pasnownut

Been doing plumbing and chores all day, but while concerned about the souther shift of late, we often see this, and with this current setup, norther adjustments arent bunk imo. Add to that the typical cool bias we sometimes see, I feel it offers this vort a chance to correct/jump north a bit...somewhat like the HH Nam'r just did. Is it correct, not sure, but like all of us weenies, I have my methods and theories as to how things often roll here and just use my 3 decades of weenie watching to base my assumptions on. Gun to head....we may have another tick or 2 N until we get inside of 24, then a tick back S and then it's go time. Headed out to dinner shortly, and am sorta casually watching, but I still think lowest tier counties are 3-6 w/ 8" lollies especially in somerset/laurels where a 10 spot may happen. As stated the other day, IF we can keep the miller b option delayed, or denied, I feel pretty good abt it. NAM @ 48, the 500's/700s dont show me why it gets sheared and heads SE and makes me scratch my skull a bit. Every panel SLP holds together, is a couple extra hours of beautiful blue over us. Mind you I'm just lookin at HH NAM maps. I may dive deeper later or tomorrow morning. Happy weekend gang.

That will tug em all right back in. I know it did me. for 6 hrs more anyway. We've suffered this long....lets ride or die.

Guess they didnt look at or consider the HH Nam. I like it.....alot

Glad to see the pros like to use ensemble guidance. They've been bashed a plenty by some.

Sure hope so.

HH RGEM ticks N and keeps us watching. Good to see some tickin N. Hope we’re not done yet.

Solid 1” here in Akron. Pretty much done now. Appetizer is good. Waiting for main course sun/mon.

This is ground truth.

ok, I'm out. Have fun yall. c u later

one takeaway, is that CMC goes w/ the idea i shared earlier, and holds onto primary all the way to coast. Thats a + but now we need the cold press to slow the souther progression. Thats wishcasting though so the jury can strike that comment from the record.

at 72, SLP and precip notably S. shall i stop now....lol

at 66, SLP smide SE, qpf smidge NE.... wtf

thru 60 CMC SLP and qpf field tick N of 0z

summary of GFS is....keep hope alive till next model says otherwise.

78 qpf bumped north. southers approve. I 80'rs hold breath till HH

at 78, primary holding on while it jumped at 6z. we'll take that.

at 72, slp west of 6z by 75 miles ish. not horrible...yet

at 66 SLP slightly NW of 6z

Nooner GFS early on...precip field coming a bit south of 6z. It's ELLIOTS fault.

One thing to remember, we want to root the primary on for as long as it can, as thats the key to avoiding dryslot when primary transfers. Some early morning runs show this and hopefully confluence lessens a bit as this would likely further aid in primary holding together longer. Something I'm watching for anyway. edit...and as i look at nooner ICON, it says screw your idea pal.

RGEM snow map moves N approx 50-*75 miles fwiw.

GREM thru 77 holds onto primary longer. I 80 and south crew approves of this.

FWIW RGEM coming in a tick N of 6z thru 65/ Precip shield slightly N as well. Subtleties mean everything to those on the edge, so I'm hoping the edge moves north today.

Mine started first pull. Oil so slightly used in last 3-5 yrs, I just topped off and am ready to go.

Feel better pal.