pasnownut

Looking at last 6 runs of MSLP, yeah i guess it has trended somewhat S and E, but Id think it a bit of a stretch to get it under us. edit....as i keep watching, it may not bee too far off from doable.

Yeah it looks once beyond the 12/6 timeframe that the PAC ridge/ trough East seems to stay their right through the end. Doesn't appear crazy cold, but if timed right, cold enough to get a festive feel in the air. Tellies really dont really support what the GEFS is showing (in my mind anyway - mostly PNA), but enough neutrals to say....ok...maybe.

If one looks at the potential weekend event on the GFS, there's more than a little bouncing around on the surface low evolution, and it seems plausable that as we near and see a better track that the potential for the ULL to catch the surface as it really slows once it hits the coast. Get that surface low to ride a little further south and it could be a nice little surprise IMO.

Still rippin here

Nice. Looks good man. Hoping that Blizz and the NAM's are right and we see a little flakeage down here.

I'd take the muted WAR option and hope for bowling balls/clippers....UNLESS Bob's NAO theory is right and we can keep that in the neg phase. Then i'd take some ridging in the Atlantic to help turn anything that rides the boundary up our way.

NAO/EPO/AO....whatever it takes to get us snow. Gotta say that the 6z GEFS surely depicts the EPO on roids. Cross polar flow is a term that might need dusted off if that comes to light.

if one looks a the 500's wrt Op and Ens....they are notably different. Ens looks just fine for now, and for whatever one believes in LR guidance, I'll roll with the ENS (also because I like that look much more.)

Was just thinking the same thing. Once the calendar turns, the pattern looks to be capable of giving us a legit threat to track. 6Z GEFS for that general timeframe was perty imo.

TGIF all. Well its a couple days later than my last post, and next week looks to have changed for the warmer for sure as the storm cuts way west and drags the cold front south with another cutter on its heels. Looks like minimal/no chance of white prior to turning the calendar. Once that happens, it looks like things get better for us as a pig ridge pops in the Yukon territories and a split flow seems to develop in the jet. Pattern through the end of month has similarities to much of what we saw last year, but if one believes Ens guidance, then our wait SHOULD be over as we start Dec. NAO/PNA/AO while less favorable to start the month, still appear to be favorable, and there is enough spread in the tellies to give pause to any slam dunk predictions. So for now....the wait continues. Nut

If one looks at todays nooner GEFS, flow at 500 seems to be rather zonal, but there are a few times where there's thickness's would be close to fun if we can time it right. Good is that no SER popping up and some blockiness showing up upstairs in the AO/NAO domains. Verbatim it looks to erode towards the end of the run, but for now, we should just focus on 14 and under until some stability shows up and one feels confident enough to dab a toe into the LR and where things go. Anthony Maisello things fun times for early Dec. and as I've followed him for some time, he's a guy that us weenies watch when he gets the sock off and dabs the toe in :).

6z GFS, definitely looks exciting to say the least, but if you look at the 500 from 0z to 6z, its fair to say that the outcome is still "up in the air".

speaking of.....where's Wes been?

I'd bet 1 year suspension at minimum

yeah I watched it a few times. Rudolph did grab his facemask first, but he did get a late pummeling, so I'd say he was ok to be a bit pissed. Had Garrett hit him with a different part of the helmet, it could have been a concussion or worse. That was crazy to watch.

It is nice to see where we've been and where we seem to be heading as we approach December. 2M temp anomalies are blues of varying degrees for as long as the eye can see. End of the GEFS looks really nice at 500mb so it would seem likely that if things hold, we might be able to score a little early season action. A pleasant way to start tracking season regardless the outcome. Pac seems to be cooperating early on and in my mind has to be a big part of the perty maps. Couple that with some help in the NAO domain and it could feel like normal winter round here.

still beats the heck outta discussing warm n endless PIG ridge. Being early like it is, I'm fine w/ either camp to be honest, but understand your concerns.

Agreed. In the last few years I've become a fan of -AO for winter opps here in the east, but will GLADLY put an N in front of it. I'd think we'd all take our chances just to see a modeled -NAO come to light. Strength/duration are secondary concerns to me as that domain has been a wrench in our spokes for a long long time. Cautiously optimistic that we are heading towards a nice start early in the season. Nice to see the ducks coming back to the pond.

As I'm not a stat guy/gal like some on here...any ideas on analog years that have neg temp anomalies for both Nov/Dec? I've heard the Nov/March theory, but wonder what bringing Dec into the mix offers? If we can pull this early stretch of BN off, even if we have a relaxation in the pattern early in the year, it sounds possible that we could have notable bookends for this upcoming winter. As i have all of these ideas in my mind, I think its also good to see such a strong early season PV, so that if/when it does relax, it can be easier to displace when we really need it. Follow that with a blockier look in Feb/Mar, that to me sounds like a way to pull off a decent winter. Just rambling along here, but I guess the snow shower i just drove through got me a bit cranked up for winter.

I like most are totally in agreement. We by and large are weenies with passion for weather, but like you , I sorta checked out late last winter due to the W/C fest that was running rampant. It got to the heartiest of weather hounds. I admittedly burned out a bit and the fun left me for a while. Here's to hoping that we can keep it real (and fun too) this year. We need level heads in here to keep things in the proper perspective. Liking the way things are looking in the next couple weeks. Keep perspecive real gang...Seasonal is a win, and anything below normal and chatter wrt snow is just spiking the meteo football at this time. LR guidance already chukin out curveballs, so one must keep the focus on closer lead times and dont sweat every breakdown of a pattern on a 360 hr map and we should be alright this year. Here's to hopin. Nut

Then I/we are in good company. Here's to many more.

love cloudy autumn/winter days. I'm whacked just like you are.

fixed

yeah i heard the front come through around 530-6 am. Notable drop since then. No flakes though.

I suggested somewhere a while back that as we "warm" that it may become easier for disruptions of PV which in the short term may be favorable for winter lovers. Thats just a spitball observation