pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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Just confirmed the 6z euro eps members are se of the op. We good.
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x2. Its so fun when we have stuff like this to track. I think the retrograde/stall will only be realized starting tonight. IF that look holds, it might get a little crazy in here, even in Lanco. Any further inland tho, and I start running outta wiggle room.
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Thats comforting for us LSV folk, but as you suggest, its a great storm just as the op presents it. Its a little to early to be nitpickin anyway (as i currently am guilty of doing - lol) If all holds today and tonight, its going to be fun to see this play out. and as i suggested yesterday, the pattern looks like more chances in the coming weeks. Just loving having winter around.
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Goalposts narrowing with all of us in them. just need euro to stop the northern ticks. As cold is on the way out that’s a concern, but I’m just being picky right now and I don’t want us to fail.
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And to add to that the retrograde as depicted would give ample time for ccb’s/deform to really do its thingy. models should start to show that soon.
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In truth that was a notable jump north. not concerned.... yet.
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Did that yesterday!! well done overnight crew!!
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0z had 999mb and 12 had 992 just a tick south @ OBX. My gut says thats part of what we saw today.
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Thats why i posted. Its called wiggle room and as you know, some of us dont often get that (and still may not as its 4 days out).
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If this storm happens as modeled....we may never let him leave again. Hi bubbles.....! We missed you
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said it yesterday, thats a win for me. Im not expecting what the Euro just showed, but many solutions show long duration, so thats a win no matter what the snowstick measures.
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I'll let the descriptors up to the individual but as we still have some less ideal transfers showing up, Its nice to have the big kahuna where it is right now IMO
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Its a doozy. Someone post perty snow pics. BTW, it is really really close to CMC (if one toggles bak n forth). Going to be interesting to see who caves. Going to buy more chips....the Euro's hand is hot.
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
pasnownut replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Did that hurt to say? -
INCOMING at 120. Better cad showing up. May be a forum wide winner. 0z 999mb 12z 992mb about a smidge south of 0z near OBX
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
pasnownut replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
The models wore him down..... He caved -
January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
pasnownut replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hoping to add the King to the list in 20 min. -
January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
pasnownut replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Navgem kills primary and overruning and just pops a perfect coastal. Souther and Easter folks approve -
agreed. Likely more qpf back NW due to speed and fetch. If it holds close to this, i'd expect better precip panels to show up.
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Snow maps are not too shabby. Entire forum approves of 4-8 w/ 10" lollies. Rather reasonable outcome IMO.
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Primary dies a little earlier, and coastal is just a beaut. Only thing its missing is NW quadrant of precip, because at 994 and slow speed, I'd expect more qpf back into CTP/NEPA.
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If that happens as modeled, yeah I'd love the long duration mood snows after thermals recover. After all sleet is for pack retention. Buckle up, cause there's something following as well. 500s at 192 notably diff. and less ridgy here...another to watch?? time will tell.
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Dont get me wrong, I'm not complaining whatsoever, but merely pointing out things to watch. I'd absolutely take what the GFS is serving....even if I only get 4", but its hard to swallow when true central gets another 8-12"
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and secondary pops east. Not worrying yet, but hoping ens guidance is south and west for primary and secondary, or LSV wont approve. Mag to NEPA will
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Thats EXACTLY what i worry about.
