pasnownut

FYP

fwiw, the nooner meso's had a nice uptick for LSV/SC Pa and points East. I'd take what they are selling and be happy.

Thanks and nice call from a week ago. I remember the read but forgot your post about the western trough. That's the only sensible reasoning for the cutting to be happening while we've got blocking, but still I just don't quite see how that LP can meander NE right into it instead of getting forced under? Thats the point I'm trying to make. The upcoming non storm for Thursday makes more sense from what should happen w/ the blocking. Obviously timing/spacing probably plays into the forcing as well

CMC's evolution for the 1/31 deal is wonky, but I'd sign right now....Prolonged snow event verbatim. Misses the transfer though and shows the strung out look.

Thx Mag. I totally get what your saying and yes, if we didn't have the NAO, wed be totally out of the game. I'm not complaining, but I'm trying to understand how the above bolded part can happen w/ the blocking we are having? A weakening LP shouldn't just slide north?? FRD had been sharing the thermal profiles in Canada for the last few weeks and it really has been just "average" cold, and not below normal (which is often needed to get it cold enough to force systems under the block). The default for systems to cut is unnerving to me, and in my mind, this is the new default (warm waters off east coast)?. I also think the -PNA is really wrecking us here in the east even w/ the blocking as it still promotes ridging between events which promotes the cutter looks IMO It looks as thought the PNA is heading towards + which may promote better troughing here and let systems come under and not cut. AO/NAO looks all over the place, but mean still neg, so that may show better looks down the road. Just my thoughts.

I want to think its just bad timing, but time and again, we are coldish pre storm, and cold enough post storm, but as we struggle to sustain cold, thats why this is happening. Its just not stable enough to do its work when systems attack it.

What we are now seeing is what i was worried about late last week. We still see systems being able to cut (tonight),or get suppressed (this Thursday's non event). It is really mindboggling to me, but when you look at the 500's it "makes sense"....even though it doesn't. I think if we had a slightly colder thermal profile wrt our "precious" NAO, it would have things bellying under a bit more (thinking todays event), but as the source region is just coldish, it lacks the strength to force systems south, and lets systems force west. Just something I've been pondering for some time now. Does that make sense.

Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them. I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine. Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days. Would feel better if it were 2-3 though.

+1 with both of you and trainer. Only caveat is that we have -NAO and that throws a flag up for the "inevitable" tick north to me. Would probably be easy to find periods of -NAO in the last 20yrs and see what percentage jogged north vs got shunted south.

Yeah I know, but if you look at the "blocking" for next week, there's not much when we need it (LSV anyway) and our thermals are marginally ok (as of 12z's). Not sure i feel confident we are safe down here. Seeing CMC AND EURO come north scares me as were still 5 days out. We needed them to hold for another day or so for me to be able to sleep well wrt this event.

Shortened the abbreviation. -NO

and to further understand my concern. Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus. Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon. GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days. Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range.

Bingo.......doesn't inspire alot of hope/comfort as consensus still lags inside 7 days. Fortunately every model cycle seems to have one or 2 ways to snow, but goalposts are boucing all around and Canderson is too afraid to step on the field to kick da ball.

and 12hrs later Point I'm trying to drive home is that players are on the field, but not sure who is qb (should be NAO- but his passer rating is not so good), and who is punter (we have several of them vying for said position. Thats quite the shift in 6 hours. GFS just went to "lost mode". Is a storm coming....I think so, but as much as we follow this stuff, I cant say w/ too much confidence. Euro stays on point, yeah that'll help, but it too had us snowing this week only 7 days ago.

I'm betting we see less than 10 flakes here in Lanco. Getting good at waiting. I'll tell ya, it has been niice for the northern locals, as theyve had snow OTG for a month now, and keep getting refreshers every coupld days. Thats what I was hoping would happen down here. All we've been able to do is retain snow piles :(. lol its all good.

We’ve not pinned down a threat since mid Dec. and yeah I’m a bit snakebit and until todays nooners finally showing some continuity, the players have been on the field, but we’ve got to get some first downs, not fumbles if we’re going to score. Hoping tonight moves the chains forwards.

Yeah Mag the nooners were looking like a few chances at scoring with the block doing what it should and forcing systems under us. Need NAO to stay west based or systems might cut to friggin Idaho. This propensity for systems to try and cut just rattles the nerves. If we can see more consensus build in the next few runs I’m going to get excited. As crazy as it is the euro is far enough south that we could have suppression depression for the Mon Tues system. As a result The next 2 might have a chance to gain latitude and get us in the goods. If that’s not enough we all remember how excited we were a week ago for this week and the snow shredder NAO tore em up. As the MA forum often complains ...many ways to fail. I’m not Debbyin just trying to keep it real in here. I want blizz’s maps to work as much as anyone here....and my snowmobiles...want it more.

hehe... it was fun, but what an easy target. Nut is quietly lurkin and was thinking the Op runs might belly under the nice NAO and was thinking it didnt make sense. I'm glad todays runs brought some looks as to what I/we should expect with such blocking, but am not overly confident in much anymore. One can only see so many good looks "vaporize" to rattle logic and what one thought one understood about weather/physics..... and the cutter thing....it really is annoying....and concerning at the same time as I fear it may be part of the warming base state and what the models/analogs are struggling to recognize. ie. just because you once saw this....doesnt mean what it once did. All that said, it still looks like a fun few weeks coming up. Not looking much further for sanity's sake.

So now we wont get cut, but NAO is a shredder. Upslope and lake snow folk approve, but its just a meat grinder verbatim. Just need some southern energy to get involved and we'd be seeing lots of little pieces of overrunning IMO.

agreed and not a far fetched solution.

Typical bias. It will “let go” of it in a few runs.

IMO ops are still trying to correct w/ the blocking, but to your point, look at the last 2 storms and how they looked a week ago vs where they ended up (shredder). Indicies suggest suppression is a valid worry, but until you stop seeing systems headed for Chicago, and everything going under us....then i'd start to worry. I think next couple days start to shed light on strength of NAO/EPO/AO and what it translates to here in the MA. FWIW we all are better positioned than interior NE, as its frozen popcorn farts for the forseeable future for them.

I googled that pork thingy youre makin. What time shall we be over? Sounds delish...

He already knew that....just needed to read a post sayin it so he could tell his friends....... I read it on the internet. Alright JI, I'm done for now. You got your blue for at least 6 hrs (on a couple models mind you). Relish the time my friend.

lol....howd that work for ya...? I've been filling my time w/ keeping active during these boring times....and as of today trolling the hell outta Ji in the MA thread. For a dude that really knows his sh!t, he really needs to learn to keep it wound up tighter...