pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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As we all are constantly looking for better times in the year of 2020, go loop the nooner GooFuS and you'll see what blocking looks like on a weather model. For some of you youngins, this may be a first, as it feels like it's been forever since we've seen it. I'd guess in the next couple days, some fun runs start to get the chatter goin again. Until then, it's good to be alive and finding our way thru this mess together.
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and with what looks like more chances down the road....its all good.
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LOL. F'in scrooge wins again. Enjoy your snow (Clearfield and pts. west. This is what I've been quietly expecting for us eastern folk.
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I'm sure many (myself included), would love nothing more that to turn a cannon onto 2020 no matter what happens next week. I CANT WAIT to turn the calendar..but yeah some snow to end it on a better note would be great.
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from a flooding perspective its a tough one. enough remaining snowpack holds some of the qpf. The way it looks we'll have bare ground w/ 1" thawed, which wont hold much at all. Thats why i wanted to keep it...+ it'd become concrete.
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and hey, by the looks of it.....FREE CARWASHES FOR EVERYONE!!! I'll shut up now.....
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Yeah I saw that too, but most models suggesting 1-2", so hopefully that wont verify. Ground is frozen in many areas. NAM is wettest of the bunch, and hopefully it just its bias showing. Other major leaguer's show less.
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Agreed. I've accepted the fate of my back yard being brown/green for christmas, and just look at it as though we are clearing the slate for hopefully a decent/sustained run. Just turnin the - into a +.....well I'm trying anyway. At this juncture, I'm nervous about those north of 80 holding onto much after the xmas eve deluge (btw, 6z nam really took away the anafrontal snows). Never placed any faith in that happening anyway. Couple mood flakes would be nice though.
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looking at overnights, you can see the changes starting to happen wrt the southward progression of systems post Christmas, as the blocking is starting to show its teeth, and cutters may now be southern sliders... A much better way to run a winter around here. Not evident on all models, but GFS suite was notable. Below is the blocking that is setting up and rolling forward it retrogrades a bit towards being a W based NAO and helps to create a broad trough in conus..
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Well we all shoveled some a few days ago so I think we all can agree that weee far better off than a year ago (weather wise of course).
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That’s when the 50/50 starts to show its influence and you can see forcing underneath. Should see more NS energy coming south instead of cutters headed to Wisconsin.
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Looking at 500’s I’ve seen worse loops in my life. If one is to believe towards the end we start to see a monster 50/50 retrograde and force everything under. In between it still looks progressive but chances for fun to be had. Just going to need good timing to get it done.
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Looks like it wants to snow here. Just a pretty early winter day. Enjoy everyone!
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Thanks Flathead. Never too old to love time with our kids. Enjoy yours. And fwiw Im not looking to get into anyone’s good graces either. Just sharing a good time like many do here.
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12zs do not inspire much confidence in my hopes for a white Christmas. dirty brown soaking wet coal for me (and many). Yuck let’s hope that was a flop and tomorrow we flip. Not likely but one sure can hope. just got in from a 1.5 hr snowmobile ride with my almost 22 yr old son that “wanted to go for a ride with his dad”. I’ll take that and be happy with whatever the weather gives us. Have a good one hang.
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We got down to 13 at 8 am.
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I agree w showme and mag wrt anafront snow. We know it usually doesn’t end well for us. As we likely have s and sw wind with ridging out ahead of the front like mag suggested, we dont want heavy rain in addition. Goodbye snowpack. Let the front be dry and set the table for trailing systems. im pretty convinced much of the states snowpack (except LSV) is safe for white Christmas. I’m glad we got sleet as that should help us down here. With Upper 20’s and low 40’s it’s gonna be close for us down here.
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as Mag suggested, the warm flow out in front coupled w/ the notable qpf (as per 12z run), would be the death of many snowmen in the state prior to the frontal passage and what looked like something popping on it, and then we try to freshen up whatever snow is left on the backside. verbatim, yes west would do better, but if that storm goes poof, you'd likely see much less anafrontal snows. With it 7 days out, lots of different looks still likely.
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Yeah i wasnt focusing on MBY, but thought CTP and west might be liking the potential. I'd rather not lose any snow as well, so yeah just a frontal boundary and setting up something to follow would be great. It really did ramp up the qpf, which would kill our precious pack, but I was just not seeing enough spacing for something to hang back/stay separate. Plenty of model runs left and if that could happen, then all the better.
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Don't look now, but there's a chance for some mood snow late weekend and early next week. Couple models trying to link up some energy.
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12/25/02 was just a Christmas miracle. 12" when they were calling for like 2-4, and then kept upping totals as the dreaded changeover went from delayed to denied. Was just a thing of beauty and a rarity when short term/nowcasting went in our favor. I spent that morning watching kids n gifts w/ one eye, and 56k modem slooowly downloading radar and NWS updates w/ the other. The good ol' days.
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12/29 looks to have some potential as well. Nice to see as well, but I'm getting ahead of myself as were waayyyyy out there. Stronger signal for fun times ahead is good enough for now.
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12Z GFS is a perfect depiction of what i was mentioning earlier and having the LP ride the boundary. Go look at 144-160. It's almost like they let me draw the maps how I wanted it to happen. That'd be a crowd pleaser for sure. Here's the money panel but go look at the hours above. Happy weekend all.
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ain't that the truth.
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If the trough axis were more SW/NE oriented, then I'd absolutely be rootin for Pa's scenario, but as depicted, the N/S orientation will really deepen the trough, favoring areas S of us.
