pasnownut

Yeah man. Ridin the line fo sho. We DO NOT WANT the mother load of cold over us, as we'd be sending various hand salutes to the Southern locals. In this pattern, we want to be CLOSE to the boundary (just south of us) and see what gets thrown at us. Thats what i was gettin at yesterday. Were not going to win every event, but as you suggest, things can and likely will sneak up on us. Hell, look at the adjustments in the last 24 hrs. Northern Pa went from nothing to catbird seat (relatively speaking). That could very well by LSV by early next week.

Ok, now that we've cleaned out the friggin trash.....someone go find us somethin to raise our spirits. Nooners starting and NAM looks perty for the Northers in the group...... sno hogs

this times 100.... Its happened time and time again in the last few years. One needs to store this away in ones mind for future dreamy looks that we get on the models. Looking at snow maps is no worse than looking at 850/2m temp panels. They both are equally misleading and have a direct correlation on one another....ie cause-effect

But to that end, some were "sold on the cold" that was coming and that's why those of us that always "look north" when seeing fun stuff, as we know it typically verifies a couple/few ticks north of where we want it. The northerm adjustment has been inevitable for the last few years....why....dunno...warming base state, but its real and we are seeing it once again. While northern locals may not get 45.2" we'd all be giddy to be sitting under the big numbers in hopes that 1/2 of it verifies....while down here we just wave to our northern brethren and send a salute.....I'll let you decide what your hand salute looks like

Thats what we were discussing yesterday. So many moving parts, its near impossible to accurately predict cause- effect of each system and what it does for the one right on its heels. IMO thats why we see little continuity on the models even as we are well inside mid term and approach near.

FWIW EPS Ens is notably East of Op for both of next weeks storms. Like lock that sh!t in kinda east....if they hold next week would flat out be best week of winter IMO.

At least that has been pretty consistent on several models. Imo that one has a chance.

Yeah it may well be ice but verbatim we are close to a lot more taint. Not what I wanted to see.

HH NAM is about 1 move away from raining on my pre valentines eve activities. I wanna toss but fear we may be wet for Saturday. This one isn’t trending well for LSV.

I know several teachers.....your assesment is spot on. Smart ones are fine...average/sub par.....notsomuch. I've spoken personally w/ them about your very concern.

I think its a blended approach, because ens/analogs are always helpful, but knowing climo surely IS critical.....your boy Horst for example. Only fly in the ointment is that no 2 systems are alike and base state/tellies only help to narrow goalposts. I think minor perturbations become more notable @40N because we often are ON the line or like i said earlier....ridin it. Go to 37N or 43N and outcomes are far more predictable from a %;s perspecitve. South assumes wet....north assumes white. Around here we fight it out. IMO mets in the N MA really earn their keep as nothing is clean and easy here.

See post above. I think its really just timing issues w/ so many vorts in the pipeline and the challenge of sorting out details of cause/effect between systems and what affect each has on the thermal boundary as we are on the edge of it so to speak. Thats my hunch anyway. IF we were deeper in, it'd be less guessing of what are we getting vs how much snow are we getting. Ridin the line baby....

Thats the biggest part of it IMO. The block being stable makes it a bit more "predictable - ie bellying under said block, but there is so much flying through the chute its really hard to know/see subtle details that make a big diff in BY forecasts. Timing is ultra critical with tight spacing as boundary is in constant flux from prior event or the next one in line.

and to further that, there are always a myriad of ways that we can fail in any given event, whether its climo/telies/model tendencies....blah blah blah.....so yeah lengthy discussions on every model run aren't really warranted, till we get into close range. Then we can nitpick finer details about winners and losers. . In the last few years it seems like we really haven't locked much in outside of 72 which has to be beyond challenging for red taggers.

You bring up a great point to be considered. For that clue we have to look upstairs at 500s to see whats going on, and from my view, it comes at a time of relaxation so to speak. If you look at said 500 panels, there's plenty of ridging to bring it up. IMO we need that 1035hp to keep showing up to keep this thing cold enough w/ good CAD, or we could be in trouble. Remember we are only knee deep in cold....not waist deep. I think that HP showing up was the path to victory. JM $.02.

CMC says the hits keep on coming. Lotsa chances. Some white some pingers n zr but every couple days. Winter continues. Love it.

Trade in for back brace and heart monitor. lol.

and I was wrong....It's my favorite letter...clean A. Stays under w/ no transfer. Typical LSV taint, but a beaut for many.

GFS trolling the hell outta us at 114....and its stuck. Me thinks its gonna be a crowd pleaser miller B with 1035hp nicely parked in Quebec.

wiggle room....lol

Germans showin love to the forum for next Tuesday. Bellied under and nice transfer....all snow. as we are looking for consensus, i think we now have ICON Euro and GFS all in similar camps (staying under us - no cutter). Hoping that theme continues to gain traction....

Ask and ye shall receive.

BTW, everyone in the southern tier should go look at the 6z GooFuS snow maps through end of run for purely entertainment purposes. I'd post, but I don't want anyone to think less of me than they already do.

ICON is a skating rink down here in LSV for Sat event. Shows rain, but 2m temps in mid 20's throughout event. verbatim....we skate. Snow wise, its a bubbles to Voyager special IMO.

I always do and it usually verifies pretty well. Hard part is the deliniation between frozen varieties but like I said earlier, as long as i dont have green above me.....I'm ok w/ whatever