pasnownut

In truth, I DIDNT want it.....but I'm glad you and some others can understand why it can get frustrating. To the other side of the discussion, yeah, in a dud winter like this, the "main" thread wouldn't be the long range talk of snow, so I agree that all in 1 makes some sense. Just need some to self moderate a bit. Man i wish we had some snow to talk about.... Tellies look like? MJO low amplitude/COD w/ reemergence into 6 after a brief window of opp in 8/cod late month AO looks less + but still + NAO looks to head to neutral That said, while things look to be trending better, the base state still is not great, and we are now headed beyond peak climo....so now i cant wait to see the sun angle/cant stick and all the backside of winter poo pooing that often shows up.

I think most post for fun and know the caveats that apply when looking at a 10+ day snowfall map, as many of us know how useseful they are(nt) . I usually put a snide disclaimer up when i post one, cause sometimes digital snow is all we got. Its the carrot that dangles in front of the hamster wheels in our heads.

Zak Brisko me thinks....

Yeah I know hes a grandpa and know he's "quite capable"of good stuff, but I didn't know seniority gives hall passes to muddin things up....to which many have sounded off on him for doing so....many of which I also "grandfathered" in for their contributions over the years. I know I'm not alone in my thinking. Whatevs, and I like i said some time back, I prefer it here when we are clippin along, cause we have fun along the way.

weve had Jamie, heavy, allweather, and a few others that have left, and while I dont want to get into the weeds here, thats why I proposed a banter forum, as I didnt want "us" to scare them away. The real knowledgeable ones dont want to parse through the "it aint happenin - I hate snow" parts of the threads. They too may be snow hounds that want to come and share why things may or may not happen...and man i miss them. When allweather was in here the other year giving kudos to us weenies for what we were sharing, as well as our knowledge for rookies, it was really an inspiration for me to keep at my learing/love of this sport. Mag....cant imagine it hear without his level headed analysis, and I appreciate how he shares/discusses w/ us weenies that sorta know stuff. That's my personal love of this board.

You mean MA or in here? I'd agree wrt the MA, as I know Bob/PSU Mitch and a few others have taken "mental" breaks but as much as i hate the debbyin which gets a little much at times, I dont see many that have fogged snow goggles in here.

If he could temper is doom n gloom that we all know and see, I'd be fine w/ him, but he gets away with a lot of junk that isnt typically tollerated down there. He must have donated body parts worth of $$ to the board or somethin.

I havent given up, I'm just accepting reality that this is a skunker, dud, winter. I see the signs of better wrt the indicies, but we've also seen them before. I've said it (and to the argument of PSU) that the AO is and has been the best way to win in the last few years, and I stick to it until somthing tells me otherwise. It has been our best way to play. While I'm no stats guy, and dont claim to be, our best opps have come when it is -. We know the pac drives the bus, but the ao can overcome/mute a bad regime and keep the boundary south enough for us to play. NAO...is becoming a unicorn. PNA is a rainbow. For some reason(s) we cant get them to trend in our favor. MJO is getting longer stints in warmer regions (ala Don S.) and warmer sst's may be the cause. Heres my thought to chew on before i head out. The size of the cold pool is smaller, and takes longer to mature due to warming state, so there is less of it to "share", and less of it to dislodge, so it stays where it belongs and is "safe"....towards the poles. This is why I suggested the other week/year that the trend to backload winters is happening for those of us in the mid latitudes without elevation, as we now live on the fringes, and that line is creeping north. Just my thoughts/reasoning, but its where my head is at right now. And if it looks good, I hope any snow hounds come in and play. Over the years, you, i, as well as a few others have kept this board alive and I hope we/others can get a fun year soon. It would be nice to see the board alive and well in winter. I miss it........but for now, I am getting ready for my nap. Just is what it is bud. I enjoy all seasons (except spring), but the reality is it is much easier to discuss warmth than it is snow n cold, and thats why I'm here (but i will agree w/ WSPT that cold enough is good enough for my older bones :)).

FWIW, the 384 panels look great................................ Well it feels like winter so I'm happy about that. I saw the snow talk and started to get excited, so here i am. Bubbles statement regarding the amount of data available and can't agree more. I posted the very same thing in the MA thread about a month back. Too much info available and 1 good run shows up and BOOM...we track for the next 37-59 model runs waiting for it to happen and well you know how that goes. The biggest rub now, is that while advances have been made in models/algorithms/frequency/resolution.....etc....in hopes that we can just match a data set and whalla...A+B=C, we now are seeing that that's not the case, as warming has seemingly not been factored in which throws a rather large wrench into all of the advances. Why by default, do we usually see a nice looking 384 panel on guidance?? Because the models are factored to know general climo at a given time and are defaulted as such. In February, it should look like X, so....and at 384 hours, when the range is far beyond accurate, we get the LR tease that "it's coming".....while sitting in our undershorts with no heat on trying to make it feel like winter while we waste 1/2 of our lives searching for snow (well some of us do anyway). In the last 2 weeks I've come to this realization, and mentally have started to move on. I'm in sales...I'm a hunter...I love the thrill of the chase....the acquisition.....but the truth is the ROI for storm trackin for me in the last couple years has been less then stellar. For some of you new guys, if you'd go back in time you'd know there are a few of us that have been in here doing this for a long long time. While I'm trying to figure out what the hell went wrong, I also know that answer is literally and figuratively way above my head, and I'm not going to act like i have it figured out....until then, I'm going to follow the indices and tellies, and stop chasing unicorns. I'm getting a little too old for that. I'm just going to just enjoy the sunrise, sunset and smile in between, in hopes of a better next year....because there's always next year. Until then, I'll casually look for a window, and if and when I see it open....I'll sneak in to see if I can steal away some snow. Happy weekend all.

Great read Mag. Thx as always for the insight.

You missed the word "equivalent"..... hehe

In my mind its the "transitional" areas that I'd agree may struggle on TT, but in defense of my point, the Pivotal map you posted was underdone in the northern tier as well. That's not an argument, that's just something to point out regarding the usefulness/accuracy of the NAM suite. As we rode all over western tioga, southern/mid potter, i can tell you 4" was rather common, with some areas in excess.

Good points. I would add that due to the changing envirnment, analogs and LR indicators have seemed to be of less use in the last 2 years. I'm hoping its just a couple of anomalous years, and not a trend, but something that raises an eyebrow. To your point though, they all can change rather abruptly, and in my mind, Feb/Mar is the new prime time for snow as winter has matured, and what cold we have is typically at a maximum. Unfortunately we dont get to "push" winter further into March, but it does seem to be the time when its "easiest". Hope that makes sense.

I know the TT algorythm is whacked, and typically divide by 2. It didn't do poorly in the northwoods last week. It was rather close north of 80-6 corridor. The 7 is basically over my cabin. We got 7" on the button on top and 5-6 in the valleys. Eyeballing on the way up. Elysburg 1", Danville about the same, Wspt 2", and from Tioga border (liberty exit and further up, 4". Not a bust in my book.

Just for fun....

Have any of you even looked at the short range models lately? Im confused, as they did pretty well last week and now advertise a CTP event tomorrow (mind you not a big one, but its something)...and if correct, someone in the LSV gets your 5" tomorrow. While I realize the doom and gloom...and no endless weeks of winter (like I want). Snow is still snow. I'll also add that someones gonna bust bad, as my CTP forecast for Akron is rain and 53, and 12z come in looking like below??

No problem. I’d add Montague (for love of snow) Brantingham (picturesque) Old Forge (lots to do) Lake Placid (former Olympic venues and great winter town. (we are going to soon after doing research).

I thought the same. It was misleading (although ugly for sure)

seems rather fitting.

an example of the hype train that I'm talking about. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html Yes....I HATE hyperbole... Signed, Realist and btw, this realist knows that with the lack of the "normal" (chat about winter), I cant argue for a second that this winter sucks.....so far, and may straight into spring. 6 legit weeks left and if we found a way to backload the hell outta what's left, I'm betting there would be little chat about it...other then the "i hate it crowd". Hope my point is understood.

But it doesnt.... While its factual to date....its just jumping on the hype/click train. To have a balanced approach it should also state that of late most of our "winter" (term used loosely) have been backloaded...but that detracts from the hype.

18zs seemed to have followed seasonal progression and came NW w/ LP. Thought 500's didnt have a big cutter feel to them as the progressive flow as has been the norm ... but same old wash rinse repeat. Ughh

Yeah this is the next one to watch and verbatim, it dissects the state from SW to NE. I little wiggle the wrong way and were in trouble, but a little wiggle the other way and you may have your VDay plans changed to snowchasin w/ your sweetie.

I dont think you'll need a plane. Tug Hill has 2' on the ground, and looking at recent runs, says Northeast is in the game for a couple opps at nice snow. Maybe just s nice road trip instead. Hope you get to enjoy it as well. Nut

Nut had a fantastic weekend in Tioga/Potter. Lots of snow (10" at cabin 3" from prior and 7" from Thursday night/Friday), and 5-7" in valley around Gaines/Galeton/Germania. We did 181 miles and saw a decent amount of sled traffic. Snow line was basically IPT and north on way up Friday. We got 1 to 1.5" additional through Saturday evening till it tapered off. Hearing reports of 1-2" additonal last evening before transition to rain. If anyone wants to see pics and is on Fbook, check out Pa Grand Canyon Snowmobile club. I am webmaster and do the updates on FBook w/ another guy. You'll see some info I posted for trail conditions. You can also check out our web page for cameras of various locations, as I'm sure some may be scratching heads as to there being any snow in this horrid winter....but there is a little bit in norther tier.