pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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Corrections. I hate pivotal. at 42 WEST slightly. at 48 it is EAST notably. was togglin through 0z and 12z and got all discombobulated
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12z
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@60 it is notably east. Likely our 6 hour window of pings for lsv. Updated my timestamps. Not used to pivotal sorry for confusion
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@54 it came west. just toggled. through it. its maybe 25 miles but follows the tucked theme. UGH
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Euro has initialized......oh the freakin drama. I HATE drama..... But I'll watch this episode of "As our Snow/Sleet Falls"
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NWS still likes me...for now
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Yep. Agreed. Are you buying the "jump" to the western bay?? Several models show almost a retrograde kinda look, and not a progressive one. Thats my rub. Its had a progressive look for days, and now LP jumps west and erodes our precious thermals. IMO thats what I'm hoping is noise and not a noose for my area.
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Yeah complaining about 6 vs 16 is probably not right, but I've been sucked in and see enough to see it in jeopardy. I'm not panicking. If I get a crap ton of sleet on top of 6-10 I'll be alright.
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Hoping that verifies. Guess we'll find out shortly.
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Euro will really tip the scales IMO. Parsing over thermal profiles, we are still safe, although SE is marginally so for a few panels. Thats going over the 700's and 850's, so while best forcing may be NW, we may depend on rates prior to any changeover for eastern locals. Were on the edge, but still have a little buffer.
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CMC loves CTP, but tells me to get tissues ready. Tucked LP is undeniable on nooners. Still scratchin my head tho. In summary of nooners...I have less confidence for mby, but think mag to hazelton and areas around are big winners of the 12 runs.
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weve all seen sh!t go sideways. Need to start paying attention to hi res meso's. and bye and large, you are fine on most.
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k...one more. WRF through end of run still loves us as well. LSV mixes for 5 hrs, but flips back for last couple. I'll sign.
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I'm not sure if we'll be smelling the rain or wiping tears. LSV is scarily close on this verbatim...but verbatim....it's a really nice run for all of us. I'd expect voyager to fill in for happy hour as well. Dont worry pal, i still think you are sitting pretty.
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Thats why I like it...but dont really know that I agree with it.. CAD is our way to the promise land. Still think from what the nooners are saying, that happy hour wont dissapoint. Just my hunch. K...now gotta get some work done.
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Look for trends, not perty colors. Pay attention to qpf distribution. 6z 12z
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GFS will be a crowd pleaser....and somehow i'm in the crowd.... Not sure I'm buying it, but I love the sales pitch.... I dont get the tucked solutions and hope they trend east for happy hour.
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@42 GFS still loves us...
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RGEM tucks into western bay. Waiting for panels, but CTP should be liking it. My nerves are about shot tho....lol nice CCB signal as well. starting to see that again.
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ICON says drive to central NYS for jackspot. I hope the home team saves us.
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But DOOONNNT look at the panels that follow....YUUKK. This one will push people to the ledge. Just assume the germans are messing w/ our subforum. ITS UGLY.
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Go loop the 3k and you'll see a similar presentation. We get decent pivot lovin in eastern pa including LSV on 3k.
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For those worried about the westward jump of qpf max, this should calm ones nerves a bit. It's getting close enough to start adding weight to meso's. imo 6z 12z
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verbatim, no dry slot on 12k. Scratch that off "our" worry list. LP shift NE seemed to save us. I liked the subtle increase of CAD and hope that in the next couple runs we continue to see the HP in Quebec do its thingy to the LSV thermal profiles. Track really was nice, so I'm happy w/ that (and am cool w/ sleet in the mix - just not too much).
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In fairness, you can see at 45 the "dampening" in my area (Lanco). I looked S and SW of me to see the movement of the R/S line and I'm ok w/ what 12z did. It's first out of the nooner gate, and seemed to stop the westward progression of the LP 6z 12z
