pasnownut

I know several teachers.....your assesment is spot on. Smart ones are fine...average/sub par.....notsomuch. I've spoken personally w/ them about your very concern.

I think its a blended approach, because ens/analogs are always helpful, but knowing climo surely IS critical.....your boy Horst for example. Only fly in the ointment is that no 2 systems are alike and base state/tellies only help to narrow goalposts. I think minor perturbations become more notable @40N because we often are ON the line or like i said earlier....ridin it. Go to 37N or 43N and outcomes are far more predictable from a %;s perspecitve. South assumes wet....north assumes white. Around here we fight it out. IMO mets in the N MA really earn their keep as nothing is clean and easy here.

See post above. I think its really just timing issues w/ so many vorts in the pipeline and the challenge of sorting out details of cause/effect between systems and what affect each has on the thermal boundary as we are on the edge of it so to speak. Thats my hunch anyway. IF we were deeper in, it'd be less guessing of what are we getting vs how much snow are we getting. Ridin the line baby....

Thats the biggest part of it IMO. The block being stable makes it a bit more "predictable - ie bellying under said block, but there is so much flying through the chute its really hard to know/see subtle details that make a big diff in BY forecasts. Timing is ultra critical with tight spacing as boundary is in constant flux from prior event or the next one in line.

and to further that, there are always a myriad of ways that we can fail in any given event, whether its climo/telies/model tendencies....blah blah blah.....so yeah lengthy discussions on every model run aren't really warranted, till we get into close range. Then we can nitpick finer details about winners and losers. . In the last few years it seems like we really haven't locked much in outside of 72 which has to be beyond challenging for red taggers.

You bring up a great point to be considered. For that clue we have to look upstairs at 500s to see whats going on, and from my view, it comes at a time of relaxation so to speak. If you look at said 500 panels, there's plenty of ridging to bring it up. IMO we need that 1035hp to keep showing up to keep this thing cold enough w/ good CAD, or we could be in trouble. Remember we are only knee deep in cold....not waist deep. I think that HP showing up was the path to victory. JM $.02.

CMC says the hits keep on coming. Lotsa chances. Some white some pingers n zr but every couple days. Winter continues. Love it.

Trade in for back brace and heart monitor. lol.

and I was wrong....It's my favorite letter...clean A. Stays under w/ no transfer. Typical LSV taint, but a beaut for many.

GFS trolling the hell outta us at 114....and its stuck. Me thinks its gonna be a crowd pleaser miller B with 1035hp nicely parked in Quebec.

wiggle room....lol

Germans showin love to the forum for next Tuesday. Bellied under and nice transfer....all snow. as we are looking for consensus, i think we now have ICON Euro and GFS all in similar camps (staying under us - no cutter). Hoping that theme continues to gain traction....

Ask and ye shall receive.

BTW, everyone in the southern tier should go look at the 6z GooFuS snow maps through end of run for purely entertainment purposes. I'd post, but I don't want anyone to think less of me than they already do.

ICON is a skating rink down here in LSV for Sat event. Shows rain, but 2m temps in mid 20's throughout event. verbatim....we skate. Snow wise, its a bubbles to Voyager special IMO.

I always do and it usually verifies pretty well. Hard part is the deliniation between frozen varieties but like I said earlier, as long as i dont have green above me.....I'm ok w/ whatever

yeah i saw that. Scratchin my head a bit as i though the shredder was runnin outta gas. Might set up Tuesdays potential a bit better..?? Dunno

nah, more like good at some things....just like any other model. If there's one we should trust more this year, I wouldnt know which one it is.

seeing that pawatch got 1.5" is a win as well so the north bump was legit....just not the lofty totals that we saw. Stored in memory bank for further use.

uh oh....Ahoff is lurking again...... he's in here looking to steal more of our forums snow........ J/K hope you did well yesterday.

NAM's get a lot of trashing, but like you I think they are a good to use as well. They tend to overdue qpf as we all know, but seem to do well w/ thermals and where the qpf is going to fall. edit - and they suck at what kinda frozen one is getting. For me....all I care about is pink/purple/blue.....hate green

with all that said.....bolded is all he really worries about.

Thats great to hear. As we've seen quite often, the extreme cutters of the past have seem to hit some resistance thanks to our Canadian friends. Belly under baby....belly under. At last look, tellies would support more souther solutions for next week. Gonna have to see where things are headed beyond that.

Looking at that map.....NO thanks!! Sheesh thats alot of ice.

Bet on 11