pasnownut

Model dependent but yeah pretty much right after you get to work.....look out :0

Thats very rarely a good deal for our region...unless AO/NAO and EPO is -5...then we all freeze. and sorry. I'm about jipped out on the winter weather of late....call me a hog, but I want a clean snow event down here (although setup says sorry Nut...taint happenin...see what i did there

fortunately we are "runnin outta time" for big shifts in guidance, and we've got some buffer room for decent acums to vascilate a bit w/o seeing a repeat of yesterdays non event. And FWIW, it looks cold enough to keep it around through next Wed. at least. Thats a win as well.

already looked and its decent, but best forcing is BWIish this is "our" panel....lol

GFS holds the line from early am runs but 540 came north. Still a forum pleaser verbatim, but still think LSV is gonna taint for a bit. At 54 700's/850's came notably north, but then collapse after LP moves NE. Little less CAD IMO. Dunno how I feel about LSV yet. Good rates should help a marginal thermal profile down here.

axis of best accums seems to tick SE as well. Blizz should approve.

nooner NAM coming in stronger w/ cold and more south w/ front end snow. Good sign so far.

Even as pattern looks to break, its not a flip to spring but more see saw back no forth. Verbatim GFS shows a backdoor into march w/ cold here in the east w/ primary flow from a northerlyish kinda direction. IMO winter continues after a couple breaks. Looking at ens guidance GFS Ens have some disagreement, but adding Euro into it, I see no real warmups and normalish kinda temps. After St pattys, I start to care less, so it looks like as of today, we have a shot at normal backend. AO/NAO heading back down after recent spike and possibly going slightly neg. could bode well as wavelengths start to shorten as we approach the end of winter. Could be some more fun n trix in the bag.

yep yep, but looking at source region, we are cold enough to support frozen. I was just adding to your comment as to why we can snow in that setup. I'd not put much weight on it until after Thurs. to see what we have left for cold.

its all about the thermals....lol. Looks like a messed up clipper. 700s plenty cold and 850s decent w/ wind primarily out of the W upstairs lets column stay cold enough.

Boy thats notably different. I dont pay much attention to pivotal because of ease of use w/ TT....and as suggested last week, I only look at clown maps for frozen vs non frozen and trends in qpf placements for said frozen. It's merely a tool for me....not a forecast whatsoever. Oh and I get the freebie Euro from it as well.

Do pivotal NAM's fare better wrt frozen pricip? I thought it was a NAM algorithm flaw, not a TT one...or maybe both? I know Kuchera is the safter way to go.

Guess you saw this clown map as well....hehe. I'm getttin tugged back in as there is some wiggle room and the SE progression seems to be legit as we are getting closer to this. Probably a good thing that its close on the heels of last nights "event", as the antecedent cold coupled with an HP that is decent and well placed, is likely the savior to this storm for our locals.

Hey....thats a good point.....lol

So shift that 50 miles north and u see what LSV gets. Jipped.

Yeah I also noticed a chunk taken outta da pack today. Argh

Go back and look at the maps that I posted this morning. There was plenty of room and ridging out ahead for this to trend poorly. That’s exactly what I was worried about. Whether it’s a b or an a doesn’t matter if trough axis lets s/w flow out ahead screw our precious thermals. To many rain is rain no matter how we achieve it. Hp needs to hold for cad to save the day.

This is what I'm getting at w/ all of the chattin up Thursday, when merely 24 hours ago you looked like 6-9 up there, and now I'd wager 1-3 or 2-4 at best. Upper air pattern for Thursday has similarities to todays event, so I'd be cautious at "throwing this one away in search of the next" kind of mentality. Yes, next one does appear like a single system that doesnt cut or transfer, so it should be a "cleaner" event to follow....but it too will not be without further adjustments to what we see today vs where it ends up.

Now that how to talk dirty. south and east at 72 is the new sexy for the LSV to get snow.

If that bullseye were 50 miles south, I'd be way more enthused..... But I sure am interested

and to get that thumpage in marginal thermal profiles....we need best lift/forcing. Verbatim (my new favorite word), we dont have that down here. I80 does and only briefly. Sorry guys. I'm not wanting to poo poo. I want a good snow/sleet event as much as ya'll do.

I see what you did there..... not funny.....but true. lol

lols.. you can have it bud. As much as i want and love snow, I'm a realist to the core, and that's how I roll.

and 540 line running right along I80 at same timestamp w/ a steady SW wind. Ice ICE baby. sleet n zr at 24-25 deg. BTW this is the "money" panel that shows your front end lovin. Its beyond a razors edge IMO. I'm not here to argue, so dont think I am. We normally sit on same side of the snow fence, but think we need to temper expectations. Thats all.