pasnownut

yeah i think i counted like 3 mashed tater splats on windshield on way to work. Looks like a touch of backbuilding on radar so maybe a couple more mood flakes may fly as thermal boundary seems to be cold enough for whatever falls to be white and no longer wet down here.

Great to see you back Bob. Had me worried for a bit. Hope the break was good for your sanity. Great convo here guys. Looking forward to another season of it. Looking at ENS guidance that PSU just posted above, it is nice to see the semi persistent ridging in the PAC and a workable look in the AO/NAO regions. We've all been burned a plenty by LR guidance, but maybe the early calls by some for the NAO to show up this year may be somewhat legit, and LR guidance is still adjusting accordingly. Wouldnt that be a pleasant surprise?

After bouncing around webcams of the state, it looks like the typical expected winners were the ones that cashed in. Northern tier, Somerset/Johnstown and NEPA (including Schuylkill County as one cam showed a whitening of the ground). CTP will wait for the next one....or the next one, but we'll be here. Tug Hill got a nice little event out of it as it was primarily snow up there. Lucky buggers. Have a good day gang.

I did see my first snow Thursday at the cabin. bout 1.5" on top. Made for an extremely cold few days of hunting but was great to see. Regarding tomorrows anafrontal snows.....meh. We've seen this many times with any changeover being brief at best down here. I'd say north of RT 6 corridor is best chance of any whitening. Like Blizz...I'll take any mood flakes i can get though. Just not sure we see them. Hoping I'm wrong. Chilly Tues night no matter what flakes fly.

Gonna be cold in the treestand..... Brrrrr I'll take it but someone may need to chisel me out of it.

yep

while that may be a bit leading/presumptuous....I'd sure rather have explosive snowcover than warm barren tundra. #maybemaybenot

any kids going as kites on Friday...need to be tied to parents.

yeah it was mentioned in yesterdays disco. Sounds like CTP is in the crosshairs....cept for your house.....ya know....atmospheric memory and your Schuylkill county storm bubble :)

Best quote of the day so far..... Also said it the other week, that with no overwhelming forcing that we could swing back and forth with some favorable periods. Thats from a rather simplistic view mind you, but at this lead, i think its hard to get to deep into the weeds to figure out how this winter evolves.

Yeah Id bet the same, but mine is mixed mowing and leaf mulching.

Yup. And to add to your point, if we don't have an overwhelmingly big PV, it is conceivable to think that frequent perturbations could happen. To the other side of the coin, it could also mean that we see transient periods. To me, the warming Arctic is an new variable that is playing a part in the challenges we have seen in the past few years, as you can't just plot tellies/500mb maps etc, and assume traditional outcomes. Its just something that has been bouncing around the rocks in my head. Good news is that as we all know....it doesnt have to be overwhelmingly cold.....just cold enough. Heading to the cabin for a few days to get off the grid, so gin up a good early season pattern for us while I'm gone :).

Just about spit out my coffee....thanks for the chuckle. In fariness, and in my mind, there is no reason (other than atmoshperic memory, voodo dolls, and all that other hexy stuff that works against us), to say that with the base state being neutralish, that once something "locks in", that it couldn't stick around for a while or reoccur as no dominant forcing mechanisms seem to be showing up. Just looking at the overnight GEFS at the start of Nov (when it becomes show time for me as it CAN snow if things line up right), one can already see an erosion of the ridging in AK and a trough getting ready to dump into the SW. Mind you its way out there, but there's just not enough continuity to get cranked up yet. Tellies show the AO tanking, so I'll just take that for now and enjoy my leaf peepin....

Are we buying or selling this? I'm not either.....I'm holding. I agree w/ Showme that the way the NAO is showing up is different, so to that I cannot argue, but so early in the season and so late w/ cold really building up north, I remain the skeptic for those reasons. Of course i'd be glad to be wrong...I wanna be wrong, but, the look above per ventrice is one we've seen modeled before with little follow through. On the bright side, it will only take for the GFS to be right this one time to make all of us believers again. It sure is perty as modeled.

he's just practicing for the winter....

Yeah it is a great look, but one only needs to remember how many good looks materialized in the NAO domain over the last few years. To me, its just a LR map right now (but oh how i wanna believe). PAC looks to be better going into our fun time this year so, one can conceivably see that as a +, but with low sea ice and warmth in northern latitudes, I remain skeptical wrt AO/NAO until further notice - or another 40 model runs . Snakebit

Was thinking the same thing. Time to get some firewood moved down from out back. Looking forward to the first smells of smoke billowing from the chimney.

41 out this way. No frost but looks like we were getting close. Beauty of a weekend no doubt.

Its just awesome to be away from the oven. Looks like nice stretch of autumnal weather coming up. Went down on bike to OC MD for anniversary weekend with wife and another couple and my face is rather windburnt. Wind was crazy for a rather long duration. Outside of that, it was great to be chilly for once. There was a Corvette show going on. Pretty cool to see them rumble up the boardwalk.

yeah it is a rather large diurnal swing in a rather compressed area, but this is the season for it. it was nice to open the windows and turn the AC off this morning. Hearing the rain in the gutters and feel in the air was a welcome site for me/us.

Hey gang.. Started a new thread for Fall/Winter.

Since the last 90's of the season seem to be gone (for now anyway), it seems like a good time to turn the page and discuss what is largely our favorite time of the year. Here's to a great fall and winter. Discuss.......... Nut

Thats why i posted the wind map. Already SW 6 hrs prior to the 850 map. Cold just aint gonna hold if 500 is right. But yeah sneaky cold is definitely getting close enough for sure. Here is this AM's run of same timeframe. I included surface winds. No NE reflection being shown. This is all for fun....and i'm not beating any drums.....cause its nowhere near showtime for me/us. I was just pointing out the "cold" shot might just be a "cool" shot. Its just typical swings of autumn to me. Fun to see cold around again though. Sets the mood right :). Have a good day gang.

and here's 500 anomaly for full disclosure to what I'm talkin about .

here is an example of what doesnt jive to me. 2m vs flow at 500. Look at wind direction below and verbatim, id think the surface would not be as cold as depicted. Wind out of SW will quickly scour out antecedent cold. I posted prior 6hr panel below for covo's sake. Pattern goes back and forth, so as stated, all normal and good IMO.