pasnownut

We think alike pal. Exactly what I’ve been doing. I spend lots And lots of toggle time on maps in search of trends. I do it with 500’s, thermals and surface evolution. This one started too close for the LSV Imo and didn’t take much to put many on edge.

well...its AT the 10 day window..... #BEASTT

wow....now that i think back, that was crazy and I'm sure rather scary for you first responders. I did drive across and see the carnage. hearing the pressure heaves....just spooky.

Neither did I....let alone in a personal reference. Now I'm nervous for my next impending screw up.....it's been known to happen. In truth its all good and why I love it here. Sharing our passion for weather. (and the occasional snowflake).

Thanks guys. While I'm not a bit happy about it, I'm too old to bullshit and this weather stuff is serious bizz for us weenies. Onward and eventually upward.....I hope. (watch this thing trend S/E and we get a shellackin). Yall can come down and I'll by a round or 2 for wasting all of your time w/ my nonsense. That said, its why I'm here. I love the chase.

Yeah, your last sentence is the unfortunate truth. While I'm no met and NEVER try to imply as such, I've done this for so long that i feel I've honed my senses/abilities enough to smell a rat if you will. I've beat the horse a bunch, but with Miller B's we need a cold mechanism close by to work with. While we are in peak climo and it is "officially" the easiest time to snow....this pattern is close but no cigar if you will. The last 2 years we've been in a predominant cutter pattern, and until one of the mentioned indicies works into our favor (or PNA) changes, were kinda stuck. Yes, we sure can score in less than stellar patterns (and some likely will this weekend), but we live on the latitude fringe of winter if you will. If this upcoming event were shifted just a bit further south and east, I'd shut my pie hole. It could be worse, we could be in the MA who really is shutout in situs like this. I don't say that in a demeaning way either.....they've got no chance verbatim. At least we are in the game....till were out.

and fwiw, i do see the HP that is similarly placed to last weekends event (approx 200 miles N of Maine/Canadian border). Not sure that a 1035 has enough power/input that far N. Move it south to Lake Placid-Lake George, and I'm interested. Just dont see a mechanism for that to happen w/ flow pattern were in. Too much ridging out ahead. Need the letter H up where i referenced and i'm borderline giddy (or 50/50), or -AO. Without neg NAO/AO, HP's just scoot along like LP's. Gotta block da flo yo What the heck is wrong w/ me.....I think I'm broken..... all this debbie stuff just aint my jam.

lol i post and see Mags post above only after i hit submit. Hope your right Mag. You know a little bit more than I do.....

No blocking to the N....no way to slow/hold the storm down. Thats been my rub/ stance from early on. HP centered just east of us brings the southerly flow right up and ruins what marginal 850s were there. One then needs dynamics to overcome, and while they will, it will be more isolated/elevation driven vs widespread snowfall distribution. I've little doubt some on some mountaintops say "look at me and all of my snow", but by and large, lots of staring out the window waiting for most of us. Gang, this is just me and my feelings on storm evolution based on my 10,000' view...not a forecast. So wanna be wrong.

In other news, if the GFS is remotely close to correct, we are nowhere near done tracking. Plenty of decent events looming in the next couple weeks. Need cold air and towards the end (as always), it looks fun.

Getting to close for sizeable shifts, but yes, 25 -50 miles is possible and can make a big diff. for some. I've been out since Monday, so heck yeah, I'm rooting all of you on from the sidelines.

^^^^this well said.

Yeah if that look holds it’s a nice weekend to head north. GFS has been pretty consistent with LP just SE of us. actually rolling back through the last couple runs I’d say it looks better the last few. WSPT is sittin perty for this one.

Yeah I know. Some kind of cold mechanism has to show its hand soon or a much earlier transfer needs to occur to get 850s to crash for LSV to join the party IMO. I just don’t see another way. Isnt it weird to see me being all Debbie? Dont worry... I don’t like it either.

I won’t....I promise. I was in a weakened state. Sorry for mucking up a snow thread.

Not if ones lives in Lancaster County.

Just got off conference call. Not the "happy hour" kickoff we were hoping for. Hoping its just the NAM WAAYYY beyond useful range. Ugh.

and it was the GEM.....

Tried to explain that in my other forum this morning. With marginal and retreating antecedent cold....were cooked. Only winners would be elevation and max precip areas that are close enough to having column cool during best precip. The rest of us its the occasional spoonful of mashed taters at best. Boy i wanna be wrong on this one, cause we are starting to hear the tic toc of the winter clock.

12z shows the energy diving in that wants to get us the transfer. but IMO its gonna be really close around here. Shows primary dying off a bit sooner and transfer is cleaner than 6z. This IS a path to victory (for some). This is also the trend we need to see in the coming days. Sooner the better (transfer wise).

Thats definitely a better look. 6z gfs is where part of my worry came from . See below

FWIW, Z Germans make the transfer at 78, but the transfer is to southern tip of WVA. Us LSV'rs need antecedent cold to over preform w/ that track. Verbatim, LP does stay south, but its a nail biter, as it becomes an event that relies on heavy enough precip rates/dynamics to cool the column and support frozen. Again, N and NE look to be in best spot as per ICON (believe it if you dare )

for this to work for CTP we need to see something gettin ready to pops around VA. I dont see it.

#truth.