pasnownut

So shift that 50 miles north and u see what LSV gets. Jipped.

Yeah I also noticed a chunk taken outta da pack today. Argh

Go back and look at the maps that I posted this morning. There was plenty of room and ridging out ahead for this to trend poorly. That’s exactly what I was worried about. Whether it’s a b or an a doesn’t matter if trough axis lets s/w flow out ahead screw our precious thermals. To many rain is rain no matter how we achieve it. Hp needs to hold for cad to save the day.

This is what I'm getting at w/ all of the chattin up Thursday, when merely 24 hours ago you looked like 6-9 up there, and now I'd wager 1-3 or 2-4 at best. Upper air pattern for Thursday has similarities to todays event, so I'd be cautious at "throwing this one away in search of the next" kind of mentality. Yes, next one does appear like a single system that doesnt cut or transfer, so it should be a "cleaner" event to follow....but it too will not be without further adjustments to what we see today vs where it ends up.

Now that how to talk dirty. south and east at 72 is the new sexy for the LSV to get snow.

If that bullseye were 50 miles south, I'd be way more enthused..... But I sure am interested

and to get that thumpage in marginal thermal profiles....we need best lift/forcing. Verbatim (my new favorite word), we dont have that down here. I80 does and only briefly. Sorry guys. I'm not wanting to poo poo. I want a good snow/sleet event as much as ya'll do.

I see what you did there..... not funny.....but true. lol

lols.. you can have it bud. As much as i want and love snow, I'm a realist to the core, and that's how I roll.

and 540 line running right along I80 at same timestamp w/ a steady SW wind. Ice ICE baby. sleet n zr at 24-25 deg. BTW this is the "money" panel that shows your front end lovin. Its beyond a razors edge IMO. I'm not here to argue, so dont think I am. We normally sit on same side of the snow fence, but think we need to temper expectations. Thats all.

currently 33 w/ dp of 23. todays high is supposed to be.....33. evap cooling may drop temp breifly, but wind is SW

I know, I veiwed precip panels, but to get 4" and watch it all wash away.....meh. Guess what i'm sayin is verbatim is a far cry from reality...especially w/ models of late, so I take them w/ a large dose of caution. Thats all. It's yours to bring home. I'm just being real and sharing my worries.

thats just great.... #we r debbies

so heres the razors edge max thumpage panel that will adjust north like 75 miles till go time. I/we will be well south of the line where magic happens. With ridging in place, that screams taint at best. Just not enough wiggle for me to wanna jiggle.

You know I'm just busting....but I'm trying to not set hopes too high. Yes we get a thump verbatim, but one needs reminded of how many "good looking" storms have gone north this year. Thats my worry bud, and I'm stickin to it. You bring this one in Blizz. I'm rootin for ya, but would be lying if I said i wasn't nervous. Heads for more coffee.............

feel out da room???? lol I guess thats the psu thing you guys were chattin about? Dunno man, I just dont want to get set up once again. Yes its been a decent run, but down here in the lsv its not been near as good as what you snow hogs have been getting.... and yeah....I hate mondays (except the ones that are holidays )

confluence is further north on thusday to my snakebit eyes. Yes it is a bit more pronounced, but verbatim its another norther deal for most. I dont see the arctic air you do, but ok. tonight thusday

Dunno....By thursday, it may be a state college to Erie special..at best. The norther adjustments are just relentless, and quite frankly....pissin me off. Go loop the GFS...thursday setup looks alot like tonights. I just dont feel it like you do. Hope I'm wrong but someone needs to show me something more than snow maps to make me "feel better". too much ridging and HP like tonight wont anchor. I feel like Thursday may end up at best, slightly south of tonights mess. Sorry to piss in ya'lls morning cheerios, but I just dont see anything thats going to keep from getting cut once again. 500's for tonight. Thurday

shoulda read down a bit...thx for sharing.

EPS vs OP....Please say EPS is SE..... Please Edit...just looked and EPS is slightly W of Op for late week. Still time, and today reeled me back in a bit. I'll sacrifice Tuedsay for a refresher Thursday...I'm easy like that

Dont think Im not happy for what we've snuck in so far...not my point. I'm looking at maps for the upcoming week (especially Thurs) ala GFS and that is what my frustration is. Still enough time for changes...good or bad

Yeah reality is that we win some we lose some and your bolded statement is very true. I'm not giving up, but just not getting why what normally looks like a perfect setup, still ends up so far north like 80+ % of the time (I said 75 the other day being conservative). Has to be the NAO heading pos. that is lifting the boundary north. Hey CMC looked like 5% better for Thursday....lol

Its just beyond frustrating how the new default pattern is one that cuts west. You'd think the warm waters off the east coast would be a magnet for storms, but instead they prefer Chicago. Personally I'm really struggling w/ this "new norm" and am trying to look for why this seems to be the case. When I saw the runs over the past few days I was rather certain that even w/ the loss of the NAO the antecedent cold coupled w/ the pretty well placed HP, that this would look better on screen and CAD would win the day. Another learning lesson for me.

0zs not lookin good for Tuesday so far so I went and looked at tellies as I had some time to dig a bit. AO spike and NAO to +1 ish and IMO look to be the likely reason for storm track heading west for this week as a result. That said they look like they may head twds neutral starting later this week so I’m hoping prime climo can help us as we get beyond this spike. I now fear this week may trend worse instead of better and not sure things can stay under us. Sure hope I’m wrong but we know how hard it been without the NAO and we’re losing it. Hope he comes back soon. Boo

Oh I think yours is coming. No NWS alert needed and I still switch with you. You guys have been doing pretty well up there eh??