pasnownut

currently 33 w/ dp of 23. todays high is supposed to be.....33. evap cooling may drop temp breifly, but wind is SW

I know, I veiwed precip panels, but to get 4" and watch it all wash away.....meh. Guess what i'm sayin is verbatim is a far cry from reality...especially w/ models of late, so I take them w/ a large dose of caution. Thats all. It's yours to bring home. I'm just being real and sharing my worries.

thats just great.... #we r debbies

so heres the razors edge max thumpage panel that will adjust north like 75 miles till go time. I/we will be well south of the line where magic happens. With ridging in place, that screams taint at best. Just not enough wiggle for me to wanna jiggle.

You know I'm just busting....but I'm trying to not set hopes too high. Yes we get a thump verbatim, but one needs reminded of how many "good looking" storms have gone north this year. Thats my worry bud, and I'm stickin to it. You bring this one in Blizz. I'm rootin for ya, but would be lying if I said i wasn't nervous. Heads for more coffee.............

feel out da room???? lol I guess thats the psu thing you guys were chattin about? Dunno man, I just dont want to get set up once again. Yes its been a decent run, but down here in the lsv its not been near as good as what you snow hogs have been getting.... and yeah....I hate mondays (except the ones that are holidays )

confluence is further north on thusday to my snakebit eyes. Yes it is a bit more pronounced, but verbatim its another norther deal for most. I dont see the arctic air you do, but ok. tonight thusday

Dunno....By thursday, it may be a state college to Erie special..at best. The norther adjustments are just relentless, and quite frankly....pissin me off. Go loop the GFS...thursday setup looks alot like tonights. I just dont feel it like you do. Hope I'm wrong but someone needs to show me something more than snow maps to make me "feel better". too much ridging and HP like tonight wont anchor. I feel like Thursday may end up at best, slightly south of tonights mess. Sorry to piss in ya'lls morning cheerios, but I just dont see anything thats going to keep from getting cut once again. 500's for tonight. Thurday

shoulda read down a bit...thx for sharing.

EPS vs OP....Please say EPS is SE..... Please Edit...just looked and EPS is slightly W of Op for late week. Still time, and today reeled me back in a bit. I'll sacrifice Tuedsay for a refresher Thursday...I'm easy like that

Dont think Im not happy for what we've snuck in so far...not my point. I'm looking at maps for the upcoming week (especially Thurs) ala GFS and that is what my frustration is. Still enough time for changes...good or bad

Yeah reality is that we win some we lose some and your bolded statement is very true. I'm not giving up, but just not getting why what normally looks like a perfect setup, still ends up so far north like 80+ % of the time (I said 75 the other day being conservative). Has to be the NAO heading pos. that is lifting the boundary north. Hey CMC looked like 5% better for Thursday....lol

Its just beyond frustrating how the new default pattern is one that cuts west. You'd think the warm waters off the east coast would be a magnet for storms, but instead they prefer Chicago. Personally I'm really struggling w/ this "new norm" and am trying to look for why this seems to be the case. When I saw the runs over the past few days I was rather certain that even w/ the loss of the NAO the antecedent cold coupled w/ the pretty well placed HP, that this would look better on screen and CAD would win the day. Another learning lesson for me.

0zs not lookin good for Tuesday so far so I went and looked at tellies as I had some time to dig a bit. AO spike and NAO to +1 ish and IMO look to be the likely reason for storm track heading west for this week as a result. That said they look like they may head twds neutral starting later this week so I’m hoping prime climo can help us as we get beyond this spike. I now fear this week may trend worse instead of better and not sure things can stay under us. Sure hope I’m wrong but we know how hard it been without the NAO and we’re losing it. Hope he comes back soon. Boo

Oh I think yours is coming. No NWS alert needed and I still switch with you. You guys have been doing pretty well up there eh??

I guess they think the ridging out ahead pushes the boundary. Tomorrows high here is 34. Just a hunch but I really dont see how it lifts that far N, but I guess they know something I dont....LOL's.

Not at all....but I envy the convo and input that many share down there....right or wrong....Its what I come here for, and nowhere better to do it than where Im not treated like an outcast. this is the best our boards been in a while. Givin props where its due.

Jns said it well earlier. With a stout HP to the north and no bombing LP w/ easterly fetch screwin our thermals, I think this on has a chance to go trainers way.....south and progressive with boundary somewhere in SEPA. EVERY model has tuesdays LP below MD line and far enough that the HP Cad feature (which we often know is late to show on models) ends up trending better for us. Just another hunch I'm goin w/. BTW, great convo in here while I was gone. Were starting to chat it up like the MA thread. Well done.

Don’t wanna agree but fear you are correct. Where the boundary goes after each event is the key to it all. Like mag suggested tho the warm nose looks to be small so let’s hope n pray that more sleet is what we get. Hate ZR.

By the crickets in here....i sense noone knows what da frigs gonna happen next week One can only laugh because as far as things have come....we still are left scratchin the noggin. I'll check back in tomorrow night. Heading to a client meeting and then takin the Mrs away for the evening and dont wanna get caught looking at weather porn...lols Somebody please tug these storms SE 100-150 miles.

Not sure how this isnt a miller B in the making w/ that stout HP holding on like it is but verbatim that 1006mb LP just beats the tar outta that 1043Hp. Whatevs.

I didnt look at last nights euro until now. WOW....thats a lot of ice for tuesday....and a notable bump NW i might add.

at closer view thermal boundery ever so slightly worse. 700/850s ticked NW. Surface looks a little better though. I call foul, but too early to put much thought into it.

something to watch on nooners today. verbatim most show another split wave deal, and remember what just happened 2 days ago. First waive gains traction and dampens part 2. Just an observation and something in the back of my noggin.

Only other thing more challenging than being a met IMO. Especially when they make a living off of LONG term forecasting...