pasnownut

Ops need time grasshopper.........

and at any given day or timestamp during a "good" period, you can often find blue over your house. Yes, we also see the same trends you see, but just dont flip sh!t every 6 hours. You've been at this almost as long as i have and should know that very rarely do we get into longwave stable patterns that just are chalk fulla blue over your house. Of late, we've become experts at bootleggin more times than not. Regardless, the upcoming period will continue to show you blue at varying intervals on varying models...and when we start seeing consensue build...I'll get excited right along w/ you. Until then....keep it real.

You should by a lifetime supply of Dramamine.....they say it really helps.

but..... theres no BLUE over your house...... toss it. Good lord you need to change your name to flip flop

Nah, I dont look at weather/life like you do.....my wife woulda left me a LOONNNGGGGGG time ago. Try taking a look from a realist perspectve...not the 1 run that gave you 12+. It really helps.

honestly dude....take a break and come back when you get some snow.... Weather isnt Amazon...you just don't see something on a screen that you like, order it.... and have it show up in (what used to be) 2 days. The period coming up has potential....yes stones have been kicked down the road.... blah blah blah. Stop focusing on living and dying every 6 hours....it really takes away from the skill you have, because you should be better than this by now.

does dizzying/notable/exciting make you feel better.... point is, there is an active pattern shaping up, and while not every one goes our way, chances are that we can score on 1 or 2 for sure.

The one the just threw 6 shots of precip at us in a period that looks to have potential. I'm not JI, and don't need to see BLUE over my house for every event to realize that opportunities are on the horizon. If you cant see the same potential...I guess I'm a little surprised at that. While we cant shovel potential, we need potential to shovel.

actually it can only change 32-34 (start time dependent).... just having fun.... Para says buckle up....its gonna be a fun ride in search of the promise land. Vorts every couple days.

and while the weenie in us is all in for the Para to be on point (just watched the loop and yeah...that'd make for a memorable stretch of winter for all of us). Its an Op run. Gut says ol man GFS is about to belly under in the coming days as tellies suggest it should. Yeah we've been fooled before, but we've got multiple indicies in our favor....not just 1.

its 3-5 above average "up" here as well. I'd bet a dollar to a dime last years departures were 2x+ at same timeframe w/ no end in sight.

If you are putting so much faith in an Op run at 264hrs....there's really not much one can do for you. Kidding aside you and i both know that's not happening, and will look notably different by the weekend.

I get it, but In fairness, last year was weeks and weeks of well above normal temps, and not a hint of snow (real or digital), and it didn't feel remotely close to normal winter. This year (while some still wait) has had snow in the MA to NE, and its still early in the game. Not sure how that's not a +. Just because someone's backyard is brown (like mine has been for weeks), doesn't make it a horrid winter. I've seen several periods where some/many from this forum were celebrating snow this year. That's great, and more likely to come. We all literally and figuratively need to just chill out a bit.

You and I have different ideas of what cautious optimism is pal...lol Joking aside, we all feel it and are equally as anxious, but we also know pattern flips arent light switches....and nor are the opps that happen during said periods. I think it fair to say that we have a decent window coming up, and with all of the vorts flying through the chute, its not unreasonable to see a surprise "score". Lets just keep the chances coming and hope for hits...big and small. Still lightyears better than last years dumpster fire IMO.

Oops....I forgot to add one name to Ji's wreckin crew............

Not sure how/ why but maybe Wiggie has taken to Ji's infectious persona..... I'm of the mindset (like many) that with the upcoming pattern and the ebs and flows of change we are seeing on the models, that it wont take too much to luck into something (appetizer kinds stuff) while waiting for that 372hr shellacking to get closer....

and i dare say a necessary evil unless you are into suppression depression. Scary i know, but we might need forcing to bring things up this way as battle zone might be too far south. Guess we'll know in a few days.

Ops are still just not buying into the Ens runs, but I look forward to them correcting in the coming days.....we'll we hope anyway.

Just remember that a while back, LR guidance suggested this big cutter would reshuffle the deck to a good look, and that seems to be on track. And yes, if this is the January thaw....I'd be giddy if this is as bad as it gets before we go deep winter..... Seeing the effects of the SSW coupled w/ the NAO/AO, it is rather exciting to see the players coming back to the field after a long hiatus.

Yeah, you've been sniffin out the upcoming period and it is great to see a ridge bridge straight from the hinterlands of the north. Been a while since we've seen that on the maps and it was nice to see yesterday. -pna isnt scary w/ a stout -nao as progged so bowling balls across the conus is fine w/ me. A little help w/ WAR is also fine as it feeds the machine to the north, but its a scary ask as it's cooked us oh so many times and seems to rule the weather roost here in the east. Gonna need that a bit as the STJ is pretty far south IMO. It's just really refreshing to not be in a shut out winter, and yeah, seeing chances starting to pop up is pretty cool. I also saw the coastal pop for this weekend, and said something in the MA forum about it yesterday. Looks a tad late for most, but maybe a little in the E/NE regions as it gets cranking. Pocono ski resorts will approve. Yeah Blizz....you better clean out your cache....cause you may be filling it up w/ snow maps in the coming weeks. IMO its a frequent small/med kinda period, but maybe we can score a notable even as well. Any snow is welcome to me....so its all good.

Looking at 12z GFS for Friday and seeing trough going negative is letting the trailing energy pop a coastal just east of us. Looking just beyond, i'd dare say it looks acceptable so far. I'd not toss it, cause its the best look we've had in a couple days and its only 5 days out. Small step in right direction.

seeing how its soon to be "state run" it needs approved by the bosses.... I'm just KIDDING.......I hope. LMAO

the fast flow on most guidance seems to really be the problem, we can get anything to lock in and work in conjunction w/ each other (like normal long wave stable patterns that snow lovers dream of). That said, its likely a timing thing and something may sneak up in short/med term guidance. While Im bummed, it still feels like winter, so I'm ok w/ it. Was in Phillipsburg this past weekend and they had a rather solid/dense snowpack that is going NOWHERE. Lots of walking through the woods and quite a few times had snow up to my knee. Just wish we had some down here, but it's all good. My son was up north and said he saw more snowmobile activity than he's ever seen. I'm happy for the businesses that typically struggle, and hope this helps a bit, as this year, I'm sure they are far below in cash reserves due to the mess of the last year. I don't envy them.

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2. Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it. Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down. NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up. I hate that.

nah...next week still has time, and 12z's keep it close enough. just like for this weekends non event, pay attention to the NE. IF we can get a little more relaxing, that will help to get us the lattitude we need for this thing to come up and visit. My gut says it can happen. at 500, you can see it lifting out a bit. CMC show how it stays south. Looknig at the CMC, it looks simialr to ULL issue we have for this weekend. Hope that goes poof in upcoming runs. Bear in mind, that as NAO relaxes, you may lose thermal boundaries. Soo many ways to fail it seems.