pasnownut

Saw drizzle n 35 on way into office. now light rain for me. Congrats to all the winners today. Hoping you pad stats before you warm n wet like the rest of us losers.

@Mount Joy Snowman and i heard lititz and manheim got 3-4" from weekend event prior to changeover, so I guess I verified my 3-6 even if not mby...hehe (I really dont give 2 shits....but co worker told me what we got). I was just happy we got the storm.

Yep. Snowing nicely up there now. Been watching for last hour. On top of what they got over weekend 4-5ish, it might make it through. Dunno. Nice to see laurels n central still snowing. Happy for them. and yeah, a week from today the mood may be bright in here for a while.

Squall line much?

FYP

Some of our wester and norther folk may like the GEM for this weekend. Snow map is deep. Also seeing GEM now is a miller B w/ transfer at 120 as cold press is a tad deeper and likely helping. Not sure if that gains any momentum or not. GFS not to dissimilar w/ SLP placement but warmer, so there's that.

yeah, it was nice to see chatter last week, and looks like more chatter (for various reasons) may continue. Really hoping next weeks pattern can put some more snow/cold on the board for us.

Yeah I could have added Danville to the winners list (hills north towards northumberland anyway). Bear Gap always "wins". Lol. Elevation was discussed by some of us early on wrt this event, and that surely factored into the mix of who got what. R/S line is tricky in marginal events and always some winners and losers. We all got snow, so it was a win IMO.

I have an old and huge pin oak that has lots of widowmakers hangin on it. Was told not to trim this tree as pin oaks are sensitive. Sounds like mo nature may do some pruning for me (right over my driveway of course, so may park cars out on street for this one.

Hope yall enjoyed the weekend snow. Left cabin w/ about 4-5" on top and snowing mid morning yesterday. Nice to see winter back (albeit briefly). Elysburg to 901 exit of 81 appeared to be the winners (eyeballing mind you). Saw some sled tracks in fields on way home (and going into office this am). I was a touch heavy on Lanco accums but saw enough pics on soc media to know that it did snow. I dont really care if I was off for MYB but sounds like it did pretty well in the Altoona/Poc axis. Good for them. Enjoy the gullywasher this week and hopefully we'll be back in the game soon as tellies dont look great beyond next couple weeks.

Up at cabin enjoying the dusting of snow otg and checkin in to tell you all to enjoy the storm. First in a long while. Stickin with my 3-6 from days ago. Hope everyone beats me ( and most should). Happy weekend. 24 deg was hi up on top at cabin.

I liked it in the old days, but I'm sure alot has changed since then. My bro suggested that he watches some of the weather guys on youtube and one guy he told me to watch called the NAO the North American Oscillation. I chuckled and havent watched him since. Guess I'll stay here for a while longer to get my fix.

Do you like WB? I had it for a while many moons ago, and considered getting it again.

To add to how elevation dependent events can be down our way, I've seen brown and at the top of my hill in town, white powder bombs and the diff is literally 100-150' of elevation. Thats how close we often are down here. This one will likely have some characteristics like that. BTW, that RGEM snow map is a winner for us. Just need to figure out how to rig other models to match it.

If were using history as a guide, history proves this point more times than not and despite what the models show we've seen this rodeo a few times and as i've been saying for days, have always factored that in based on pattern depicted. Making cold air is not easy for us LSV'rs. Never has been and its all about the rates.

I think they take the "safe" bet as its a win - win. To the low end if a trace, snow haters are happy....to the high end, if they say 2" and we get 3-4" most people knew it was coming and most wont measure to say "you were wrong". They dont count inches like us weenies do.

Sounds reasonable as depicted and falls in line w/ alot of others. I still expect my north tick tomorrow, but for now its good enough for many.

Looks like its coming around. Right or wrong, its a CTP special and I'd think most here would take it and run (even if we take totals and multiply by .6)

Great read as always. Good luck out there, you lucky bugger.

In truth, I'm not sure how many of us LSV/Lanco folk, were ever over expecting to be in the big stuff down here. Pattern never really suggested it, and thats why I've stated things about the column is going to be marginal for us, and dynamic cooling in higher qpf was needed for us. For the norther and westers, they should be fine. Nothing we've seen has been supportive of big snow here. Factor in knowing normal biases and climo for your backyard, and it should temeper any big expectations for US. Norther/westers....congrats in advance. For me anyway, my efforts have been to see a storm in for CTP during a time that pattern really hasnt looked great and was written off by some. if I get into the better stuff, then all the better, but my 3-6 for lanco is where my flag is placed, and I'll keep it there until shot down or we take the hill. Everyone has seen our area ranging from 1-8" model dependent, and I'm not gonna say well 25% of this and that worked, as I'm not that good and will not search for ways to say I was right. No matter the end result, the forum is staring down a decent winter event. Thats a win no matter how you slice it.

GEFS and GEPS have been hinting at LR basin look, and tellies are supportive of it. Hoping for ENS guidance to increase that look as it would be a nice pattern to get stuck in for a while. Frozen bowlin balls from the west w/ a 2 finger palm grip for extra left spin to hit us king pins here in the east. and yes....thats how I bowl.

Never heard what the problem was attributed to...but I've never stopped factoring that into my expectations. I'm stickin w/ my 3-6 gun as nothing overnight scared me off. Actually 6z euro that anthony posted was rather encouraging, as euro has been running warm. Regardless, I'm on the razors edge as usual, and have kept my expectations in check for the LSV, but as i suggested yesterday, Altoona (MAG) to Poconos are looking pretty sweet for a nice event.

Since Calhoun and 27’s guy left I stopped watching as well. Don’t miss local weather stations.

Said it the other day…Gotta smell the rain for the best snows. NAM looked way too paltry based on a ton of other guidance, but it has been locked once or twice before. signals been strong for too long. The words “toss it” come to mind (even if it knows something the rest don’t). That fits my feelings better for now.

well at least on the HH NAM, i'm safe from mixing.