast whatsoever. Thats MAG's job.

They should be concerned. Let me remind everyone that while it’s fun to browse other forums (I do it as well and have many good convos down there), but the MA is often vastly different to what’s happening here. “I read it somewhere so it’s happening” doesn’t necessarily apply. I’d much rather be up here than down there for this event.

well....thats debatable.... but we'll share what we've got for ya. edit - referencing my own personal updates btw

also, in my mind, I'm hoping for a weaker/less wound up system, as it becomes more overruning and while qpf would suffer a bit, it would help to save thermal profiles for us. Something to watch.

12z NAM ticked a bit stronger w/ cold at critical layers. Look at 700/850's as well as surface maps and you'll see it reflects more frozen. Its a small step, but it wouldnt take much to keep CTP in a nice transitional winter storm look.

exactly. The unfortunate thing is that this storm evolution is similar to how it looked a couple days ago, but subtle shifts in thermal profile are what make the difference here, even though they are similar to what we were seeing Monday. Warm nose at 850/925 is what is hurting us for snow/ice, but column is close enough workable that we shouldn't "lose" what we get. Just need to hope we get enough to whiten the ground, as it should stick around for a while. Thats the win I'm hoping for.

Agreed. Those of us that have been doing this for some time, know that 6" was always top bar for true CTP w/ a storm evolution/pattern like this. 3" for MBY has been my guess, and for much of CTP, but Trainers 2/-4 is better as gradient will be likely due to changeover and cold holding in respective spots. If anyone thought hi end possible w/ an 850 LP passing well to our NW and HP on the move....well I'm not sure what to say. It CAN happen, but as soon as we lost the anchored HP look, us realists were hoping to hang onto the cold as long as possible. CAD can over preform here. That's where weather maps become guidance and knowing your climo takes over.

Yeah, peeps need to forget the unicorn run that shows mega hits and realize that it's a shift in the regime that we can only chase in LR guidance. The shift is real, and that's all we can ask for at this juncture.