pasnownut

Ops this far out are going to bounce around like a ping pong. Not unexpected IMO. step 1. keep the cold in the east step 2. keep the storms coming along step 3. wait patiently (hardest step)

I’ve been called WAY worse. Just havin fun.

I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help.

BUT...........if this one doesnt work out....I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be quite busy in the next couple weeks as it looks rather active and with the NAO trending more favorably, the flow at 500 (with the exception of maybe a day or 2) really looks to support a notably colder regime. IF we can keep the storms coming, the odds of putting some snow on the boards would likely increase notably as we get into Feb. Here is GEFS at 234.....nice PAC ridge and trough in east. NAO is there and verbatim thats cold and hopefully snowy.

IMO Too far out to really dig deep. With the variability on the models we need some continuity. Best takeaway is that we have stuff to track and if all works out we will need plows n shovels. Personally I’m happy to be in the game. Looking forward to tracking what seems like a legit threat window.

GFS is right where we want it. 1step closer. 49 more to go....

Seeing that the SE is potentially getting in the action is a great sign. edit. What blizzard just said 5 seconds before I did.

I expected some elevation and isolated “winners” with this one but late pop of secondary started to show up and I pulled chips off as soon as I saw that. Glad for those who are scoring.

Gotta love the internet.

and ground truth says its always a safer bet to say "it ain't happening" wrt snowstorms and be right 90% of the time.

No..... its not me.........I"m much cuter thank that.

I'd sh!t twinkies if that were to verify..... Naked snow angels in the drifts.....

I'm deserving for sure and to add to your point, it gives us wiggle room for the undeniable "north jog", but that said, at 210 it retrogrades right off SE NJ coast. Verbatim we'd likely be safe w/ it tucked in close as general rule of thumb w/ coastal like this is that once storm gets to your latitude, you are usually safe as column is as warm as its gonna get, and any marginal boundary layers would crash and we snow....like hopefully CCB snow.....like lotsa CCB snow. Stall that beeyatch. OK, way too much analyzing an op run at 8 days....sure is perty though.

can't wait sorry Happy Friday (for the next 6 hours anyway)

Stick around for a few more years/decades and you come to understand that while statistics have helped to make great strides in this sport, coming at it from an A +B=C mindset will drive you off the ledge. Look at the last 2 years for example. Stats can surely help, but a changing environ/base state are not able to be accurately factored in, and with so so many variables with any given event, IMO it is really a blended approach of statistics/physics/models/and a keen understanding of how it all comes together. While statistics are a big help, they also can lead to false hope/despair. Think about it.

they just call it sore ass for short.

Heeeyyyyyyyyy now your talkin

Uh....If that happens, I'm going down to the southeastern forum and virtually throat punchin someone.

Dude, that't the best phrase I've read on this board all year.

at least wear and tear/ maintenance on my sleds has been cheap this year. My grass is pretty F'd up tho.....

IF we cant laugh shit off....what else ya gonna do?

looking early on at 18z happy hour kickoff, one can see the effects of the HP up in Canada....it makes it to NE PA and its underwhelming for them. pun intended....that WILL cut it get it....cut it ya know cut to friggin SE WISCONSIN. UGGHHHHHHH

Can’t hit the like button but good post. No cold above us.....Miller Bs just suck more than normal.

get that column to collapse a bit and verbatim that's plenty close enough to overcome. the good new is that while not a flip to fantastic....a new look is looming in the LR and it should be better for our chances.