pasnownut

Looking over hi res/mesos from overnight still appears to be on track w/ my gut from a couple days ago. If one looks at WRF suite you'll see a bit more focus on front end loving before we taint. Once we taint, it appears to be a small window (speaking relative to LSV locals) for that to happen before column cools (which most precip is done by then so snizzle/flurries at the end. I've been riding this frozen ship for a couple days and will take the wheel wherever it goes. This is the reason I'm here, and as Flathead suggested, it is a place to share ideas and gain insight. I've got broad enough shoulders and a firm base to support them, so if I fail....i can take it. Trainer and i said 2-4 call from a few days back and think its a good call. NC mountains look to be winners w/ best go at 6". TGIFF gang.

That’s been my take from a couple days ago. We have a thin warm nose we are seeing in models and rates coupled with antecedent cold can help to keep this more frozen and less wet. I’ve never bought into the big snow totals (and still don’t after peeking g at 0z NAM.), but this has the look of a sleet fest for some of us. still keeping my win bar at 2-3” with sleet to be the icing on my snow cake.

Well stated.

yeah, york cashed in while nearby locals....notsomuch we got around 2.5 - 3" in northern lanco sorry flathead, canderson is correct

ok.....who put the wheel lock on TT website. We stuck

sounds much like I've been saying for the last 2 days wrt thermal boundaries and whos gettting what. Glad he agrees w/ me Still think less rain though. 18z NAM says so as well. I'll hug it for helping me be right w/ my guess.

Ask Voyager the builder.

was supposed to be back at cabin this weekend. Kid is on snow removal "standbye" so we had to cancel. Bumm r

If one looks at ens guidance nothings over. Some just need to take a break. Its old.

Yeah. Quite lol worthy. I only took time to post the maps because I wanted to try to suppress the influx of "its over" posts..... and in truth...we're still trying to get "it" started.

fwiw, the ENS and Op are having a little infighting going on..... just a little...

crazy how different a couple model runs can go. 6z was nuts in snow dept and now its going to be about 1/4 of that (of which most falls this weekend.

absolutely. It too ticked South w/ 540's, so while we dont need to trust it...we'll take the trend for sure. CAD also showing up a bit more early on.

While the ICON is frozen/non frozen with no ice component built in....watch the southern tick across the MD line. Thats what we want to see for a better frozen outcome (especially us south of the Turnpike). These are the trends i look for. While its small and maybe considered noise to some, when your living on the edge...its everything. 6z 12z

Just parsing through the rest of the storm on the ICON, and i've gotta say that it really trended better in the front and back. Toggle through and watch the 540's (critical thickness where snow likes to live). You can see CAD early on and then backside collapse as column cools. Verbatim, there would be some surprises in there. That's purely model reading btw....

Yeah it is a shame, but gut says tonight we "moisten" up a bit (my wife L O V E S that word ) so as Trainer suggests, we should have cold enough ground to save every flake/pellet we get.

we like you buddy

watch the critical 540's back in from the NE at 54. CAD is doin its thingy.... I personally DID NOT expect the ICON to do this. Little model fight going on. I hope Z Germans win this one

if memory serves me....yep

Lets all go over to fbook and troll the sh!t outta them I'm game

Thats a good one....

NAM has a habit of juicing up as we near, so yeah I agree. Still alot of time left and with something like this, we are in the battle zone, so wiggles make a big diff to ones backyard. I'd take 1" of snow and 1" of sleet. No problem.

Looking at the wonderful "snowfall" map, suggests to me that sleet is a big part of LSV "accums".

Stronger warm push north evident as 850s and we lose them when we need them during max qpf, so ZR likely unless warm layer is shallow enough to stay IP.

snowdome blocks wind too?