pasnownut

Antecedent is cool but not cold. 850's not for SE 1/3 where most precip falls. That's why the frozen will be a thin stripe on NW periphery of qpf field until it gets further north through NNJ and into NE where it can get into colder airmass. If this storm happened in January, seeing the panels as they are on 12z's home team models, I'd be moderately giddy down here. Its early in the season and we're still cooling off in the N Hemisphere. That's my take anyway. Like I stated yesterday, elevation will likely have a few surprises on that NW side. Allentown to Poconos still look like best spots in our region to me.

lol. I had a confused icon on your post....only to take it off as I totally forgot about todays game. Dont blame me.....blame 2020....

Yeah thats what I meant by closer but not there yet. Thermals I 80 N were marginally better but verbatim it'd be a rather thin stripe of snow on NW precip shield and elevation driven at that. Its only a couple moves away from eastern half of state seeing a decent event.....wet or white. on the other hand, its also only a couple moves away from smokin cirrus if cold press shunts it OTS, or, we get a jump NW w/ SLP and were all soakin wet w/ MAYBE slush bombs if dynamics get there. ULL did seem a little better wrt phase, so who knows....maybe momma N gonna show us some love from above in the craptastic 2020.

Good to see you again bud. Cant wait to turn the calendar eh??

and furthermore, 12/11-12 shows my point from yesterday about the see saw look. Cutting to Illinois doesn't inspire a ton of hope about pattern locking in in the long range, but maybe that's just setting the table for beyond (just remember the good looks that we've struggled to see materialize - so proceed w/ much caution). Plenty of time for corrections (if the pattern that the ens guidance seems to be trending towards as we approach mid December.

12z GFS says Saturday looks better w mslp and thermals, but verbatim, still a closer miss...:). GFS suite 12z new vs 0z para starting to have more similarities in progression anyway. If I lived in NEPA, I'd be moderately intrigued. That's just a 10 second glance, so troll me if needed.

car and mulch topper in Lititz/Elm area on way to work.

oh....and congrats to all that got to dust off the snow board today. I had snow showers and graupel south of wspt at noon. Lifted my spirits as i hate leaving cabin/friends/family for our annual trip to buck camp.

really havent looked since before thanksgiving. Just getting back into the swing of things. When I left things looked to be lining up, and just parsing over ens runs seems to say window is open for early/mid dec. Will dive in in the coming days, but yeah i was happy to see blue blobs in the east, but after that quick view, only concern is that while tellies support the window being open, it didnt look like a sustained cold period, just seasonal to back n forth, with said chances. Like you said, better than warm and boring. We surely are due.

you forgot Northern. Left cabin and it was snowing nicely. up top of mtn near Coudersport has 5" as of an hour ago.

12z runs seem to be one step closer to trackin something here in the state. Not sure I'm ready to put any chips on the retrograde/pinwheel options that the GFS and Canook models are spitting out..... but it IS 2020. That said, I'm out. Happy Turk Day. Put a bag over your heads and hug your parents. They need it (and so do you). Or just send more virtual hugs....however ya'll roll, just make the best of it. Nut

words well stated

Fortunately its the GFS and if one loops back through the last few runs, loopy is a fitting descriptor. At the minimum, we may be close to something for late weekend and could have a period to play in first couple weeks of Dec. I sure hope so, as I'll be at the cabin in search of a nice 10pt that is hanging around my place. Just gotta find him after the bear hunters scoured the woods and pushed em all around. Wont be on much after today, so in advance I wish you all a happy Turkey day. Make the best of it in these F'd up times, as we still have many things to be thankful for... Nut

cant agree more. Will be nice to have some holiday weather around the holidays, as we need whatever we can get to boost ones spirits right now. What a truely F'd up year in so so sooooo many ways.......

thx Mag. Great stuff as always. Yeah, as we dont seemingly have an abundance of cold anymore, lets not "waste" it when its just an anomaly. Step down starting next week is fine /w me/us.

shut it......

good luck w/ the project.

thx pal. Yes, there will be bevvies upon conclusion of the days hunting. Sounds like camo pants may get the knife and turned into shorts by weeks end....yuk. Just want fall weather, not 70's.

beer or a mixed drink....I'm easy to please.

social distancing..... Just tired of it all...I know I'm not alone.

I'd sure like to tell a few people to go fly one !! Cant wait for tomorrow to be over. I'll be up north for the rest of the week, and am glad of it. Limited cell...NO TV...just light music in the background...if at all.

this weather blows..........

Got 1” this am. Having fun. Happy Friday all.

Thanks for the updates Mike. I'm thinking the white potential is still a Rt 6 and NE "event" and based on dynamics, it would be elevation driven with white rain in valleys and coating -2 or 3 for best spots Bradford-Susquehanna counties. I'm guessing I get a slushy 1-2 in Gaines. What's your thinking? Any further shift south, and I'd think maybe far NE poconos would be jackpot for any appreciable snows, while we get light snow at end further NW.

water tables approve