pasnownut

Boy, this event makes me miss snowmobiling on the hill (I am headed back in a couple weeks - conditions permitting). Based on wind direction alone, I'd give unnecessary body parts to be sitting in or @ Sears Pond/Montague/Carthage/Lowville for this event. Seems like of late, southern tug ie. Redfield/pulaski/altmar areas have been the winners. This has a true WSW component until the death band starts it pivot south tomorrow. Cams looking pretty good right now (on the hill mind you). Enjoy. Nut

Yeah, I've gotta say that when I saw some of the totals being thrown around yesterday, I was a little surprised. This storm, like every other this year, is on the move, and with the progressive theme intact, I think its tough for the widespread totals to verify. Of course, wrt the LES banding, there will be some winners for sure, but as that band presses south tomorrow, it really never "sets up" for anyone. IMO, I think you can take totals and divide by 2. Boy I hope I'm wrong, but the fetch looks more like an unmanned firehose. All that said, I'm still really jealous and happy for you guys. Take what you can get in this craptastic winter. Good luck.

Tug Hill. www.northernchateau.com

Im checkin in from the "next state down". I'm pulling for FEET for everyone up there. We are living vicariously through you all. What a suck ass winter down here.

Thats something I've been pondering over....banding, and how it can be a bandit, stealing away ones snow, while burying another local. It seems that the flow will vacillate a bit friday evening, but I could see what you (and some models) suggest happening. If i were taking the sled up to the hill, I'd be looking at Montague to Redfield as well....but I'm also not convinced that the larger scale synoptic event happens for "everyone".

but weve seen +5 AO this year...and it wasnt that bad last year ( Im sure you and your stats gurus can find that # out for us). That said, the boundary line has reacted accordingly and went further North....so we cut further west (which can work when the AO/NAO are neg enough to keep the boundary closer.

HMM?? You dont see the red blob above Nova Scotia?? And if that's not good enough, the AO/NAO are headed down at this time. Blocking is less important when those 2 are - and pressing south as they force the boundary below us. I'd take my chances any day and 2x on Sunday's w/ that look....even if it doesnt work out.

I saw like 17 snowflakes on the way in this morning. Swear to God i did..............

mmmmm...mm...good

Just looking over 12z ENS and it appears that the GEFS/EPS are continuing to show a quicker/better look starting around 7 days from now, and fwiw, it looked rather decent through the rest of the run. GEPS not quite as quick, but still getting there....closer. Gut says that as long as all stars continue to align, we may have a late season tracking session coming up.

That would be funny.

"Groomers" are basically de-oxiginating the snow....thus making whichever (real/man made) more dense. Some years back on the Tug Hill....my sled broke down, so I spent the day in a groomer with the Barnes Corners Sno Pals groomer operator...asking all kinds of questions to Paul as to what they do and why they do it. As at that time, i was just getting involved w/ our club up at the cabin, and at time we had a groomer. Pretty cool stuff if your into snow. Sorry if the off topic stuff is boring any. Consider it your useless trivia for the day.

Maybe someone can clarify, but I think the density of man made is greater than natural, giving it more resiliency. I know when I skied, I preferred the real deal....but man made is better than nothing at all.

No worries...was just adding to your point. I only brought the others in because unlike a ski slope....we rely solely on the lakes or synoptic events to "do our thing". I can go to roundtop/poconos tonight and still get my snow fix in. That's what I was gettin at.

If you saw my post the other day wrt something needs to pop on the base of the trough that is getting established.....you're seeing what I was hoping for. CMC had a good one show up this morning....but its the cmc.....and its an op at length....and we know how this years been. Short of that, we've got a chance.

you can add snowmobiing, ice fishing..... I think you are spot on w/ it being more episodal than epidemic. Now if 10 years from now, we are still where we are.....we're gonna need to rethink our thinking.

Yeah....thats for sure. When you are lacking a 120-160 deg fetch off the lakes, and you are too far south in latitude to avoid being cut....yeah its ugly for them as well. They have had more than a handful of events (and were snowmobiling in the laurels over the last 2 weeks....but they like most south of 80 cant hold in this pattern.

I"m blaming the

actually from the northern tier of Pa through much of NY straight into the Dacks to southern VT/NH is doing pretty well for the last 3 weeks. Here's links to snow cams as i dont want any to think I'm making stuff up. http://www.northernchateau.com/ http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/

As I said, i'd not bet on anything locking in, as the progressive theme of winter is hard to argue against. I'm not thinking about much of anything beyond 10 days (as I stated earlier this "winter"). To your point, yeah, we do find ways to do cold n damp spring rather well round here.

Id not use an op beyond 5 days as you know swings can be rather drastic run to run (your comment yesterday to Blizz about one run showing a snow event to next showing a cutter....), but thats up to you. I used 18z panels from ENS guidance for max warmth (to not show any bias that I may have towards cold)

For those looking for a little hope for winter to start/return... here is the EOM on current guidance. AO/NAO both are coming down as we enter the last week of Feb, so that to me supports the return to colder in the east. Only fly I see is the PNA also trending to Neut from a +1ish setup, but to me the cold looks legit and seems to fit the base state. Ens guidance seems to have lost the cutoff in the SW which would have cooked us once again. EPS has been known to do that, but it seems to initially dump towards the SW then is progressive and keeps the 500's moving along. to what we see below. I'd not feel comfy about anything locking in, but a legit window is there IMO.

Not sure where thats coming from but yeah next week looks to warm for a few days. Warmest panel i could find among the ensembles. Its fair to say that maybe things warm as we get closer. +6 still sucks in Feb. and for the lovers of the Euro.

Yeah, I was trying to focus on the flow and how verbatim on 12 Ens, they all seem to have things going beneath/under us then or shortly after, and that has been a big challenge in the last 2 years. That in itself is a good sign, but yeah, seeing the hights in Canada (a la GEFS) verbatim is just another wasted window. I just know that as long as we have things going under us, it is still the time that it can happen, and we've seen that multiple times in the past few years as we approach spring.