pasnownut

You are correct and that coupled w/ the warmer looks at 500 are exactly why I'm suspicious, and why my eyebrow was stuck in lift postion. When parsing over, I saw the 850 anomalies vs 500's is just didnt seem to fit. Too early for the cold to hold IMO. LIke i said, it doesnt scream torch, but it doesnt scream frosty pumpkins either. I'm ok with what is currently depicted as you stated, anything below 75 is tolerable...for now.

Per GEFS, only concern i have is that upper levels have warmed at 500 from a few days ago, and surface doesnt quite match up to me, so one of them is going to bust. I'll root on the 850's over the 500's for the win, but logic says that 500's may be closer to right, and if so, i hate to say it, but CTP could be onto something. Regardless, verbatim the warming looks normalish for Oct., so its still better than this crap.

they are just practicing for the upcoming winter when they will poo poo any cold/snow that comes along.....

my bro and i both talk about how we love the early darness of winter....people think our wires dont touch. They are probably onto something

just saw a vid on Social Media and wowzers. Thats just a hum dinger of a storm. Next weekend cant come soon enough. FIrst sniff of leaves while out on the bike w/ my wife today. Its the small things that sometimes make one happy. That made me happy.

I'm just going to weenie my way into a good winter by cherrypicking all signs that help us. That said, I'm liking to see the reemergence of Modoki Nino as Ben suggests. Hope that look gains traction....just like good snow tires.

Looking over ensembles, a week from today looks to be starting into a cooler regime, as 2m air temps have blues starting to show up w/ some gusto. Also seems to be showing some chances for appreciable precip into second week of Oct. If verified, looks like some nice fall weather coming up once we get to latter part of next week. Might have to dust off of my model watching websites. :). Nut

Yep. Thats my point, while it can get cold here in the fringe zone of snow vs no snow, we typically need help from above. Northern latitudes while warming...are far enough into the cold to not have to worry as much. When ice formation/accretion seems to be stressed, it makes logical sense that the smaller the ice box, the less it can cool. That said, I love using the "cold enough to snow" analogy, but feel that while still true, it might be shifting north a bit due to factors mentioned above and by others. Unfortunate, but in my mind is a logical assumption/hypothesis. Still lookin forward to winter :).

Agreed. We all know Pac drives our weather bus, so if we are struggling with other indicies (NAO/AO), then at least if we can get the PNA in our favor, at least we line up better for what cold might be around.

just havin fun..... I stayed out of the cave this year.....you guys are too much fun to miss.... Looking forward to autumn and the prelude to winter (or what should be winter).

absolutely. No need to waste a good pattern/cold until it really can work for us. Something i'm playing with in my mind is watching the forcing between the arctic domains vs Enso/Equatorial regions as low sea ice continues to be something to watch in the coming years. Cant help but think that low ice could play an effect on polar regions indicies being less forceful as a result. While i realize it only has to be cold enough to snow, when polar regions are warming, the amount of cold in polar regions has to play into the cards somehow, with areas in between being the ones most notably affected, and the time it takes to manufacture enough cold to be able to affect our region favorably has me wondering. Hope my theory makes sense.

Yeah....its a shame when the atmosphere screws up our weather..... Did ya miss me....

yeah, climo suggests it gets harder by the day for big heat/humidity. Looks seesawish in the LR. Fine by me. just turn off the friggin sticky sh!t.

enjoy the less crowed beaches. Drink one for me....preferably not IPA though....

Just looked last evening after being in the mountains and enjoying some refreshing weather, and yeah, I have to agree that it looks like the worst is past, and we start into an early fall regime. Looking forward to it. Wearing a sweatshirt around a campfire felt wonderful.

and fwiw, it looks to continue into early Sept. Looking over ens members, its not a hard pattern to take for late summer with several shots from the land of Canooks to keep us comfy until Autumn really arrives. Enough ridging out West to keep flow coming from w/nw. I'm down w/ dat.

dont tease....

Looks like great grillin....and maybe a bit of chillin is coming up. 500 if believed this far out shows slight ridging in the west and zonal ish in the east, with winds primarily w or nw, it would be hard to really get too hot....but more importantly keeping dews at reasonable levels. Thats about all i can get ya for now. Cheers

If one looks at the GEFS, it appears that end of month has a brief period above normal, but as you stated, anomalous in late Aug/early Sept can be a little less harsh. Beyond that period, plenty of blues on the map, with it centered in the central basin region. As long as the SER is kept at bay (as currently shown), I'd say we might have seen the worst of summer, and a more pleasant regime setting up into early sept. Beyond that, its too early for me to dig too deep, and warm season indicies are not my wheelhouse, as its not something i pay much attention to. I only start looking in early Oct. This year I decided to stay out of the cave and just roll w/ it and keep in touch. What can i say....yall r just a bundle of fun to be around

FYP............. .01 Light rain overnight but yeah, I was ready for some rain, and through dark, barely wet the ground.

barely wet the ground in my hood. I could tell that Etown got rocked a bit though. lots of leaves/debris

I'm thinking after last years miss....many are afraid to start this thread in July..... Let's talk in 3 months....

My son and i were talking about how nice the grass is for July (other than a bit of stubborn crabgrass), and no doubt the rain has helped to keep things lush despite the temp anomaly. If we keep it up, the corn harvest should be a banner one. (i always hope that for our farmers - and my belly as we love sweet corn)

Just parsing over overnights and it appears that with the exception of a short warm period next week, a rather benign period is setting up into the extended. WAR is basically non existent (per GFS/GEFS) and temps are tolerable. I think we'll all take some "normal" weather for a change. Seeing that we are 5.2 deg above normal for July, I'm happy with that. If one believes the GFS suite, it looks like Aug may start on the "cool" side. Looking forward to less sweating.

Never heard of scud cloud. I've learned something today. thx To me it looks like tight rotation that captures clouds/debris/water droplets....but yes over land. Was just an uneducated guess coupled with a hint of logical deductions.