pasnownut

Hoping Hump day delivers smiles to many faces for many reasons. Here may be one of em' as hi res models start to do their thingy. 0z 12z

You nailed it. S and SW events seem to be a little easier for that to happen. Thats one of the reasons I like A's over B's as that variable is negated greatly down here in the LSV. theres nothing worse than looking at a big blue blob headed our way from the W and Mag, then Bubbles, then Cashtown all are covered in puffy parachutes.....only to watch it go POOF as it gets to Anotherman, and then were left w/ enough flakes to count w/o taking shoes off.

agreed. We've both seen it enough. Based on geography alone, we really struggle in Lanco for any W or NW to E oriented events really are tough down here SE of the mtns.

I wanna believe, but feel this is overdone. As you know we often juice up only to dry out a bit once we approach go time. That said, it brings many of us back into something which is a win in my book. Laurels and S Central look to be prime spots for the next week.

Look at that damn snow hole in lanco again. Its like Voyager shoved his snow dome due S 60 miles over my casa. WTF!! Problem i have w/ it is that the last storm modeled a hole over my house....and the damn thing verified. UUGGGGHHHHHHH.

lol yeah, any that do this w/ regularity should know that one should not trust NAM'ins that look great on screen. I use/show for frozen potential and consensus for qpf distribution and whos getting sumthin and who isnt. Looks like overnights continued to tick north and lower 1/3 of state is in the game. Works for me as i never expected much for rd1 but now have to put more weight on it as rd2 is S of MD special. I'm just gonna dig multiple events comin at us in the next 7-10 days. Edit, and now that i've caught up in full...looks like my mind is in the right place after reading your assessments. Enjoy the show. Your in a great spot to do so.

18z 0z Still time for some of us IMO

Blizzard go look at NAM. Looking north and more robust qpf wise early on.

I’d b giddy with a 3-5” refresher.

First part is painful truth. For those that follow tellies/base state, we are kickin beyond coverage for what shoulda/coulda been a ratter. But for that second part, most of those snows didnt go poof....they went north or east...and thats the truth. lol

Agreed, and some of them are sitting in the catbird seat for snow....you know... the snow they were not getting 3 days before they got it. Yeah....that snow. It boggles the mind....well my tiny one anyway.

I'll put what i think is a "fun" battle out there as 2 camps seem formed on our board. Camp 1 - seems to think too much cold is bad and leads t suppression depression. Camp 2 - says how much of that modeled cold has come to light in the last few years? To further the point/debate, I'd love to see stats on % of storms that came north inside of 48 to 72 vs how many ended up south inside same time frame? Thats what I/some have been driving at. I'd wager wmspt's money (since hes got the most snow chips right now) that 75% or more came N and not S in said timeframe.

"It looks like it's headed west for sure - fun to track if it happens." Hence my confused emoji, but I totally agree on the way too early part...... hence my 300 mile move in 1 run post. NOONE knows whether this cuts for Chicago, or Columbia SC. 500's inspire little confidence (looking at GFS vs EURO. but I'd say that ENS guidance looks more suppressed for GEPS/GEFS vs ridgy on EPS.

Preach it man....preach it..

Its doing better than the GFS's 1 run jump. That gorilla at 168 ONLY moved 300 miles from 75 miles S of LA coastline to central GA...... It's a lock.

FWIW, GFS says the sunday deal just came a lot closer to looking like a decent event forum wide (verbatim I taint, but thats par for my decent snowstorm course-lol.)

Nice. Congrats. Hope you like snow enough to brighten your spirits.

Yeah I got excited when I saw some of the posts about this little tongue of moisture....but it went poof right over my head i guess...

CMC ticked N for rd1 and just looks a bit less robust for rd2, but beyond that it is just like being in a batting cage w/ snowballs in da machine. We've got many chances at fun no matter how they stack up. That's the BIG win for me. I never expected to land all of the digital snow we see on models. i just want chances....and that we have.

all done here. I counted like 7 pingers. hehe

We know. IMO its not about whos right and whos wrong (which sometimes seems that's whats going on in here). Except for a couple red taggers (who also are faced w/ the same challenges...but they get paid for it), we are all a bunch of weenies throwing our amateur opinions out there to discuss something we enjoy. Some of us try to back it up w/some logic....right or wrong. That's the fun of it (for me anyway). We all learn from one another, and that's the fun of the convo on a weather discussion board...notsomuch whos right and whos wrong. Of course its a possibility and its great to bring up any points to discuss because as amateurs....thats what we are here to do. I think he knows that. Beyond Thursday, nooners are spilt between N and S, so noone really knows whos right and whos wrong, but as I said earlier, you need to blend knowledge/tendencies/logic and not just look at a map and say...aint happnenin. Hope that makes sense and doesnt come off snooty, but some of us put time and effort into our reasoning cause thats the fun for many here.

couple pingers fallin In Etown.... AWESOME......lol Congrats to all the northers that "cashed in" today. Seein how a few days ago this was a southern Pa deal...thx for stealin our snow.

I think thats the best takeaway for right now. Lotsa chit in da chute.

yeah it moved LP about 500 miles in one run. lol You'd think w/ the "stable" arctic boundary that it'd be a bit easier for the models. next up (rd#1 to me) trended better, and I still think enough time for #2 to correct north some, and thats about as far as I'm comfy in thinking right now.

GFS says what part 2..........lol slides right, but you can add GFS to the mix for the weekend.