pasnownut

Up 5 deg in SE Pa from 6z. more in line to our earlier convo. Looks a bit soggy tho. Precip looks like it hits where we need it to. Lets lock this in.

plus if one looks at the overall size of that anomalously "cool" blob as depicted, check surrounding temps and show me what/where it is tapping into in order to create said anomaly. only thing going for it is 700's outta da NW, but 850's and below are SE. Close but not close enough. Ok, Im done dissecting the 6z cause the 12z may be notably different....but it was fun anyways.

oh i think Bubbles guess at high 60's is definitely in play, but not 50's. thats all i was getting at.

thermal profiles and wind just dont match up at 18z timestamp. SE low level winds just won do it in august...or any month as we all know.

NWS goin w/ 79. IMO that is much more logical based on thermal profiles as there just isnt anything close by to tap into, nor a big stemwinder to create GFS advertised temps. Diurnal cooling in 2nd week of August in E Pa, just aint happening.

sorta chuckled when i saw it, but yes, Bubbles is not day drinkin....yet wouldnt that be nuts if it verified. Peeps would be moanin n groanin for sure.

if you dont have much to start with.....

Yeah, I want my windows open and feeling a nice breeze flowing through them.

dude, you cant be serious?? Popcorn WITHOUT butter.....?? I know there are other additives...but that only complements the BUTTER

oh and to see what "consensus" is out there. Here is NAM sayin popcorn farts for most everyone. But it is the NAM well beyond its sweet spot - whatever that is :).

Parsing over trends for late week, GFS has turned back to a wetter look. 12z yesterday 6z today. I didnt throw in the super soaker 18z from last night, cause thered be a run on TP and boats once again. Takeaway, showery times ahead, and even throught mid week, temp busts are likely to be had where the low level clouds insulate us from the bright ball in the sky.

yes, it did, but the general theme of showery weather seems to still be in the offing during that period, and that's all I'm looking at. I dont need to see purples IMBY to see raindrops. That's all I'm saying, and if that holds true, it is a way to beat back some heat. Like with others, that is a win for me.

just another 2020 thing is right. Its a shame when every friggin news outlet is in a fight for most clicks....at the expense of sanity as we knew it...

GFS mid term looks to be showing a wetter look from Thursday and beyond. Showers hopefully give respite from the oppressive heat and could help to "cool" us off a bit as we approach the weekend. If one takes GFS verbatim, it looks downright wet and showery Thurs/Fri.

nah....mine is 6/2....but i'll consider that happy belated ohh...and happy bday canderson.

all ens guidance shows rather good concensus out thru 240. 2m temps dont look ominous, but ridge axis centered in central basin suggests that it will likely be easier to overachieve in the temp dept (as it seems to do lately). I think your right that its not days and days of pressure cooker stuff, but 90's likely sprinkled in extended. Parsing over precip panels suggest a couple of wet periods that likely aid in keeping temps in check.

all good . No worries. I like to send long lead hints....he is the day to day guy. We make a good team IMO.

I've said it before, I stray to discuss patterns and snow opps. Like Blizz....its what I love....the hunt. Sometimes it gets a little quiet and or gloomy here, so I go in search of convo. Not bashing, just callin it as it is sometimes. We all know what I'm talking about. I'm trying to to my part in being a good sport this year (during warm months), and hope we have lots to chat about in CTP this year. Weak Nina is early look, and I will take that for now. As I alluded to last year, I feel analogs/indices are not quiet as useful as they used to be as it feels like the base state (GW or ???) may be warming enough that it's literally "up in the air". I worry that the MA which is historically the battleground for snow, may be eeking north as we lose the cold in the arctic. JMO's but we'll know soon enough...and as i get older, I enjoy the 4 seasons more than i used to.....but NOTHING will ever beat those first fresh air masses of fall, the leaves, and the excitement for winters arrival....even when its a ratter like last year (for LSV it was anyways).

and I'll rise like an old pack mule ready to climb the mountain in search of snow.

after looking at the radar and seeing the heavier returns so far west, that you guys were in for some appreciable totals for next few hours.

need to stop drinkin that Guers Iced tea

Hope you piss that rock out soon. You’ll know when.... kidding aside good luck with it

verbatim, first week of august looks like airflow from SW, but before and after looks like warm and more arid conditions w/ flow from WNW.

looking at GFS ens guidance suggests normalish weather with a couple warm days sprinkled in. Precip chances also seem to pop every few days. Sure hope its correct. Big takeaway....heat pump is temporarily broke. Need to watch the ridging out west as it is close to rolling over into the central basin, which would fire the furnace back up.

Makes sense. it is a rather large valley and a big enough basin to capture the heat.. edit - saw trainers comments about downsloping and that likely factors in as well. I remember my college days staring at the mountain waiting for snow and how it held at elevation while the valley was slushbombs or white rain.