pasnownut

If one looks over nooners so far, the guy who really needs to worry about getting jipped...... is me. based on LP evolution best forcing shows cashtown taking all the marbles again, and then Lanco snow dome goes into full effect. Nam's and GFS see this. Could just be noise, but....it has my attention. I think most here are going to enjoy a nice interlude between the episodes of ugliness.

as i posted yesterday, ENS guidance it starting to open doors for the way out of this crappy regime. Still concerned about a few things, but seeing the Aleutian and Scandy ridging changes gives hope that a new regime will be coming once we get beyond 10 days. Still a long ways out, so caution is definitely warranted.

yessir

Based on model consensus, I think slippy PM commute is a given. At T-6 hours to onset, I'm not sure enough can go wrong for a true miss for much of CTP/LSV. I wouldnt be suprisded to see nooners tick a bit S (based on years of model watching), but that still keeps most in the game (except maybe IPT). Thats just a hunch though. One of the nice things about this storm, is that its evolution has been similar to what we are traditionally used to, as it crept back to us inside 72hrs...which happens quite frequently.

Not worried about the warmth. DP's are low and while we may "lose" a bit of snow early on while column cools, your second bullet should "fix" that. Waaayyy down here in the LSV we MIGHT get a little bit of white rain, but I'd think it very minimal.

Yeah I’m just glad to see the consensus showing up. I’m not sure if I cracked 3” yet. beggars we are.

Wow, it really has been late to the party on this one, but verbatim is trying to bud in line to steal the dance w/ the class cutie... It is a typical bias of the GFS to lose then find the storm, so this isn't something new....even though the model is :). If one toggles through the 500's you can see it tucking in a little tighter to the coast and parsing over the ICON and NAM, they all have a somewhat similar evolution and consensus on this event. I'll gladly take it. Even if it is gone in a few days. Funny thing is there is enough time for another subtle shift or 2 (good or bad)

That's a very valid point. PAC is and has been the primary driver as we all know that's where our weather comes from, but you don't need a +2 PNA to get what we want if you can get the AO/NAO to get off their high horses (currently +3 and +1), and as they trend to neutral (or better), it doesn't take a ton of things right to score in prime climo (look at tomorrow night and next weeks potential warm spell buster - if it verifies). Mind you this doesn't scream snow in the streets for days either, but in a less than stellar year, you take what you can get and get over the rest - well at least that's how I roll..... On the bright side, my snowmobiles arent getting beat up. I'm really trying here guys so work with me

@Blizzard of 93What a way to ruin the warm fuzzy weather....boy Im sure this is pissin some off. Heck the Tug Hill is getting smoked right now. I didnt see that coming as I've been blinded by the doom n gloom of late....and yes, it is somewhat justified. Last couple days there have been several decent ensemble runs and another window amidst the warmth as the 18th through 20th appears to have a relaxation of the ridging here in the east, and the west appears to be realigning to a more workable scenario. This is per the GEPS. If one looks further out at the GEFS, you can see the Aleutian ridge progressing east and in turn a more broadbased flow establishes in the PAC NW. I'm not cherrypicking what i want to see, as I'm seeing both good, bad, ugly and better, and trying to sort through it all. Here is the GEFS showing better ridging out west and this isn't far from workable at all. Yes this is way out beyond where i like to look, and no this isnt a flip to crazy good, but its better. We all know its wash rinse repeat for the next 7-10 days, so there's no use beating the dead horse anymore. We just need to get over loosing another good week in hopes that winters staging some kind of comeback. AO and NAO both show some help and are trending down as we get beyond next week, so lets hope the models continue to adjust accordingly. MJO goes lower amplitude towards the COD, but still in warm phases, but as I stated some time back, as we have no overwhelming signals this year, we need to look at all signals, and blend as best as we can IMO. If one looks at the EPS at end of run, you can see the Scandy ridging established which would lend credence to the AO/NAO signals potentially having some merit. Like I said, i promised myself to not get invested beyond 240, but there is a strong enough signal to write off the mid term and look beyond for signs of winter. If we can sneak something in next week (which I'm a little skeptical about), it would be nice to help salvage something out of this ugly period.

Agreed. Scandinavian ridging looks less than last few runs and that really degraded the press of cold on "our side", as we know we need something to dislodge things upstairs. trough in SW is killin us and IF we cant get help from AO/NAO we are really reaching for how it can work. Just no way to sugarcoat it for now.

this period has been on the radar for a while and its good to see things trending better for us snow starved weenies. Looking forward to next weeks wintery stretch. Not going to discuss the ugliness beyond, as i know some lurking see it as well. Scandinavian ridging has been showing up and now looks to be less than ideal, and we really need help in the AO/NAO space to dislodge lobes of the TPV and get them into the conus. Lets just focus on next week and see how long we need to shut the shades till we are back to trackin. I'm REALLY not ready to talk about plants n crops blah blah blah (but hey if its happening, it is what it is).

I'll eat crow just for sh!ts n giggles if that helps.

Just saw that. Yeah nice to see the Southern press of cold on our side as a result. While I'm not a fan of looking WAY out beyond d10, it appears to anchor in and hold through the end of the run.

Agreed. I think we looking at different ways to a better pattern (and for me just a serviceable one is all I'm asking for) as I'm a realist and dont waste any time wishing for things to happen. I just make a life making lemonade outta lemons if you will. As long as I see that blue blob in the SW, we literally and figuratively will be sweatin it out here in the east w/o help from AO/NAO domains. Just gotta hope that one or both come to save us.

with all due respect, give it 6 hrs.....

I'm concerned that if you get your retrograde and there is no blocking.....its flip flop Feb. around here. There will be a ridge bridge alright, but it will be in the east starting in Venezuela right up to Nova Scotia. I mentioned the tellies, because when we see AO trending neut/neg, that is something that can and does happen. NAO has been rather elusive at best. It would be interesting to how many modeled and verified AO's vs NAO's have come to pass in the last decade or 2. Looking to see how and if ENS guidance starts to reflect AO in the next couple days. GEFS today says keep waiting.

I'm looking at current ENS guidance as well as tellies. I've been a fan of the AO and i've stated that in the last couple years, and in my mind, if we can shove that ridge east and couple it with -AO, thats a nice combo to play with. Tellies show that trending more favorable, so thats where my chips are headed. Point is there are more than a couple ways to do this. Im not judging whos right or whats best, I'm talking about what guidance is showing us. Thats all.

Yeah that definitely works, but when looping through the ens, it also seems to have that stubborn trough in the SW, and as Ens guidance started to show on yesterdays 12 GEFS, that Aleutian ridge showing signs of progressing east in my mind is a good thing as the trough axis suppresses any WAR and creates a boundary (albeit zonal) that can lead to some opportunities around here. If NAO/AO arent going to help much, that ridge moving east at least keeps the door open for cold intrusions into the central/eastern areas. If those last to mentioned indicies decide to help, then we really get a nice longwave track that gets us all in the game. Tellies suggest those 2 domains trend better for us.

I'm about ready to sacrifice something to the weather gods..... At least based on the stats you shared, we have around a 40% chance of a -AO, and the AO has been responsible for some decent stretches of winter so theres that....... While unfortunate that we will likely lose some of Jan, if we can come around in what is typically the easiest month for it to snow, we'd all take a normal to rockin Feb.

from my view at Ops, we have all but GFS showing a r to MAYBE s solution for LSV. GFS says cutter. As normal of late, boundary layers are marginal, so verbatim, I'd think we would see normally favored N and W locals getting in on frozen, and we ride the line in the lower LSV. 0z Nam continues to follow CMC and ICON path (looking merely for continuity/consensus) but 850's are not cool enough. Looks like enough qpf for some to overcome and wetbomb for favored locals (cashtown/mag/kx), but its another tough one down here IMO. If anyone wants snow again, go hug the CMC for all its worth, as it shows several chances to score next week, and storm number 3 for weekend of 1/10 extrapolated looks tasty. Mind you I only say this for eye candy right now, as we've been a little starved for nice looking storms around here. The good news is that there is enough lining up for next week to give any winter solutions some merit and worth watching (starting to get a bit footballed out anyway).

Thx Mag. Happy New Year to you and yours! Yeah, looking at flow for next week, we should be able to score something (front end or maybe bettter), and for that I'm personally not investing much time beyond as we have enough to do to land this one, let along get wrapped up too far beyond (NAO/AO support next weeks window). Beyond that MJO says get out the tanning lotion, but I'm not buying in too much yet, as we've see enough flux in the last 2 weeks that we may trend to a less ominous solution beyond next week....or maybe it gets worse (if thats possible). Is what it is, and I'll be lurking/sniffing out the next window all the same.

Hey Geez. Happy New Year! Yep, I'm a big lover of snow and snowmobiling. I like you, used to chase snow (Tug mostly, but Canada too). I purchased a cabin in 2007 in Tioga County PA and thats where I call home for my sledding fix. I too have spend a lot on sledding, but knew that once the cabin was purchased, that would end much of my chase as disposable income was used to reno it. No regrets whatsoever, but as I'm now 50, i'm getting too old to chase every weekend, but we still luck into decent sledding in Northern Pa, although last couple years have been a bit tough on the carbides. That said, yeah I suggested sometime back in the fall, that the "new norm" was throwing a wrench into analog usage, and the accuracy therein. I'm not sure this is necessarily the new norm as much as a new base state to use moving forward (as you suggest). One needs to be reminded that we've had many stretches of ugly over the last few decades. The difference is that we now have access to so much more data, that when something looks good, we tend to jump in and wanna believe, because we've evolved so much. As we are all weather enthusiasts, it's always best to remember that Mo Nature holds the cards, and is good at throwing wrenches into the best patterns/forecasts. On the flip side, look at how the southern mid atlantic has cashed in a couple years back, while northern PA couldnt buy a snowflake. Ebbs and flows of this sport/passion I guess. Here is to hoping that once beyond this next period of ugly (1/10-17 ish), that we can see signs of better sledding. Nut

man, I'm tellin ya....its just hard to look at. Its just painful to look at the ens. runs and see the ugliness. Only sliver of hope I could find is that at least there is less cutoff in the SW, and the flow is more zonal, but any flexing of the WAR and we will cook.

Hey Matt. Happy New Year. Yeah I was thinking the same thing wrt to the "new pattern" as this seems to be a repeat of last years cutterfest. Don S suggested that this may be related to warmer SST's and a new base state as a result. MJO seems to be favoring warmer 5/6 as well and he sees the link between the 2. Sure hoping its just a seasonal blip, but makes one wonder. Nut

this answers my (others) questions as to why the MJO wants to get stuck into warm phases. Makes sense for sure. Thanks for the insight.