pasnownut

looking at longer leads...GEPS is the one to root on as it holds the basic trough E ridge W look thru its entirety. GEFS only out to 300 has it, but looks like ridging trying to pop back in east. For how long, only time will tell.

Unfortunately we dont see the trough axis heading west. Were that to happin words like WOOF and BIG DOG (Henry Margusutyism) would come to mind, but the current long term look is for "clippers on roids or clipperfest". I've got no problem w/ a parade of clippers.

240 storm extrapolated on CMC has "best of show" prize for nooners. Get that look to hold and that would likely deliver.

Trough axis too far E so very NS dominant verbatim, so clippers is the path to victory for us. at times of relaxation is when bigger threats might show.... Like 12/13. GFS once again showing the incoming bombogenesis maximux but verbatim is likely to cut like a knife as troughing is gone. Plenty of time for changes better....or worse.

Well stated friend. My brother, my son and several of his pals that call me POPS as they are all "my kids" will join us. Blessed and thankful is an understatement. My son just informed my wife and I that we are going to be grandparents for the first time. Last night my aged father called to tell me his time afield and at the cabin is done, and wants me to take his rifle... talk about resonate and life going full circle. I cant bring mysef to do it cause its the end of an era, and so many owe him their love of the mountains and being together. He was the glue that held it together for oh so long....now i carry the torch. Life's full of balance and oh so bittersweet. Be thankful all. I sure am.

that lighthouse is the one we were at this summer. I may even have a pic of our crew standing there (not sure if my camera was used, or another guys.

Was in Eerie on motorcycle trip w/ my son and many father son combos this summer. Presquile Isle is a beaut. I'd rent the cabin in Mercer county once again if I was in the chase. Bout 30 miles off the lake. I'll be at the my cabin and if service allows, will share what we get, as you know where i am, I'm in a favored spot for the NC snowbelt region. We NEVER get anything close those closer to the lakes, but I'm happy to see flakes flyin, and after looking at early nooners....we should have a few inches OTG by Friday AM arrival. Will have beer in hand while plowing w/ UTV. It's the little things in life that make me thankful. This is one of them for me. Love plowing snow. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

This is why I was poo poohin Mitchy poos post yesterday about not much to see. In the end he may well be spot on....but its not gonna be because the pattern sucks.... just our luck does.

you forgot to add moister. the GFS. It got moister too....check qpf panels for the doubters among us. Am I sayin its happenin....no, but I'm not seeing a shutout at all. Small ball can win games too.

aleet aleet.... 13th.... 13 will be the forums new lucky number and will dismantle 12/5 and associated stigmas of the past.

384 hr gfs rolled forward is an out and out blizzard on the 13th.

Well I'm in the all guidance camp as one has not been proven to be empirical in verification vs others, and IF one looks at ALL model guidance (OP/ENS) and couples that with tellies, once again the word workable comes to mind. Based on current Enso and influence of MJO possibly being a bit muted, I'll take a - AO/ + PNA and roll w/ it as long as we can. Deep winter it may not be, but workable IMO.

I'm not sure what you are looking for, but most guidance (both Op and ENS), have predominant troughing here in the east w/ cold close enough to get it done with the right timing (as always). Personally i dont need northern FL under freeze warnings. Just need it cold enough to snow....and I see heights largely supportive of a workable regime. Of course there can be a relaxation here and there, and the only one that I saw was followed by deep blues returning or rather constant at 850mb and this oozes something we havent had for a while....clippers as its largely norther stream driven.

I'm not at all bothered by nooner trends. GFS/CMC/ICON/GEM not too far off, and ticked in the right direction. Wouldnt be too surprised if we back into a little sumthin for turk day for true CTP'rs. Regardless I'm headed to cabin Friday morning and looks like it'll be just in time for first notable LES event of the season. Happy short week to all, and to those already on PTO....enjoy.

Tis the season..... Getting closer though.

Plenty enough of a signal to keep our interest. 6z GFS again shows the dual wave solution so those who want turk day snow get it, and those who want to wait till black friday....get their chance too . Overnights def show the event, but diverge which one and when as icon is thurs and CMC is Friday. To me its them trying to figure out which wave to focus on, as you can see 2 areas of energy on maps. plenty of time to sort out, but fun to watch.

As Mitch pointed out earlier, early looks are already being revisited due to ENSO (or lack thereof), so yeah, like you, I'ma gonna take it as it comes and hope for surprises, or futher tweaking of long lead forecasts (Weather World was quite the Debbie....)

511 cam east of mansfield due east is lookin rather snowy. Steady light snow continues and sets my mood just right. Thanks Mo Nature.

I like how you think. You should be a lawyer in your next life. Yeah, as there seems to be some correcting going on wrt ENSO, slight nina can be workable. Just need AO to frequently peturb polar regions and keep that cold conveyor belt working. BTW win down here. frosted roofs noted on way into office. Perty. Happy Friday all

Yep. Where the boundary sets up follow Tuesday event will be what to watch. Historically we seem to underperform in that regard, so that's the first fly in the ointment that we'll need to work through. Fortunately some runs have it notably south, so nothing set in stone by any means. edit, looks like this was just stated by Bub

Hi res NAM, still has 2 qpf max's first one is poconos w/ SLP placement just puking snow on them, but as SLP goes retro on us, wraparound surely favors somerset/laurels. My pal just bought a place in Terra Alta WV, and they think 12+ as he sits right up top. He's not going to be down for this one, but i told him that i'd be inviting myself sometime when a good ol upslope event looms. getting snowed in is fun stuff, and sorely missed.

Nope. Never did it. yep, cabin in for a good shellacking as we sit at 2275'. I go up next Friday. Didnt put the plow on the UTV, and wondering if I may regret that.

yeah poconos have been where i've always thought the best accums may come from. Of course somerset (seven springs) will try to 1 up em. Will be fun to see how it evolves, but base on LP sitting over eastern pa, chips pushed to NE for me. Awesome to see other opps lining up for next week n beyond. Cant ask for more as we are just getting started. Happy pre friday all.

at this range, plenty of waffling expected. As suggested by a few, Op/Ens are seeing the storm, and the pattern is close enough to get it done, so that's good enough for now. Lets just enjoy the chase, and hope for the best (well that's what I'm doin anyway).

No matter how it plays out down here, I'm with ya, to be considering the prospects of snow....is a big win. Good luck to all and if this one isnt yours, maybe the next one will be as a couple shots of fun may be looming in next 2 weeks. Good enough for me.