pasnownut

another positive takeaway is that we are seeing subtle shifts in a favorable direction for next week. Thats something we'll all agree on.....cept Tamaqua boy :).

you missed this one. Yes its only 1 frame that we lose thermals, as 850s crash in the next, but SE crew would turn/taint for sure. Regardless, we are parsing over an Op run in wayoutthereland, so not really worried, as we'll have 20 more looks to pick from in the next 10 days, but like i said, its close enough for me to push SOME house money in.

Not a cutter but looks like a killer B to me... Closed countours of the SE coast show Coastal transfer complete in following 2 frames and verbatim, saves the 80 north crew, but yeah, i'd take that early on and be happy for the northern crew. Sign here ___________Nut______________________

12z ops continue to show enough subtle changes that I was seeing yesterday wrt mid term to inspire some confidence in a legit window being opened mid/late next week. Thats as far as I'm looking for now (wrt Op/ens guidance). I dare say i'm liking what i see (keeping all disclaimers of climo/base state etc in mind.) Looks normalish and in this bass ackwards year of 2020, I'm all about normal.

or pot callin kettle.....

I know, but the look beyond is starting to look a little better, and I like many, don't pay too much attention beyond 10 days for lr maps. Tellies suggest a window and to me the maps are coming around to that idea. SER still there, but less ominous, and more zonal/nw flow which is far better to work with. Thats my takeaway right now....

I can roll w/ this....would be nice to see some clippers. Snowbelts likely approve as well.

Antecedent is cool but not cold. 850's not for SE 1/3 where most precip falls. That's why the frozen will be a thin stripe on NW periphery of qpf field until it gets further north through NNJ and into NE where it can get into colder airmass. If this storm happened in January, seeing the panels as they are on 12z's home team models, I'd be moderately giddy down here. Its early in the season and we're still cooling off in the N Hemisphere. That's my take anyway. Like I stated yesterday, elevation will likely have a few surprises on that NW side. Allentown to Poconos still look like best spots in our region to me.

lol. I had a confused icon on your post....only to take it off as I totally forgot about todays game. Dont blame me.....blame 2020....

Yeah thats what I meant by closer but not there yet. Thermals I 80 N were marginally better but verbatim it'd be a rather thin stripe of snow on NW precip shield and elevation driven at that. Its only a couple moves away from eastern half of state seeing a decent event.....wet or white. on the other hand, its also only a couple moves away from smokin cirrus if cold press shunts it OTS, or, we get a jump NW w/ SLP and were all soakin wet w/ MAYBE slush bombs if dynamics get there. ULL did seem a little better wrt phase, so who knows....maybe momma N gonna show us some love from above in the craptastic 2020.

Good to see you again bud. Cant wait to turn the calendar eh??

and furthermore, 12/11-12 shows my point from yesterday about the see saw look. Cutting to Illinois doesn't inspire a ton of hope about pattern locking in in the long range, but maybe that's just setting the table for beyond (just remember the good looks that we've struggled to see materialize - so proceed w/ much caution). Plenty of time for corrections (if the pattern that the ens guidance seems to be trending towards as we approach mid December.

12z GFS says Saturday looks better w mslp and thermals, but verbatim, still a closer miss...:). GFS suite 12z new vs 0z para starting to have more similarities in progression anyway. If I lived in NEPA, I'd be moderately intrigued. That's just a 10 second glance, so troll me if needed.

car and mulch topper in Lititz/Elm area on way to work.

oh....and congrats to all that got to dust off the snow board today. I had snow showers and graupel south of wspt at noon. Lifted my spirits as i hate leaving cabin/friends/family for our annual trip to buck camp.

really havent looked since before thanksgiving. Just getting back into the swing of things. When I left things looked to be lining up, and just parsing over ens runs seems to say window is open for early/mid dec. Will dive in in the coming days, but yeah i was happy to see blue blobs in the east, but after that quick view, only concern is that while tellies support the window being open, it didnt look like a sustained cold period, just seasonal to back n forth, with said chances. Like you said, better than warm and boring. We surely are due.

you forgot Northern. Left cabin and it was snowing nicely. up top of mtn near Coudersport has 5" as of an hour ago.

12z runs seem to be one step closer to trackin something here in the state. Not sure I'm ready to put any chips on the retrograde/pinwheel options that the GFS and Canook models are spitting out..... but it IS 2020. That said, I'm out. Happy Turk Day. Put a bag over your heads and hug your parents. They need it (and so do you). Or just send more virtual hugs....however ya'll roll, just make the best of it. Nut

words well stated

Fortunately its the GFS and if one loops back through the last few runs, loopy is a fitting descriptor. At the minimum, we may be close to something for late weekend and could have a period to play in first couple weeks of Dec. I sure hope so, as I'll be at the cabin in search of a nice 10pt that is hanging around my place. Just gotta find him after the bear hunters scoured the woods and pushed em all around. Wont be on much after today, so in advance I wish you all a happy Turkey day. Make the best of it in these F'd up times, as we still have many things to be thankful for... Nut

cant agree more. Will be nice to have some holiday weather around the holidays, as we need whatever we can get to boost ones spirits right now. What a truely F'd up year in so so sooooo many ways.......

thx Mag. Great stuff as always. Yeah, as we dont seemingly have an abundance of cold anymore, lets not "waste" it when its just an anomaly. Step down starting next week is fine /w me/us.

shut it......

good luck w/ the project.

thx pal. Yes, there will be bevvies upon conclusion of the days hunting. Sounds like camo pants may get the knife and turned into shorts by weeks end....yuk. Just want fall weather, not 70's.