pasnownut

Much the same in Akron. We had one crack so loud n so close, i looked between my wife and I to see if it hit between us . I levitated a good 12" from it. LOLs. Hope ya'll r enjoying spring.

verbatim 18z gfs shows one helluva cutoff aoa easter. Not sure I'm buyin, but man thats a BIG backdoor as NE would freeze while rest of country is above norm. We've seen it before, so I'm not saying its not likely, but its a doozy....if it verifies (which I'm suspect based on how far S the anomalous cold penetrates). If you loop it you see it just "drop in" from land of the cannooks and blows up. Just not sure how that happens...Dunno.

all good. Keep trackin. Truth is they typically dont diverge that much, so I made an assumption...but in seeing that divergence, it gives me even more reason to "worry" about this even happening. I typically us 12k and only 3k for continuity, until we close in tight....then I shift focus. Go get it man. I'm rootin for ya

lol you got me. I looked at 12k which was meh beyond and assumed 3k was a bust. I guess we have a shot. but we take what we can get in mid march.

If the look holds, I MAY get up to see the last flakes of the season (although verbatim, I'd need to drive into the office to do so as I'm about 10 - 15 miles east of the r/s line Edit - just peeked at meso's n NAM isnt feelin it. "best" snow panel I could find. Weenie cancel.

Glad you came back bud. Looking forward to next autumn and first talks of cold/snow (hopefully).

Looking at Ens guidance says that once beyond the weekend and into next week....its curtains for us winter folk. I see occasional SER and zonal which means normal to above and 2m temp anomalies have no blues where we want them for spring snows. I'll be checkin in on occasion, but will likely will be checkin out as my to do list is rather large this year. Lots of big projects to keep my focus. It was a great winter despite the quiet ending. Thanks for the good convo boys n girls.

First flakes at Manheim exit of 283 and by the time I got to office I was getting a bit excited as it was picking up to where i almost reported -SN, but as quickly as it started...it went away. Oh well.

Flurries here in Etown. Couple lonely parachutes mixed in too.

We had one a few miles from my house yesterday. Didnt think it'd dry up this fast. Hoping tomorrow and Friday get the ground moist again. That wind really dries it quick. Get some rest dude.

All good pal...once from LSV, always from LSV. You...and others are always most welcome. We may be a small group, but I'd dare say a pretty damn cool group. Nice to see loosetoe and the KPIT crew chimin in here as well. May be headed down to your ol' stompin grounds in the next couple weeks (off River Rd). And furthermore, I/many are all about chattin up weather, and when others come here to chime in....i think its great and would NEVER tell anyone to "get out of OUR forum"...unless they are being an asshat and not goin w/ the flow of the convo....Good convo is what makes this thingy work, otherwise, it's just plain childish and a board killer.... Too bad the MA clowns that are guilty as charged can't see that.

Was splitting firewood in shorts n t shirt last evening...still sweated a bit. WAAAYYY tooo early for that crap but I know its coming. Not sure what I missed in the MA trash talk forum, but dont really miss that place one bit. It was a means to an end for me. We've added a few here this year and the convo has been just fine w/ me. I dont need or miss the pissin and moaning one bit. They are a snarky click down there (save then normal good ones - and if any of them are reading this....kudos for keeping it real).

based on track/evolution, that's where I'd put my money....including Wspt and points ENE.

You said nearly the same at 6z.... sounds like your theme may be looking like a trend. Was just at a clients.....I hate it already. #sweatin

and if you loop op back a few runs, the word yoyo comes to mind. Not trying to debbie, but just being real as it really does take a lot more things to go right as we look to close the books on Winter 20-21.

Let me help you......don'l look....unless you like WAR and warmth... thats not even zonal....thats MORCH like weather. Mind you speaking verbatim as we are WAAYYYYY beyond range of consideration, but 12z Op was not one to hang hope onto IMO and beyond next weekend really is not in agreement w/ Ens guidance 6z 12z

As bubbles just said in another post, momma nature doesnt have to follow the meteo 101 rules of engagement in the weather war we wage in winter. If one looks at the 500 map I posted, and add to it the factor that the AO is now in a naturally retreating state, we need extra help from AO/NAO forcing to "get the boundary right" in that flow pattern in March. Scroll through the rest of the loop and verbatim....its curtains for winter 2021 IMO. Zonal/pac air as far as the eye can see. We need to see some semblance of blocking start to show quickly, as our normal window is closing. Thats all i'm pointing out, is that its no longer January (when its easier to snow).

Yes, it sure is, but this flow doesnt ooz cutoff. That's all I'm sayin. You could launch a glider in N Cali, and itd land in Cashtowns back yard.

Tellies suggest the window is open, but Ens guidance does not agree w/ Op so proceed w/ caution. After next weeks warmup, a rather zonal pattern looks to be en route. Sorta wierd to see how flat the 500 flow is on Ens guidance post 2/14. I agree w/ loosetoe that March and shortening wavelengths are 2 great ingredients for humdingers to pop. That flow verbatim is a dud.

That'd be a great end to a really good winter IMO. I'd be just fine w/ that. Let it stick around a couple days and I'm good.

After next weeks warmup, there does seem to be a decent window for something to pop. Green beer w/ a white/frosty topping on it. This is a decent look from way out there. Only 47 runs away from verifying.....hehe

lol..i/we have a bush off of my back porch that has seen a lot of one eyed worms.... Its the "go to" spot when friends are over....lol

thats a fabulous winter IMO. One I dream of. Get a biggy and then just keep it fresh for a couple months....perfect.

Nice. I like snow up until st. pattys day, then I worry a lot less about it, as the window is really closing, but like others have stated, I'll always take a doozy whenever it's possible. The ridging on the maps from next week is rather stout, and will likely over perform IMO, and I'll just enjoy the first spring warmth and see where we go beyond d10.