pasnownut

Nothing here in the Lanco snowhole.... My 1-2" is in trouble.

Enough going on in the NAO space that we can see Episodes of it as the season progresses. Been a decent start so far and I’d think most sensible folk dont expect wall to wall winter.

12z NAMs say you may well be right. Much less taint as well, but still likely w/ part 2

NAM is good at drying up at this juncture. It’ll likely back tomorrow at this time.

Yeah, seems that if you took a 1/3 blend of each we'd be sittin perty. Gotta give props to @frd as he has been saying that we may see notable changes in the mid range and in....seems like he's onto something, no matter the result. Fun tracking ahead gang. Have a good rest of your day. Off to a holiday party.

this happens with WAA. I think as we close in, the models will come around...or we just see Meso's pick up on it closer to show time.

yeah thats a definite possibility with this deal. We are close either way.

One thing that is in our favor, is that WAA usually is under modeled, and we tend to overachieve with setups like this. I think thats what Blizzy is suggesting. You are sitting in a nice spot pal.

Bingo buddy boy.... E/W orientation pf WAA precip shield looks to limit Nward progression of thermal boundary. I do agree w/ Mr. Trainer guy that taint is also likely, even to some rain, but we are close to all frozen (as per GFS which has been the warm on in the group). IF the Euro stays south, I'm hedging bets that our first widespread wintery event happens on Monday. Upper air flow is conducive to it.

I've got NO probem with that. Seeing the nooners adjust slightly further south still says that we are close to at least an appreciable front end period of frozen, and it we get 2 more ticks south, would likely be mostly frozen as thermal boundary would likely follow south. Looking further beyond, a week from today all eyes could be on a pre Christmas doozy, that could give a white christmas to some that rarely see it. Looking forward to seeing how the pattern shakes out for next week and beyond. Fun times ahead.

and as I said the other day, the closer/quicker we get precip in here on the heels of the weekend rainer, the better, as any WAA will be coming into a cooler column, and thats how we can get frontended a bit. Based on GFS pattern, any appreciable frozen is not likely IMO. Taint too quickly. Gotta hope the Euro wins the day and we have a chance for some fun.

No you got it right. GFS has been in the warm camp (believe it or not). has been trending better till 18z, then ridging seemed to creep back north a bit in the east. Look at NAM nest as it will soon be adding more clues for next weeks potential storm. At this juncture, look at 500/700 panels as they will give you clues to where it goes. From their you can form your best conclusion as to what kind of precip will fall and where based on thermal profiles and wind. Welll thats how i do it anyway.

coming around are we.... Nice to see the Christmas warmup being muted to meh status. I think we all can take that. Just no skorts weather is all i ask anyway. Will be interesting to see the evolution of the NAO and EPAC in the coming days.

Really dont think you are off your rocker (weather wise anyway ). Especially if the LR looks that seem to be morphing into an active early winter pattern shaping up. Not saying blockbuster, but run of the mill offerings isnt as far fetched as some may think. Really liking seeing the NAO popping and the PNA heading pos. Split flow as some models are hinting at, can be fun times round here.

Based on what?? Please let us know what your seeing? Not sure how much you read, but the base state is much more conducive to at least windows of opportunity. NAO EPAC MJO are all showing signs of wanting to play along this year, or at least not be stuck in bad phases. Do we score, well that/s anybody's guess, but the signals are pointing to good trackin weather (hunter in me) snow or no snow. Daxx, I'm right w/ ya bud. I think we may be tired in the foreseeable future.

and to further your point, last year we had faux NAO projections which really mucked up some good periods (in addition the MJO that liked the #6). This year we actually have what appears to be legit opps at -NAO, and MJO moving along, which makes the base state much more workable when things line up right.

That's a great point to remind folks of. WRT to early next week, if we speed up a bit and keep it close on the heels of weekend rainier, that could keep the ridging in check for the wintry offerings to be in play for some of us.

@Atomixwx Way too early to speak with any finality about early next weeks outcome. If you are solely going off the GFS then sure, but Euro/CMC and Ukie all show a more southerly track of the primary, as flow at 500 are showing less ridging east of the Miss. If that system speeds up or stays close to weekend event, that will better the chance for more frozen. IMO we really wont know till Saturday as there will be a couple subtle shift that could have a notable impact on outcome. Its not far away from a decent event, even if we do taint. Stay tuned.

IF TPV drops in you may need said brick wall....

@psuhoffman After looking over op, gut says you may like 12z a bit more. This does have potential as wave spacing may be close enough from weekend deal that we have better flow out ahead and get some WAA loving from this deal.

was just parsing over 500/700 and less ridging (by a little), but a baby step imo.

Thats what my extrapolating mind was thinking. Spacing looks better and HP doing its dirty work in the east. Heres to hoping

Is it just me or does the GFS have a good look for follow up (at 96)? Liking trough axis for next vort coming out of SW. I guess we'll know shortly.

That's your answer right there. Its funny how those of us that have been hobbyists/pros for so long (25yrs of hobby/passion/learning for me) have seen this all too many times. Despite advances, Mo nature still and always holds the dealer hand. Advances are merely tools towards a hypothesis.

LOL I'll try anything to get my precious snow.