pasnownut

also looks a little better than 12z early on w/ LP. Also a little further south w/ frozen. No nuts kicked here. Some just dont over analyze an op run at 5 days. We look for trends and there really has been little new here. As I stated earlier today, thermal profiles are what are most important, and 18z was a notable improvement at 700/850's. Supports more frozen. Actually I'm quite happy with what i just saw. Nice step for CTP

Id take null vs strong 6 in a heartbeat.....just sayin.

As many times as hes ridden the good ship "ECMWF" to its death, he really takes away from his credibility. Its a great model, but not perfect as we all know too well.

If we can sneak a primarily frozen event in for the first storm of the "pattern change", that is EASILY a win for me (us?).

who cares......... Used to like his reads, but when he got too full of himself....that ended that. Plus he's often wrong.

and to narrow the goalposts a bit per the good convo above, knowing our regional climo here says w/ a setup like this, and what we are seeing on the maps, gut says very little pure liquid if at all. Warm nose gets into Oh, but CAD structure should show up inside of 24-36 as we near go time. Thermal profiles should support more sleet. If 700 warms then ZR wins the day. On the other hand Trainers 2-4 is really a legit call w/ an event like this. As the storm track seems to be pretty well defined. Keep an eye on the HP. Thats the money ticket for frozen. If that loses strength or gets outta here more expeditiously in the next couple days....well you know what that means.

Definitely something that we deal w/ and agree w/ you guys. Only potential plus is the power of the 1040ish hp that departs slowly and gets down to 1039. If that verifies, it will surely anchor in the lower levels as Mag alluded to. One needs to be reminded that CAD is often under modeled, so that is something to consider when putting the storm puzzle together. Snow maps are just for giggles, but I love laughing.

I feel the same way. I enjoy winter and the look of it. Snow falling is best, but as long as it sticks around...I can get over infrequent snows. Looking forward to this upcoming period and glad to see it growing legs.

Looks like the 12z GFS continues a better trend w/ LP and 500's as it continues to flatten the ridging. If this trend continues, I could see this being mostly frozen for many. at 114, you can see a better placed HP and slightly stronger, which shows a better CAD structure. Nice start to lunch. more to come..........

Back from the cabin, and getting back into the swing of things. Looks like you guys did a good job of keeping the ship heading in the right direction. Exciting times ahead. Nice to see Euro/GFS on similar trains of thought, and w/ the Euro coming in better...its a great spot to be in. LR guidance says cold looks to hold for a while. Not parsing over detaiils too much but its nice to see reds and blues where they belong on the 500's.

Was up at cabin muzzleloader hunting. No sledding this weekend. I can’t change what happens weathwise and just deal with it. As I’ve said for years...us snow lovers get 3 months so the other 9 we watch. That’s my rub. All good.

Dont offer it 2x bud. I'll bring sleds for some group fun. I even have a pull behind sled for snowmobiles. I so could see Sauss sittin in it layin back w/ a MHL (miller hi life) in hand as we chug along...(kidding of course-sorta). Just gotta figure out how to get the other 8 guys onto 2 snowmobiles......hmmmmm

and too much attention to the bong..........

Montague/Brantingham is where i stayed. I do miss it up there. LIve feed

I couldnt agree more.....but some will see the rain and call it just another way to fail.... we all know who they are J I

Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out.

eagles out so.... x2

Cabin. Gaines Pa (15 miles W of Wellsboro). No sledding (although reports of folks riding - and few friend on the way to Potter to do so today/tomorrow, before we lose it all.....again). Late season muzzleloader is one of my favorite times to be afield....I dig primitive stuff, and love the fresh air of winter. Have a couple guys/my dad and my son coming up this and next weekend to do the same. Going to let the trees talk to me and take in the beauty of our northwoods. Hoping to be back up w/ sleds in next couple weeks though. I did Tug for many years prior to purchasing the cabin, but have spent my extra $$ making our cabin a cozy lodge, so bye bye Tug....but getting closer to complete so maybe Tug will be back in my future. f you love snow/snowmobiling, one needs to go up during a Lake Effect outbreak. It is C R A Z Y sh!t to witness. When its snowing too hard and snow is too deep to see trails/signs.....it is just AWESOME!! Ya'll need to add it to Snow Weenie Bucket list. I've sledded in 11'...yes....11' of powder up there. You couldn't stop sled, or it would sink (that really really sucks btw). Step off and sink to your chest. Yup....thats the good stuff.

Is this YOUR call............ I'm just playing around w/ yall. We all just need to keep it real as we see better days ahead, but one needs to proceed w/ caution, cause were always 1 indice away from crappin the bed....

Yeah, I've seen them being thrown around.... its hard not to want to buy in, but even if a portion of those to analog years verify, we'd be dancing in the streets.....clothing optional. Analog years are a HUGE resource, but as we all know....so so many pieces of the puzzle to factor in, and recent questions of their accuracy due to changing climate have some merit (in some minds anyway). Surely the more pieces we have in our favor over the coming days....the better. Continuity is what one needs to be looking for during the next few days. I"m going to be up north for a couple days, so I'll be looking from afar. Don't let me down guys....bring this change to our doorstep while I'm away. K?

I'm glad we see it the same. Yeah, we sure optimized a crack in the window earlier this week. No doubt and gotta love it when that happens. IF the recent updates on the MJO are correct/believable, and you roll forward the progression....it too would be another feather in our snow cap. Mersky in the MA forum rather boldy called this a couple days ago, and looking from the 10,000 ft view, one can see the logic in it. 7/8/1 is money phases for us. Concern i have w/ it, is that recent history suggests high amplitude MJO phases and progression in/out can be tricky. I'm sure MJO is factored into LR modelling, so what we see is a result of said indices factoring in, so in summary....proceed w/ caution.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying we are on the right side of the snow fence for EVERYTHING beyond D7, but if the pattern being advertised is real, the window of opportunity will be open much more than it has been for some time. If we set real/fair expatiations to win some lose some....we should be fine. We will be trackin for sure. I think the battlezone/boundary would vacillate in our general region, and in these types of deals, latitude is a big help. This is evident on the 500 panels, as a more zonal flow gets established w/ AO trending neutral and cold more readily available for us. One can see the wholesale shift in the regime. Something needed to change, and it appears to be doing so.

You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct. Nice call for this one...if it verifies. Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play. Ask DT.

I'll not post maps as most know how/where to get them, but I'll say that if one parses over the 500's and 2m temp anomalies starting next Thursday/Friday and beyond, you will find the keys to the party wagon. GEPS/Euro still in better agreement. GEFS still diverges a bit (but still has opps for fun looks notably better at 500). Aleutian/Scandy ridges are looking good and you can see the cold press south into the conus as a result. This is a continuation of the last few days and i say that because its growing enough legs to be considered a real change. GFS Op at 6z as Blizz alluded to is borderline NSFW (compared to what we've been looking at), as it shows a lot of opportunities with several under us into the Carolinas. At this juncture that is just fine, as the takeaway is that the boundary is about to become favorable for the east coast, and cutters wont rule the day during this time. Blending the Ops and Ens, I'm rather excited to see what things look like next week. Rest up Blizz.....

Happens every year so let’s just embrace it and get shovels ready for later next week and beyond. starting to think our turnaround is growing momentum so hang in there gang. Post more later. Off to office