pasnownut

Normal ebbs and flows of model watchin. A little S and then a little N finds the southern tier lookin at an appreciable event...no matter the subtleties of our backyards. Still think up to I 80 and S see snow, unless some big shift comes in the next 24 hrs, which is not likely IMO.

good enough for now. See you tonight, or maybe HH

CMC is similar to GFS and qpf distribution . Snowmaps a touch better and gets 6" up to voyager

as i look at snowmaps for the funner qpf distribution, youll notice a nice bump N into true central. Thats a great thing. rt 30 and S has warning level and advisory level getting closer to I80

cold press at 102 is what might limit Nwd expansion, but can also help to squeeze the lucky ones isothermally.

looking at 500's and 700's not sure how much further north this can come, so keep an eye on that for those livin on the edge.

verbatim based on SLP track and thermals, this is really a nice evolution, and believable as it fits the pattern.

of course, but now you have the GFS sayin..... hold my beer

102 also transfers in N Va. good spot for us, as dry slot would be muted up here.

102 has snow up to NY border. Crowd pleaser fo sho

Trend continues at 96.

SLP at 90 a smidge N of 6z qpf field similar thermals a tad N (which should allow a better adjustment N in next couple panels. I80 and S may approve

yep. Looking a touch N of 6z. Money panels incoming

at 72, nooner GFS is a tick N of 6z wrt thermal boundaries and SLP good start, how will it finish....

absolutely. Regardless of how these next couple weeks work out, legit tracking has commenced and is most welcomed by many. Nice to see a couple of chances looming.

I'd think many/most would take the 12z evolution in a heartbeat. I know I would. Nice to see most bigguns coming around to more norther options. Not sure I'd call it a consensus yet, but its starting to look like one is forming, and the souther whiff appears a bit less likely.

But is it a good model......??? Well for today it sure is...

qpf ticked south tho. You know trends are what we need to watch for now....not perty (or not so) snow maps. Just one run, and CMC came north so I say no blood.

Sure can. IMO biggest takeaway is we are getting into a new pattern, and one we've not seen in a while. Might have to dust the books off as to how things can and do evolve w/ setups like this. We've grown so accustomed to shoehornin our way into snows, antecedent cold blah blah blah. Now we've got cold where we want it and just need to see where the vort pops and start looking at 500/700 maps to see where this puppy goes.

Yeah not a bad set of moves. As cold is often over modelled, it wouldnt surprise if we see a further adjustment north...... or is that the weenie in me coming out? Happy New Years to all.

cold press is legit and once established, you need to look at trough axis w/ each vort. Suppressed is surely an option, but when 3 op runs give 3 notably different solutions as to where the letter L is on said run, that means alot, and we just need time to see where the boundary sets up and go from there. Fortunately there are notable diff's from each model, so that tells us this is far from decided. Happy to see the reshuffle now being reshuffled to a funnr pattern. Happy and healthy New Years to all.

Great stuff as always Mag. Thanks for sharing. Looking forward to keeping an eye on this period.

yeah looks like all systems go and that 2025 may get us off to a good start. Op runs still doing their bouncin around a bit, but should lock in over next couple days and pattern stabilizes...me thinks. Low amp 8/1/2 while a muted signal, sure doesnt hurt with other tellies looking pretty perty.

Great weekend at cabin. Arrived Friday to 6” of snow to plow. Low key chill weekend. Left today at 840 am with 4” still otg and 37 deg. Once to wspt we hit the 40’s. saw about 2 min of sun here at home but it’s warm. Don’t worry blizz, hoping you won’t be alone on the limb soon enough. Looking forward to seeing how this evolves vs how modeled. Looks perty so far.

Amended for my rendition of perfect Christmas weather.