pasnownut

If the R/S line were about 25 miles SE of 0z Euro, i'd agree. You and I both know how we do w/ big storms in the LSV. Fortunately, CMC and GFS being on the southern side gives a little wiggle room for further corrections as goalposts start to narrow.

I'd take a blended look of 0z EPS and 6z GFS and call it a great day. That would get ALL of the subforum in play. If LSV can eek out an appetizer and sloppy whatevs for part 2, I'd be down w/ that to see you guys in true CTP (and even our KPIT lurker brethren) in the game. I'm not greedy.

gets coin jar to head to turn into chips.

Your starting to sound like us "mortals"...sorry we did that to you

Not sure, but as we've all played down in the MA forum (some more than others), and one can see how taxing it can be to enjoy this sport...especially down there. I'd guess its burnout and lack of ROI (at least thats what I've struggled w/ in the past). Of course we all know to temper expectations, but we've had more than a few rugs pulled (wrt NAO, MJO and other things) not materializing as modeled. Couple that w/ a ratter pattern like last year, and for a true snow lover, its tough. Tombo, mitch, heavy and a few other great contributors have moved on (tombo pops in when not on his forum once in a while).

Seeing the big guns all pointed in a similar direction is a welcome sight for sore eyes. Lets hope goalposts dont jump too much. As the cold air is finally being seen/realized, lets hope that helps w/ coming model runs. We shouldnt see this one or the next one headed back to the lakes in coming days. Pattern supports what we are seeing.

yep. I also corrected my post as i stated near term, but were really headed twds mid term. Still close enough to count right??

Not sure what to think of DT anymore. Seeing how smitten he is w/ the EPS over the last few years, he's gone down w/ a lot of ships ya know. Best lunch takeaway to me is that it seems like we are another day closer to some appreciable tracking ops. as we approach the mid term and things start to look more legit. Really glad to see the models adjusting to the tellies. Have a good rest of your day all.

heres that panel shat shows what I'm talking about. You can see the closed contours over southern Ill. next frame, its of NC coast and right where we want it. again its just a run, but its a nice run.

verbatim, its an early early transfer (which is what we'd want) as antecedent cold isnt too strong. As depicted, its a best case scenario, as it wouldnt warm the thermal fields too much, so we' basically have a cleaner look to the storm.

That's the underlying point i was driving at. At LEAST there's stuff to look at, and not just massive red blobs parked east of the Miss. for weeks on end. I'll enjoy the ride cause at least were on the ride, and not standing in a long ass line waiting to get on.

whtening of the ground for a little here in Etown. I'm gonna get the first weenie tag of the year. Really dont give a sh!t right now. GO LOOK AT THE CMC for late next week....hint......double barrel LP both stay under us and just shellack the beegeezus out of us. Verbatim, it's likely the SNOWstorm of the season if it were to happen as depicted (0-.5% likelyhood IMO). It really is just a beaut...even if only digital snow, yes, there is a CHANCE!. Enjoy.

snowing nicely in Etown

thats the $10mm question that spurs much debate. I see the same (not at wallys world, just at my local places of business that i patronize). I have opinions and my own answers to things, but wont get into that. Just sucks in many different ways for so many. All the best to my weather weenie crew in the next bump in the road.

In weather related news, the para holds out hope for next weeks chance for the I80 north crew. Ens guidance still shows broad trough in conus kinda look and no WAR. Not a stellar look, but not a toaster bath kinda deal either.

Yes. Increasing restrictions once again. Go buy wood now, because much will be used to board up businesses that are hanging on by a thread. Hell, California is now starting to wake up and see how bad restrictions are affecting their own economy. We can do this w/o draconian measures. I now own 5 masks....and hate every one of em but by and large were all good soldiers and doing our part.

Just parsed of home team ens runs and was not bothered (comparing to last year). I'd lock them in as currently depicted and see what shakes out. MUCH better curvy line orientations and colored blob placements. I'll throw some house money in.

its 2020. You really needed to ask.....

last snippet for the day (until things look legit, i'm not "wasting" time like i used to sniffin out snow). Too much grief and agony. Getting too old for that. On that note, home team ensemble runs today are not hard on the eyes, and much more workable than we've seen for some time. PNA is ok, broad trough central and east. Not saying we score, but we may be close enough to put something on the board(s). Have a good one gang.

another positive takeaway is that we are seeing subtle shifts in a favorable direction for next week. Thats something we'll all agree on.....cept Tamaqua boy :).

you missed this one. Yes its only 1 frame that we lose thermals, as 850s crash in the next, but SE crew would turn/taint for sure. Regardless, we are parsing over an Op run in wayoutthereland, so not really worried, as we'll have 20 more looks to pick from in the next 10 days, but like i said, its close enough for me to push SOME house money in.

Not a cutter but looks like a killer B to me... Closed countours of the SE coast show Coastal transfer complete in following 2 frames and verbatim, saves the 80 north crew, but yeah, i'd take that early on and be happy for the northern crew. Sign here ___________Nut______________________

12z ops continue to show enough subtle changes that I was seeing yesterday wrt mid term to inspire some confidence in a legit window being opened mid/late next week. Thats as far as I'm looking for now (wrt Op/ens guidance). I dare say i'm liking what i see (keeping all disclaimers of climo/base state etc in mind.) Looks normalish and in this bass ackwards year of 2020, I'm all about normal.

or pot callin kettle.....

I know, but the look beyond is starting to look a little better, and I like many, don't pay too much attention beyond 10 days for lr maps. Tellies suggest a window and to me the maps are coming around to that idea. SER still there, but less ominous, and more zonal/nw flow which is far better to work with. Thats my takeaway right now....