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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    part 3 looks rather tasty on Z German house model. Coming back to the weekend coastal dealeo....
  2. pasnownut
    Fwiw..ICON just went south for part 2.....oh boy. IMO less interaction w/ NS energy made it just slide right
  3. pasnownut
    I think you'll be just fine for the next show.
  4. pasnownut
    It sure looked that way several days ago. If one looks at all models for consensus, ICON GFS and CMC have shown that for a while. Meso's for part 1 look better because they are at closer range....part 2 still coming into focus, and likely to adjust north in next 24 hours. And for those that say "yeah but it still doesnt show snow IMBY", you have to think incrementally when parsing over runs...and think about model bias, logical corrections and timeframe left for said corrections.
  5. pasnownut
    Nooner NAM's for next gig rd1 looking better and rd2 looking like its a bit north of 6z. Plenty of time to get it back to CTP.
  6. pasnownut
    "tick time" has commenced. 6z 12z
  7. pasnownut
    Yeah looks good for them. Glad Ahoff or whatever his name is is getting some. Probably why hes not on here b!tchin about not getting any snow. He's quietly hoggin right now. lol
  8. pasnownut
    Nothing here in Akron. (Didn’t expect much if any so no biggie) next.......
  9. pasnownut
    Peeps need to remember that cold of late is often over modeled, and with that in mind there is usually a typical correction north wrt storm trajectories. It’s been a seasonal tendency for a while now. I dont “fret” over any cold that shows on the models. I just want it to show which means it’s going to be around.
  10. pasnownut
    ........Except for tomorrow’s event that just “ticked” north on most mesos.
  11. pasnownut
    Ya can’t shovel potential but that’s a shit ton of it verbatim. Now if we can even get 50% of it it would be a great period.
  12. pasnownut
    Enjoy for a few hours.
  13. pasnownut
    They’d be crowd pleasers for sure.
  14. pasnownut
    and fwiw, I dont really know how threats 2 and 3 work out, but fun to look at (for 1 model run anyway). Takeaway is that opps a plenty en route...
  15. pasnownut
    and if thats not enough....look at the incoming bomb for Sunday. That one looks to bury us (as modeled.) Wowzers.
  16. pasnownut
    yeah 12z's arent helping the LSV for tomrrow. We'll cheer on our CTP brethren and wait for thursday. More wiggle room IMO for that one to adjust north and put us in the goods.
  17. pasnownut
    Meso's say we can smell it tomorrow, gonna b close. Still enough time for subtle shifts in a good or bad direction. I mean the difference in 20 miles is the difference between 0-4" verbatim. lol
  18. pasnownut
    Thinking the LSV may be on sideline for tomorrows deal. Hoping we get the goods on Thursday though. Looking good for lower 1/2 of Pa for that one.
  19. pasnownut
    Nooners continue the NW adjustments (albeit minor) and squarely have LSV in play. As suggested, still enough time to get next layer NW into accumulating snows for Super Sunday. Not sure if there is enough time for much more adjustments but I'd guess advisory event becoming more likely down here.
  20. pasnownut
    Not for many in our forum, as this one brings a bunch into something. You should get your chances in the next couple weeks as the boundary seems to move around a bit.
  21. pasnownut
    My goalposts due to being rather progressive, and a 6-8 hr event was 3-5" in MBY as decent qpf is being modeled down here. From Altoona to Poconos would be western periphery IMO. Pos tilt wont let this one come much further N/NW imo. Just running outta time, but hey I'd be glad to see further adjustments in favor or CTP.
  22. pasnownut
    thats how we in the LSV turn the - into the + as sleet is a pack densifier for retention purposes.....hehe
  23. pasnownut
    short term model runs/radar matched up pretty well IMO.
  24. pasnownut
    I think that disclaimer may be a safe assumption for a long time coming. Wonder how long its been since we've had a stall like that? I cant remember any in my lifetime.
  25. pasnownut
    awesome. we only got about 1/2" in Akron, but it was pretty to wake up to seeing loamy parachutes fallin. Sunday looking a little better for eastern locals as boundary is once again correcting north as we near short term (was my hunch a couple days ago) If that doesnt hit, something should in the next couple of weeks. Plenty of opps to follow. Love it.
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