pasnownut

As I've been casually watching the evolution, that's been in the back of my mind (and some others as well). Trough axis is an important feature along with the cold. Of late, and IMO its been a tad east on the medium range looks, and lacking latitude in the east. I dare say a tad of WAR could help, but thats a dangerous wish to ask for. Soon enough wavelenghts will start to change as spring emerges, and if we could hold this look for a while, who knows....but thats getting pretty far ahead of what lies in front of us. Really just shows how difficult it can be to get a really GOOD look pattern wise. So so many ways to just miss. Not that we didnt know that, but it's its so true.

As we enter the better period, gonna watch the trough axis and hope that we get just enough bend for them to come up and not slide right. Stoudt NAO could be too much of a good thing. Just something I'm keepin an eye on.

FWIW, I'm finally starting to believe we are about to get into some fun, or at least trackin it. You've been all over it, and I hope we get the goods. Seeing overnight and morning GFS keeps hope alive and I give the GFS credit for medium range as its sniffed out a few that have verified at some degree or another, so I'm dipping my toes back into the weather water as it looks like after this week, we may be having some chances. Just hoping we don't go straight to suppression depression, as while we have a longwave trought getting established, the southern slider idea has some merit in the things to worry about dept. ENS guidance as you suggest, appears to keep cold closer to us and looks to be rather stable. I'll take that as a win, as we've not seen a pattern "lock in", and for now the latter 1/2 of ens guidance shows this.

Yeah there's snow in the north country, but not much. For those that enjoy it, no matter how much, a couple hour drive would get you some. I was going to take sleds up for a rip around on top, but I'm old enough to not feel pressed to go in less than ideal conditions. Hopefully in 2 weeks there will be better conditions. Thankful I have the harley and sxs for my motor fix(s).

Thanks for the "backyard stats".... Chesco. Just ignore both of them.

Hope your vacation was a good one. Nice to see you back. I'm just going to say that if I didn't look at weather maps to the degree that I do, I'd say that its been a HELL of a lot better than last year. While I love the big dogs, the realist in me is happy for what we've had in the last 2 weeks, and it feels normal"ish" around here. Northern Pa has been MUCH better than last year. I'm ok w/ where we are so far and like you hope Feb delivers. and this is my glass half full stance, and I do realize places like Tug and NE states are struggling a bit. Overall...still better than last year.

Been snowing up there for the last couple hours. No mucho on the cams, but it is snowing. Check out http://skisawmill.com/webcam/ for live stream. If we get 3-6 up there, I'd be giddy. Me thinks 1-2 w/ 3" lollipops. Hoping the colder looks on Ops hold for this week and that we can luck into something. Snowmobiles are just sitting in my sloppy backyard right now....once again waiting. Heck, Tug still has rideable snow, but looks sad right now. May be headed up there soon if we dont get the good at cabin.

perfect snowpack decimation weather. At least it lasted till mid week as we thought it would. Boy did it go fast starting Wed night.

IF we had a decent antecedent cold, I'd be latchin onto the snow train.....but we don't. Miller B's w/ warm out ahead, just dont work well around here. No matter what the models show leading up, we WONT have it. Said it yesterday and I'm holding onto it. Elevation event is where the snow will be best. Somerset to Hazleton and surrounding locals in CTP and North country as well. What I am happy to see, is next weeks colder looks here in NE and as others have suggested, maybe we can get clipped or coastal next weekend. Happy Friday all.

Nooner GooFuS livin up to its name. Not sure that I've ever seen an alberta clipper go due SE....right off the right side of the map. and furthermore the 500's beyond that are part of the wonky evolutions I mentioned a few days back. a few days later a cutter to Nebraska that retros to Southern Colorado. Just not somethin we se often/ever.

snow map while decent for some, should be viewed w/ huge grain of salt nearby. IMO elevation within the "bullseye" would be favored to get what its showin. as always when I go warm, I want to be proven wrong in the worst way....so have at it.

nooner NAM looks more believable thermally, and is elevation event. SLP a smidge stronger and easter fetch cooks the snow goose.

lol. That IS foul.... Been through that plant many moons ago. Wanted to burn my clothing when I got home.

IF one believes....yeah, it did look good, but as i've always suggested, its gotta fit the pattern, and to me...I smell something foul..

Thats what makes more sense based on pattern. I like to see the blocking, but its a tad north IMO. Thermally, this panel seals the casket for me. 12hrs later...still cookin

upcoming weekend event has been a wonky evolution (transfer wise). Once that gets sorted out a bit better, maybe some get luck and freshen up. While I'll concede to the transfer, blocking up north has me scratchin my noggin as to why this will happen as depicted. also thermally, 700's are okish, but 850's are really lagging for se 1/3 or state. I wanna buy what its selling, but I'll hold for now. FWIW 6z nam came around a bit and is notably SE of 0z. I'll keep watchin...got nothin better to do while its raining.

who you kiddin..... you'd drink to many things..........

guess i shoulda looked at this post before i posted my previous one. GFS/CMC favored northers, this one favors many. You just found your model to hug. Just peeked on pivotal and it looks like ULL dives in to save the day for us...thermally. Not sure why it slides SE at 96 as the HP up north is too far N to force it under, but hey....what do I know. We'll take it.

My yard was showing signs of caving....to the grass, but like yours was still holding up where it wasnt thin. Tonight will be a snow eater. I've seen snow otg for about a week, so its a win for me no matter. Hoping we are trackin again soon. This weekend is a sneaky surprise for the northers (as currently modeled, but would be backend loving for the lucky ones), as cold has been scoured and is gone leading up to the Sunday potential and with a cutter/redeveloper, I fear cold is too late to do much cept for elevation folks, but I've been wrong before.

Thats a decent look right there.

many 384hr 500 maps come to mind.... Nice well placed PNA ridge in the west west based NAO or neg AO active STJ across the south. I can draw but I hope that works for your visual needs

and for any wondering what "wonky ass looks" definition is. See below. F'd up omega block is also one that comes to mind.

We've actually had a couple decent looks so far this season that had the 3 in play, just off on timing. With the active STJ, all we need is for the wonky ass 500 looks to settle down, get the PNA back to + and then maybe....just maybe.

i got a 1/2 hog last year. First time i've ever gotten custom meat. I will do that again. lotsa good eats. Oh and we'll start a gofundme for the cash. Much easier gift to get (than triple phaser).