pasnownut

GFS is right where we want it. 1step closer. 49 more to go....

Seeing that the SE is potentially getting in the action is a great sign. edit. What blizzard just said 5 seconds before I did.

I expected some elevation and isolated “winners” with this one but late pop of secondary started to show up and I pulled chips off as soon as I saw that. Glad for those who are scoring.

Gotta love the internet.

and ground truth says its always a safer bet to say "it ain't happening" wrt snowstorms and be right 90% of the time.

No..... its not me.........I"m much cuter thank that.

I'd sh!t twinkies if that were to verify..... Naked snow angels in the drifts.....

I'm deserving for sure and to add to your point, it gives us wiggle room for the undeniable "north jog", but that said, at 210 it retrogrades right off SE NJ coast. Verbatim we'd likely be safe w/ it tucked in close as general rule of thumb w/ coastal like this is that once storm gets to your latitude, you are usually safe as column is as warm as its gonna get, and any marginal boundary layers would crash and we snow....like hopefully CCB snow.....like lotsa CCB snow. Stall that beeyatch. OK, way too much analyzing an op run at 8 days....sure is perty though.

can't wait sorry Happy Friday (for the next 6 hours anyway)

Stick around for a few more years/decades and you come to understand that while statistics have helped to make great strides in this sport, coming at it from an A +B=C mindset will drive you off the ledge. Look at the last 2 years for example. Stats can surely help, but a changing environ/base state are not able to be accurately factored in, and with so so many variables with any given event, IMO it is really a blended approach of statistics/physics/models/and a keen understanding of how it all comes together. While statistics are a big help, they also can lead to false hope/despair. Think about it.

they just call it sore ass for short.

Heeeyyyyyyyyy now your talkin

Uh....If that happens, I'm going down to the southeastern forum and virtually throat punchin someone.

Dude, that't the best phrase I've read on this board all year.

at least wear and tear/ maintenance on my sleds has been cheap this year. My grass is pretty F'd up tho.....

IF we cant laugh shit off....what else ya gonna do?

looking early on at 18z happy hour kickoff, one can see the effects of the HP up in Canada....it makes it to NE PA and its underwhelming for them. pun intended....that WILL cut it get it....cut it ya know cut to friggin SE WISCONSIN. UGGHHHHHHH

Can’t hit the like button but good post. No cold above us.....Miller Bs just suck more than normal.

get that column to collapse a bit and verbatim that's plenty close enough to overcome. the good new is that while not a flip to fantastic....a new look is looming in the LR and it should be better for our chances.

just thinking the same thing.

and with the frozen ground....YUK

Primary is killing this thing for many of us. that needs to die a quicker death, but why would it. Primarys die when the meet too much resistance (ie. cold). The less the resistance, the longer it lives. Nuff said....done....next

I"m old enough to remember many dud years, so while I'm down right now....I've/we've been down before. Big diff between now and then is that we didnt have easy access to computer models and "trusted" the radio weather forecasts. Now we can live and die 4 times a day and with more than a handful of useful models....thats alot of stressin. Maybe ignorance really is bliss....

little more ridging early on for Euro. Not getting a good feeling about the next panels....#stupidtrends