pasnownut

Been watching this one for a while and think the bolded part has a good shot at verifying. Gut says you can add Tioga to Bradford counties as they may be big winners in northwoods, as deform bands have best shot at cranking there. Also think this has heartbreak written on if for those just east of the r/s line. I'll let you know what we got when i get home (or will post pics if i can).

While the point is well taken, I look at it as a steady feed of clues in a guessing game, that based on the source, you know what you can trust....and what you can't. From 120 +, yes there is sometimes/often enough variability to make on rip out whatever hair remains in ones head.....but the main clues are often decent. Now beyond 240.....well that's just a crap shoot....

That was what i was referencing earlier. add onto that the AO wanting to stay + and lets just say......that's not a + whatsoever. If there's any silver lining...it will look different next week. What that look is like is anyone's guess, but at least we'll be entering our window of opportunity.

I only share because now guidance is getting a bit better look at players as they come onto the field, and we can hone in a bit more on Op's over Ens guidance. Just an observation.....

This has some good stuff on it. https://www.weather.gov/ctp/climateRecordsHarrisburg

I may be overreaching, but as it has just appeared on nooner guidance, IF it were to drop in a bit sooner, it COULD help to tug this thing a bit further west.

say what you will.......... NS diving in a bit?? Too late?? Go look at last couple runs and it wasn't there.

thats just ugly....no sugarcoating that one.

I know your not...you know better. If you look over some of yesterdays stuff...there are a few that are right on the ledge, or sound like they already jumped. I'd hope you don't sugarcoat....that's why your good at what you do and why its great having you in here. My frustration is wrt the negativity when a run or two that are 4 -5 days ahead of an event doesn't show something good or what we want. ANYONE that has been around long enough knows that its way too early to talk in definitive tones about this weekend....let alone beyond. While this weekends look has diminished over the last 36 hrs, this has happened many times (as Blizz and i alluded to). If one looks at last nights 0z GFS OP, you'd see the shift that I've been trying to hammer home. Yeah it wasn't much, but while there was no convo about it, it shows what a small shift 4 days out can still do for parts of our crew. I've never thought this one was for the entire forum, but SE 1/2 of Pa most definitely could be in play. I go to MA to do what I love....discuss weather patterns and sniff out opps. They have 10x the interest in doing that, but they also have 30x the whiners. For me, I cant stand the whining when someone doesnt at least offer up some reasoning. If that's my shortcoming, then fine....my bad. H2O/mappy/psu/chill/cape/frd are just a few that keep it interesting/real/fun. They too were frustrated yesterday and calling out the normal complainers and were asking for them to take it to banter....I'll just leave it at that. Its been tough and frustrating for everyone....me included. And if anyone thinks I'm nothing but rainbows n unicorns....I've looked at the tellies overnight and yeah...I'm nervous as they took are looking less favorable once again.

a raging + AO/NAO are like a vacuum and suck all the heat north....yes, lack of snow cover to the north surely adds into the mix, as does a constant wave train of cutters the scours out any cold we get. Look at the lack of frozen ground. We really need to be 41-42 and north to get that with any regularity, and throw in a bad base state....yeah were "cooked", and relying on climo and luck to get the goods. Weve been backloaded for the last couple of years, so in my mind, Feb/March are way too early to write off. NAO leads are +/- 10 days and IF we can get any better flow up top....we could roll into better times rather swiftly.

Great points. As you well know, a few good periods of winter have a way of spoiling and giving false sense of reality. With all of the data available 4x daily, as soon as 1 run shows something good, by and large, we latch on and try to see how it can happen, while knowing odds are typically stacked against a couple good looking model runs in less than stellar patterns. That said, we also know that we can luck our way into storms, as there are always unforseen variables that can offer pleasant surprises. For me...thats why I'm here....the thrill of the chase. I just dont understand all of the whining when the reality is this is closer to normal, and not every year has to look like winter....no matter what the date on the calendar says. it happens. Get over it.

That is what is killing this thing and what I was referencing above wrt ridging. Looking over AM runs, some have a little better ridging out ahead which give this thing a chance to climb a bit more. Again, that's not a wish...its what I'm looking for based on what we are discussing about storms and their ability to climb north even as we get into the near term. Like Blizz said, its happened countless times over the last few years. That's my rub w/ those that have already called this DOA. Just based on our ability to fail, they are probably "correct" in their assessment, but IMO its really 36hrs away from calling the coroner. edit - and for those in the NW....fine....call the coroner, but anyone here in the LSV that is calling this, is just hoping to get "lucky".

I've been watching the flow and looking for signs of better looks. Oz GFS had more dig and better ridging out ahead as did the 6z but its a little late to do us enough good. I hate wish casting, but IF we can get that to occur just a bit earlier, it might yank this thing north a bit more. I mention it because it still has a chance of happening as the NS energy still off the map.

I agree with you and in reality this is the case w/ most events. 0z NAM looks like it too is close enough (extrapolated)

Like I posted a bit ago. Look at this am 6z and you are flush.

if they only realized how it drives decent posters away...... ..........so in other weather news, GFS came towards the Euro, and the Euro came towards the GFS (ish). I still think this is in play for many, as we've seen too many jogs north in the last few years to ignore. does anyone know if they worked out the north trend in the new and improved FV3

and only 6 short hours earlier.... this

I'm glad some level heads still prevail on these boards....My forum is about to go full tilt meltdown. I'm glad some realize we are here to discuss the good bad and meh...regardless of how much of the bad we've already had to discuss. Keep it up.

Good grief.....shall I take my toys elsewhere.....?

Dont hold back.....K?

it makes fantastic propellent for potato guns as well..... A friend told me......

Dr. No already said no so all the debbies can just jump to #7, cause 90% of the time they are right....no reasoning needed. FWIW..Im just happy to be tracking something other than warmth. Personally i dont get wound up on run to run shifts....even when they look good for me. I've run out of deaths to die over this sport decades ago. I'm numb to it but love the chase.

hence the "lose it" phase I referenced. If history serves any purpose in model watching....this should come north.

speakin of....whered he go?

and we are entering the lose it phase on the models. We've seen that before. Not sure if new goofus has that fixed or not.