pasnownut

Oh boy this is dangerous but what the heck..... If one extrapolates the 12z NAM progression, you can see similarities of past weekend event. Primary too far West and North, and no sign of transfer. For this to work, it needs to be showing signs of that happening at the end of the run. I'm not seeing it (believe me....I want to though). Its a shame to see a 5 contour close LP at 500 "wasted" like that. Mag, Blizz, Trainer, Bubbles....anyone....tell me what I'm not seeing Mind you, I want everyone to know that I'm NOT saying I'm right, but I love for someone to discuss (which is what we do here) as to why I'm off my rocker. Take a peek back at Saturday NAM run for past weekend event and look at surface features.....it should raise an eyebrow.

you are correct. I'm sure someone can find the 500's from these storms and you'd see what a clean A orientation looks like. B's always have a transfer/jump to the coast as storms like to look for energy. That jump is usually right over/around where we live. When we have enough cold above, it creates a dome of stable cold air that the LP runs into (think of a wall), and gets pushed to the right (the next source of energy/food - Atlantic. This forces the transfer to the coast and bombogenesis occurs and NE usually says thank you. The stronger the cold mechanism above, the better the chance for a further south transfer, which alows the "new" LP time to mature and hit us. Hope that explanation helps any that needed it.

96 @sauss06 we can get good storms from B's - and we have, but in truth the frequency is much more common for us, but our best storms IMO are like examples posted above. Clean A's, triple phasers.

93

And FWIW I dont want to sound like a debbie, cause yall know thats not me. The benefit, is that this storm is coming at us from a bit more favorable direction, and has more of a chance to score, but we can also just find another way to fail (a way we are all too familiar with when its a miller B). MIller B's gotta be just right for the LSV. We all know that. Just trying to bring a bit of grounding into expectations. North and Northeast crew should be lickin their chops.

While I want this weekend to work out, as soon as i saw yesterdays midday runs start to delay the transfer a bit, i started to think we were out on this one. Without a good solid source of cold air to force a transfer under us, there is no reason to think the flow wont stay progressive and transfer is too late for us. A 1025hp 200 miles north of northern Maine does nothing to help block up the flow. Thats why when Blizz shared CTP's musings about the storm i started scratchin my noggin. In the longer range, it looks like pattern remains the same with decent storms every few days, but as the pattern is, we really need help from the AO/NAO domains to press the whole pattern south....otherwise...you know the drill. I will say that looking at the morning ens runs, its hard not to like the looks. We've been teased a plenty, so peruse with caution

Yes it does. Its a little less vigorous a system and ticked ever so slightly east of 0z. ............pulls some poker chips back in from center of table (even though thats not allowed)

Best takeaway from 12z gfs, was the major move towards a chance. CMC is close enough to consider. Still not having good cold supply and relying on dynamics is a sketchy proposition, but hey, stranger things have happened.

Yeah just look on phone. We really need cold to stick around later this week as this evolution would need to manufacture its own cold otherwise it’s a dynamically elevation driven snow event and plenty of cold rain elsewhere. Come on euro....

at 108 CMC is vertically stacked. Gotta run but I'm guessing its gonna be a good one in the next couple panels. Sure hope so.

I'll hit the LIKE button for the rest of my forum pals.....

Guys go look at 66 on both GFS and CMC. Basically identical. Thats a good sign IMO. I say this in the veign of continuity. They diverge a bit beyond, but we need to understand where things start before we know where they are headed. And to that point, they seem to start off rather similarly. Hope that makes sense.

@Blizzard of 93 In truth, the movement in the last 24 hours tells me were not done moving yet, but seeing this match more in line w/ the Euro raises BOTH eyebrows.

actually its rather fitting as I'm probably the most SE of the forum, so its me all by myself. edit - Me and Superstorm.

Well well well....Looks the the ship better get patched up quickly. Go look at the 12z Op (snow map too if you want to brighten your Monday mood a bit). verbatim im fringed but 90% of you are getting a beatdown if this finds a way to hold (I know it likely wont, but for the next 6 hours I'm happy for y'all).

I live and grew up in Ephrata. lol Ephrata Black Forest Brewery - downtown near the Cocalico valley Historical society (if your into that) St Boniface Brewery - locally one of the best. Lititz Gen Sutter Inn Bulls Head - also a must Lancaster county Vinyard (down in southern end)

the mighty susquehanna. If you need fun places to go, pm me. I live here

and even if the above statement just misses...its still close enough for cold infusion into the storm and would bode well for western locals.

as I'm picking pieces of the puzzle apart for "how we can make it snow", seeing a 4 contour closed LP on the 500's just W/SW of the 850 LP is surely something to keep an eye on. IF they can pair up and vertically stack....we have a shot at this for sure.

Hes gonna have to...cause while the USS GooFuS didnt sink this past weekend.....we took on water and have some battle damage. We live to fight another day!

I said that in the MA forum yesterday when we were seeing models start to show something worth tracking. The next 4 weeks is about the easiest time for us to snow as climo is peak. We dont need perfect/epic patterns....we need it cold enough (or close by) and ALWAYS have a better chance then they are coming from the south....not the west.

wheres the LOVE button..... dont answer that....i already know.

Reverse psychology at its “finest”

But the look above that I liked showed 500 LP close enough to raise eyebrow. Yes we don’t typically, but if we were going to make some cold...climo says nows the time. That’s my point. Stack that 500 low and it will make its own cold.