pasnownut

i was looking at both 850 and 700's to see how good the column looked, and shouldve posted the 700's as they only looked to get real good once best qpf has left the area (gfs).

You can blame me if that doesnt verify

Thanks. You also just answered my question about Isotherms so no need to reply I was assuming -6 to -10

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 AM Sunday to 5 AM EST Tuesday. tell me last time you saw a 50 hour storm warning in CTP

Readin that to me is akin to my wife readin 50 shades of gray.

15.5" 1.28 qpf

LOL. I'm a team player and totally happy w/ you gettin the creds. When youre looking at ratios, you look mostly at -6 to -10 istotherms for best snow growth?

how does that compare vs 12z?

when he's on board....you know the snow train is rollin.... Let's enjoy this gang.....looking like this is "one for us".

I'd think were too far east to achieve anything more than 12-13:1 as its not that cold of a storm. per GFS heres warmest panel then as coastal gets cranking we see this during max precip. and ccb's. IMO thats great but not cold enough to really fluff it up. Still not a complaint in the world for me.

Now thats a confidence booster. Just looked at the 18z GFS and it looks better than 12z

Until Monday night I dont think your concern is off the table. Big nooners today were pretty much awesome, but its still far enough out there to warrant concern. B's have the short term ability to rob and steal like Yeagermister did in rudolph. Seeing the majors tracks makes me feel we should be able to get somewhere between ctp's conservative approach and some of the nooner Op and Ens guidance. The retrograde really helps the ccb's IMO. Meso's should paint the picture starting tonight

Just parsing over nooners/HH runs as I was helping a friend do some projects. I dont believe or trust this for a second, but DAMN its something we rarely see. Just stare and dream a little dream.

we did the important stuff..... liquor store.

as much as i want big totals I'm still happy with that. Still think we can go higher based on nooners

Crazy to centerpunched inside of 24hrs. We have wiggle room which is all I want no matter how much the sno sticks measure.

Yep. We still need to keep the taint part in back of our minds. Think back to Monday. While setup is rather different we’re always close to warmth so no Restin easy until 0zs for you festus trainer and I

Sweet Jesus I like how you think!!

Agreed

and as its time to start payin more attention to meso's, 3k supports the same trend and puts us squarely in the crosshairs.

It also brought best precip into our forum. Was a tick south of 6z. Not sure if thats just noise, but it was notable. IMO it just supports a ctp beatdown. And as always, only look at snowfall maps for trends, and not forecasts for back yard rulers.

out to 39...WAA snows in 12z NAM are really nice so those still worried about coastal should feel good about that. Even if coastal were to poop the bed, you'd still have a blanket of snow on said bed and will help with the cleanup.

When there is a 90% chance you don't get less than this....I'm....well......I'm in.

Thanks for "stopping in". Always great to have you.

Thats a really nice and reasonable snapshot of what we should expect (with a few surprises thrown in). As suggested yesterday and by Mag earlier, it look like the precip panels are filling in a bit to reflect the eastery fetch that often is not picked up until we near go time. Hoping the goalposts dont move much today and even if they do move, most in this forum are staring down the barrel of a loaded snow gun. My bar has been 6-10 since Wed. and I'm sticking to it....anything more is just fantastic (although I know the upside could be 3-6" higher based on overnights. Great convos in here the last few days. Let's bring this one home gang. Looking forward to todays runs, and the excitement that comes w/ biggies like this.