pasnownut

Morning and TGIF! Takeaway from overnights and early morning runs suggest we have a shot at next weeks event. GEPS more bullish on getting southern/eastern crew into some action. GEFS also improved, but still not as excited. That said, they both came north, so thats a small victory, and we need the north trend to continue, because this one has some work to do, but I still feel better about our chances....not great...but better.

was on the road today....glad i was, as I'da spent waayyy too much time tracking NOTHING. poop is right. Happy hour at least shows that there is a storm once again, so there's that.

Yeah I also have an affinity for dark winter days, but they are far better when the landscape is white.

Please ........NO. There can be enough debby'in when we are gettin pooped on by the snow gods. And from what I can tell....you prob couldn't be like that if you tried...but please don't try to prove me wrong....lol I'm just happy for it to be looking and feeling like winter (even if its only snowpiles down here - normalish for piedmont areas)

Well...for those that were looking for a little sumthin for the weekend....head to southern VA. Just a blah weekend in store. We are out of time for for any surprises that would be substantial enough to get much more than cirrus up here...and that's looking like a stretch. Good news is that 1/12 system looks to still have a shot for us but 500s still have a progressive (southern) look to them (on op and ens guidance), thanks to Mr. NAO, so we've got some work to do to gin one up for that timeframe. Still beats the hell outta last year....especially for those that have snow on the ground, as it looks to be going nowhere for weeks to come. Good for you. I'm still trackin, but the scent is weak right now....but listen for the bark, cause you may hear one in the coming days.

and if the GFS only went out to 408 hours.......we'd be prepppin for snomagedon. fwiw in real news GEFS ticked NW again for weekend non event. Not sure how much weight one puts in ens run at 78hrs but as a true weenie, one puts ones faith in the model that gives best snows right? May just be noise...dunno?

Ice skating anyone. Posted just for fun as its been a while since colors like this have shown up in our region.

@showmethesnow all i've been doing is paying attention to the 500 panels (NS and heights). That NS energy did lift out a bit yesterday, and that coupled w/ slightly higher heights was what I was looking for to give this thing a chance. IF thats got any merit, today into overnights needs to show it. Also to Mags point, the block seems to be a bigger player than I thought it would be, so gut says any shifts would be subtle, but man I'm pulling for your post to verify. Like you said, its really more of a MA deal, but as us SE Pa guys are back to normal w/ snow....we'll take what we can get. I'm staring at my pile of chips.....but knuckles hit the table for this round. Lets see what the dealers say in a bit.

Yeah I was hoping getting that NS retro look out of the way might help for this weekend, but your right, blocking looks to keep this one well under us (a bit to my surprise, but hey, that's the fun in this). Still wouldn't surprise me to see DC and pts south get a little something this weekend. It has ticked back NW a bit, but were pretty far left of the goalposts for that one. Onto the next. The d7 and d12 panels you posted are rather droolworthy and what snow weenies dream of. If they verify, it will be fun times for sure, as its been a while since we've seen some clean A's come at us from the south. That would surely open the door for them. Lets just find something to jam into the door to keep it open as long as we can. Glad you got into the goods this weekend. Weather World said Sus. county got 14" this weekend. Still waiting down here.

congrats. Daughter is at cabin in Tioga and suggests 2-4 up there. She's not into the weather like i am, so be kind on the measurement

Parsing over the overnight runs, I see showme's write up and agress that the the NS is the problem, but i also have a problem w/ the evolution at 500 (GFS and Para), as you see NS energy retrograde/back in from south of northern quebec to NY/PA border. loop 500's from 90-150 and you'll see my point. I think that is the main fly in the snow ointment for this system, and I'd suggest watching that bundle of energy. As the NAO is getting established (big red blob), the energy would likely round the edges of it, and not back into it. Hope that makes sense. If we clean that up, our storm has the chance to gain latitude and offer some of us a chance at snow. I just dont see how we go from progressive to blocked up in a week. Just my spitballing for the day.

I wouldnt write friday off yet. Pattern is just getting established, and I cant envision how we go from cutters, straight to suppression. That would be more of a concern in the following waves as the NAO starts to show its teeth. Just my hunch. fixed. I can't envision

I think we have a decent shot at Fri/Sat system as most guidance has it below us, honestly 500 panels at 12z look much cleaner on grampy GFS where Para is 2 pieces that don't really phase. I still think we have a shot at something measurable, and as we all know mid month seems to be shaping up for more chances...we should have more in the pipeline. Only concern is that we still seem to have LR guidance on ops showing the cutter risk, and I'm not really sure why as ens guidance has a rather decent look for systems to continue come at/under us. Just an observation and trying to wrap my head around why. In summary yeah we should have some stuff to chat about and that's loads better than most thought only a few weeks back. I think this upcoming period of fun is brought to you by the all to elusive acronyms SSW and -NAO. Enjoy your snow today. Just rain here, but we might get a little if rates help the column like some are seeing. Not expecting it, but we are close enough here in the LSV to hope for a bit of fun. Ground was white this am and hope it will be later today. Thats my win bar. Chat more this week as I've enjoyed my christmas break "away from the world". Happy New Year to all. Nut

on and off flakeage here in Lanco, but nothing of substance Hoping for some action later. Love snow on Christmas, especially this year. Merry Christmas gang!

56 in Lanco. Couple spots of white left I the yard. They will be gone by morning. hoping the best for all low landers. wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and may your ground be white. Mine won’t.

Potential = Something you can’t shovel.

I know. I guess i just think of the damage/challenges and that takes away from the weather "fun" part for me (plus it could be my house that eats a tree). That would suck any day, but especially at this time of year. I'm all for quietly turning the friggin calendar and flippin 2020 the big bird.

My buddies that are in power/internet service sector that are on call tomorrow do not agree, as its unlikely you have heavy rain, wind and no power/service issues. I don't envy them one bit, and I"m sure they'd like to stay home w/ their families. I hope its a dud.

I've got nothin for ya.........................................

Yeah I think the models are just starting to adjust to the blocking. Likely blowing the dust/rust off those parts as its been a while. hehe w/ nina fading and blocking looking to have some legs, at the minimum it should give some windows of opportunity, and is a welcome sight. So tired of the constant cutting that we've see for far too long. Looking forward to see vorts passing south of us, and seeing what happens from there. I'd be fine w/ some overrunning as well..so long as we are on the cold side of the boundary.

I can remember a snowmobile trip that we were going through Pulaski to Adams and seeing a couple blobs of snow and then saying wth did we just come up here for. We then got off the Adams Center exit and started climbing "The Hill", and by the time we were going through Barnes corners, seeing sled tracks going across the roads, it was just mind boggling. We went from basically nada to about 18-24" otg. We see that at the cabin in Tioga, but to a much smaller scale. My place sits on a west facing ridge at 2275', and believe me it makes a difference.

wrt to the ridge bridge, one can see source region getting closer to vodka kinda cold, and not just run of the mill arctic stuff. Like I said, closer, but not there yet (if it does materialize is also a stretch), but no doubt verbatim, cold will not be an issue if this verifies.

Redfield seems to get shellacked as well. Southern Tug

Getting closer...

I'm most familiar w/ Barnes Corners, and if I was able (would be going solo, cause NOO waaaayy would my wife ever consider moving to the snow capital of NYS), that's where i'd go if it were purely for snow. Brantingham and Old Forge are pretty as well, just not as snowy.