pasnownut

Yep...Lag effect which is just beyond and depending on base state, can last for some time. Not sure of the sensible correlation, but it beats playing with voodo dolls to get snow.

Saving lots of heartbreak. Seems like this year so far, keeping things inside a 10 day window has brought some sanity back to the board. Its unfortunate that we have to do that, but for now, may be the safest way to proceed. It sure is fun to look way out and see great looking patterns, but when they dont materialize, its not worth the pain. Better to be pleasantly surprised (like we currently are wrt next week - even if we miss - we still are close.

Boy wouldn't that make the spirits bright..... Regarding low solar, if memory serves it the period just beyond that is when max benefit and I thought we just hit bottom a couple weeks back? Maybe i read wrong but hoping Im right. That stuff is way above my pay grade, but like you, i find it rather intriguing.

Thankfully i was joking when i said it, as i was concerned you were too far west, based on last 2 days of trends. Waiting to hear how the chester/philly /md line crew faired as this appeared to be "their" storm...if you want to call it that. onto the big rainer.....then we wait for next week, as there seems to be a couple of decent events in the offing. SER seems to once again be a fly in the snow ointment and I hope it doesnt spoil too many parties this year. The flow pattern isnt a clean one IMO.

Im sitting in Etown and they got a nice dusting over here. Not clinging to everything like it was at my house though. At home we got about 1-1.5" and it looked rather pretty with everything frosted. Pretty morning.

yeah, I agree and figured we may get a few hours of snow, but rates have been my biggest concern as the ground truth is its just too warm for much to accum, cept for the the grassy surfaces. Trust, me I'm fine w/ eatin crow while looking at a snow covered landscape....cause I still win in the end.... i've got a new smoker, so I'll try anything once :). gnight gang.

Yeah i was traveling today and really didnt get to see but bits and pieces in the MA forum. If thats not enough, look at the Christmas miracle that a few op runs are throwing up.... Like I said, definately not a boring pattern and one that given enough opps...can produce. Biggest takeaway of late is that the warm signal that was showing up seems to be getting beat down pretty well, and NAO looks to trend to the negative as the month progresses. Just need the PNA to not go neg and we might be in for some fun. Last years cutterville express was hard on the stomach, and it would be nice to be looking to the south....and not the west for a change.

see my post from earlier. I have you as the winner of this current deal w/ 2". 41 here w/ rain....plain ol rain. meh I'm still happy that are are close to the snow, as it beats the heck outta warm n dry. Looks like next week will be fun to watch as there are no overwhelming signals, but enough going on that something may pop. We're trackin and thats part of the fun for me. Enjoy your snow gang. I'm betting on some mashed taters down here, and if i'm wrong....I'll be glad to admit it.

They do have good beer. Just sayin

I'll take your word for it......................

I've become a fan of the AO in recent years, and we CAN do alright with that in our snow camp. Good to hear. add to that NAO headed neutral, and we can do ok w/ zonal bowling balls.

No...your just a wise old man....

Does anything?? Good luck down there gang. i hope you cherish every snowflake you see while looking out the window at 3 am... I'm sleeping through this one in hopes of a morning surprise.

Never had a good feeling about tonight and still don't. I think some late night mood snows that whiten the ground here and there are in the offing, but not much more than that. Post frontal has to be timed right and while column cools, we still have warm ground to overcome, and with light qpf, its going to be hard to get much out of it. I'm happy to be talking about it all the same. 2" pop in CASHTOWN is my bet and i'm stickin with it ;). (thats more of a joke btw). I said it in the MA forum yesterday that while there is no strong/overwhelming signal, there is enough in the neutral camp to not write of next week, but timing is even more critical. Looks like overnights timed next week favorably. Another one to track....i'm game. No shutout pattern is and has been my bar for many years, as I'm a realist. LIke mag said, NAO headed to neutral is workable if timed right. IMO we need the ridging out west to to stay neutral or +. Otherwise, we get a trough in the SW and without NAO/AO help....that never bodes well round here.

thats a neutral pna right there, and why we can still get something to come across and be close enough for something to watch. We've seen far worse looks. Not saying this is a snow pattern whatsoever, but its also not a close the shades/toaster bath either. While we all search for snow, above is quite normalish IMO.

Thats been in my mind as well. LR guidance has been challenging at best. With no dominant tellies (MJO AO etc.) to force anything good or bad, its more of a meh period that can still have a surprise or 2. In my mind, PAC firehose is biggest concern, and as long as we have +PNA things can break in our favor. That is about to go neutral, so a period of meh is likely.

Saw the 6z earlier at home, and yeah, thats what I was hoping for, a little south tick, as we all know how things "adjust" come go time. Hey, were inside 48 so its likely somethings happening, just need to see who gets lucky and who's watching. As I stated last evening, we typically struggle to get to cold enough down east of the blue ridge, but if rates get decent, we could get slush bombs for a while.

#coldbias I wanna believe, but we all know how these kinda deals work out. Cold seems to always be delayed until best precip has exited stage left... Boy I wanna be wrong for once

with NAM/GFS and Euro all coming around to the idea, I think we might have a legit threat here. Never a fan of changover deals here in the LSV, but with such a consensus, it's not impossible. I wish best accums were still south of the MD line for me to feel comfy. Looks like a Chambersburg to Allentown special IMO. Maybe a slushy inch or 2 down here if were lucky....but hey, even I get lucky once in a while....

12z GFS colder surface reflected in snowfall distribution as it also ticked SE. But if its still the GFS we know and love....its right where CTP wants it :). Going to get my tree today. Nice way to start the day. Have a good one gang.

fwiw, GFS is a tick colder thru 60 should help, and is only a couple ticks away from a nice little event to make it feel festive around here.

divide by 2 and I'm betting most would be happy. I am. Lets see if you can go 2 for 2 bud.

was thinking the same thing, as yeah this week is a rollercoaster w/ temp/precip/mood swings :)., then next week looks to be another step in the right direction. Still doesnt look to lock in, but flow thickness's are getting right that as long as we keep thrown precip this way, were gonna hit on some of them. Typical for our region...especially at this time of year. Beats the blazes outta warm n dry....

There is a half truth to that statement. Just because we got snow (well some/most) earlier this week, and most are on the proverbial snow board....it really is quite early to be knee deep in tracking, as climo says close be not quite yet. I will say it has been rather wintry up in the northern tier, as they've had multiple snow events, but southern tier is still a late fall feel. Looking at the nooners, says we should continue to progress towards show time round here. I'm happy to see normalish with no anomalous warm/cold. Good by me... for now....

all good. Carry on... Heres to a better tomorrow.