pasnownut

Thats a really nice and reasonable snapshot of what we should expect (with a few surprises thrown in). As suggested yesterday and by Mag earlier, it look like the precip panels are filling in a bit to reflect the eastery fetch that often is not picked up until we near go time. Hoping the goalposts dont move much today and even if they do move, most in this forum are staring down the barrel of a loaded snow gun. My bar has been 6-10 since Wed. and I'm sticking to it....anything more is just fantastic (although I know the upside could be 3-6" higher based on overnights. Great convos in here the last few days. Let's bring this one home gang. Looking forward to todays runs, and the excitement that comes w/ biggies like this.

brings a tear to my eyes. Thx for sharing.

I’ll take it no matter what it ends up being. That’s a shitpile of sumthin. should start seeing banding show up more tomorrow especially with the potential stall.

Holy shnikeys!! We’re in da friggin bullseye. And you get to play in it for once. hope you don’t have any showings Monday. or tuesday and maybe Wednesday

He’s prob “keepin an eye on it”.

Wow. That’s starting to look like yesterday’s big numbers. Perty

Lol. While I’m obviously wishin this one in....I’m actually believing the stuff I feel and just hope my stance holds merit. We’re not there yet, but obviously going in the right direction. now back to a slope side beer before my old ass gets back on the slopes with my kid.

Looks like some of yesterday’s runs. thx fir makn happy hour happier guys.

Best bust of our lifetimes. Up skiing with my daughter at blue mtn. Can’t wait for real snow.

You know what they say about things being funniest the first time?? Good grief.

and if your confluence concern eases a tad bit more, that hole might fill w/ more fluffy stuff. Even most souther solutions still correct north a bit before go time. That in itself might bring forum back to life.

lol was just getting ready to post same images. 2 more ticks and I'm on souther side of said storm...

It tucked a bit better than wobled east a bit (togglin from 6z). I'd say bleeding stopped for now....just not sure if were headed back to the promise land yet but still almost 2 days of coaster ride till we really know. Holds chips.

My breakfast of late as i watch sugar as well. You can try the piss part. Let us know how you like it. lol

I bet it will to some degree. Beer bet??

supposed to, but was held up due to some tweaks that were needed.

Yep, and seeing the latest and "greatest" para, explains what I'm getting at. Like suggested by some yesterday, a compromise between camps is not a bad hunch to work off of, as we've seen all majors struggle of late. That's not me wishing, that's just my trying to understand the disparities we are seeing inside of 48 hrs till go time.

dude, all good and why we are here. Point/counterpoint is how we learn and what makes this sport fun. No need to explain....I'm not easily offended. I totally get your point. I'm just doing the same from a different lens. If I'm wrong, I'll eat crow the same way I last did. Eat the feathers and throw the meat.

and why we cannot discount norther solutions. Base state is changing. I'd bet the most house money on the model that handles thermal profiles the best and see where it sends the storm.

So he's basically as divided/unsure as we are..... awesome!!

Ok....I'll play.......... On monday you had a storm that was knee deep in the shred factory that ended up having taint all the way to the NY border (potter tioga had sleet). It was NOT modeled to do so. 3 days later you have a storm that was slated to hammer us a week earlier, end up in central NC (spoke to a client 40 min south of Apex NC and she had 2" snow yesterday). That was all during our shutout shredder NAO pattern. Point I'm making is that while this pattern has been stable, systems can and will attack and cannot just assume they'll adjust south. This one has a 1002mb lp trying to cut and will do its best, BUT while the air is deep and cold enough to force under and redevelops off coast the NAO is lifting out giving the coastal pop @ OBX a chance to come north and do a loopdyloop because of it. Several nooners ticked back W with MSLP. If they all started to go east, I'd be buyin what you and trainer are selling. Still enough uncertainty exists to not discount, tucked/more northerly adjustments as we approach go time. Just my .02.

Yep Geography = friction

I'm not sure where that's coming from? The NAO is starting to relax and YES, we had a shred factory over the last couple weeks (and still do), BUT what you are forgetting, is that the shredder is running outta gas this weekend, and the upcoming event just has a nice antecedent airmass to work with, and its deep enough to keep most out of worry for taint, but is not the big bully it once was which gives this storm a chance to lift and not suppress. Point is, you cant just say "atmospheric memory" when the base state is changing. It's been said many times....gotta pay attention to 500's/700's and not just surface. EDIT - and fwiw, I'm not saying in the end that you arent correct, but you cant just look at this storm the same way we've been for the last several weeks.

Im gonna say that the 12z Nam was an improvement. Tightened up a bit, but I can see room for it to go boom..a bit

and that coupled w/ typical miller B screwjobs, is why I dislike them, and why I've set 6-10 as my goal, as the path to victory is often a convoluted mess. Just not clean n easy