pasnownut

EPS vs OP....Please say EPS is SE..... Please Edit...just looked and EPS is slightly W of Op for late week. Still time, and today reeled me back in a bit. I'll sacrifice Tuedsay for a refresher Thursday...I'm easy like that

Dont think Im not happy for what we've snuck in so far...not my point. I'm looking at maps for the upcoming week (especially Thurs) ala GFS and that is what my frustration is. Still enough time for changes...good or bad

Yeah reality is that we win some we lose some and your bolded statement is very true. I'm not giving up, but just not getting why what normally looks like a perfect setup, still ends up so far north like 80+ % of the time (I said 75 the other day being conservative). Has to be the NAO heading pos. that is lifting the boundary north. Hey CMC looked like 5% better for Thursday....lol

Its just beyond frustrating how the new default pattern is one that cuts west. You'd think the warm waters off the east coast would be a magnet for storms, but instead they prefer Chicago. Personally I'm really struggling w/ this "new norm" and am trying to look for why this seems to be the case. When I saw the runs over the past few days I was rather certain that even w/ the loss of the NAO the antecedent cold coupled w/ the pretty well placed HP, that this would look better on screen and CAD would win the day. Another learning lesson for me.

0zs not lookin good for Tuesday so far so I went and looked at tellies as I had some time to dig a bit. AO spike and NAO to +1 ish and IMO look to be the likely reason for storm track heading west for this week as a result. That said they look like they may head twds neutral starting later this week so I’m hoping prime climo can help us as we get beyond this spike. I now fear this week may trend worse instead of better and not sure things can stay under us. Sure hope I’m wrong but we know how hard it been without the NAO and we’re losing it. Hope he comes back soon. Boo

Oh I think yours is coming. No NWS alert needed and I still switch with you. You guys have been doing pretty well up there eh??

I guess they think the ridging out ahead pushes the boundary. Tomorrows high here is 34. Just a hunch but I really dont see how it lifts that far N, but I guess they know something I dont....LOL's.

Not at all....but I envy the convo and input that many share down there....right or wrong....Its what I come here for, and nowhere better to do it than where Im not treated like an outcast. this is the best our boards been in a while. Givin props where its due.

Jns said it well earlier. With a stout HP to the north and no bombing LP w/ easterly fetch screwin our thermals, I think this on has a chance to go trainers way.....south and progressive with boundary somewhere in SEPA. EVERY model has tuesdays LP below MD line and far enough that the HP Cad feature (which we often know is late to show on models) ends up trending better for us. Just another hunch I'm goin w/. BTW, great convo in here while I was gone. Were starting to chat it up like the MA thread. Well done.

Don’t wanna agree but fear you are correct. Where the boundary goes after each event is the key to it all. Like mag suggested tho the warm nose looks to be small so let’s hope n pray that more sleet is what we get. Hate ZR.

By the crickets in here....i sense noone knows what da frigs gonna happen next week One can only laugh because as far as things have come....we still are left scratchin the noggin. I'll check back in tomorrow night. Heading to a client meeting and then takin the Mrs away for the evening and dont wanna get caught looking at weather porn...lols Somebody please tug these storms SE 100-150 miles.

Not sure how this isnt a miller B in the making w/ that stout HP holding on like it is but verbatim that 1006mb LP just beats the tar outta that 1043Hp. Whatevs.

I didnt look at last nights euro until now. WOW....thats a lot of ice for tuesday....and a notable bump NW i might add.

at closer view thermal boundery ever so slightly worse. 700/850s ticked NW. Surface looks a little better though. I call foul, but too early to put much thought into it.

something to watch on nooners today. verbatim most show another split wave deal, and remember what just happened 2 days ago. First waive gains traction and dampens part 2. Just an observation and something in the back of my noggin.

Only other thing more challenging than being a met IMO. Especially when they make a living off of LONG term forecasting...

Yeah man. Ridin the line fo sho. We DO NOT WANT the mother load of cold over us, as we'd be sending various hand salutes to the Southern locals. In this pattern, we want to be CLOSE to the boundary (just south of us) and see what gets thrown at us. Thats what i was gettin at yesterday. Were not going to win every event, but as you suggest, things can and likely will sneak up on us. Hell, look at the adjustments in the last 24 hrs. Northern Pa went from nothing to catbird seat (relatively speaking). That could very well by LSV by early next week.

Ok, now that we've cleaned out the friggin trash.....someone go find us somethin to raise our spirits. Nooners starting and NAM looks perty for the Northers in the group...... sno hogs

this times 100.... Its happened time and time again in the last few years. One needs to store this away in ones mind for future dreamy looks that we get on the models. Looking at snow maps is no worse than looking at 850/2m temp panels. They both are equally misleading and have a direct correlation on one another....ie cause-effect

But to that end, some were "sold on the cold" that was coming and that's why those of us that always "look north" when seeing fun stuff, as we know it typically verifies a couple/few ticks north of where we want it. The northerm adjustment has been inevitable for the last few years....why....dunno...warming base state, but its real and we are seeing it once again. While northern locals may not get 45.2" we'd all be giddy to be sitting under the big numbers in hopes that 1/2 of it verifies....while down here we just wave to our northern brethren and send a salute.....I'll let you decide what your hand salute looks like

Thats what we were discussing yesterday. So many moving parts, its near impossible to accurately predict cause- effect of each system and what it does for the one right on its heels. IMO thats why we see little continuity on the models even as we are well inside mid term and approach near.

FWIW EPS Ens is notably East of Op for both of next weeks storms. Like lock that sh!t in kinda east....if they hold next week would flat out be best week of winter IMO.

At least that has been pretty consistent on several models. Imo that one has a chance.

Yeah it may well be ice but verbatim we are close to a lot more taint. Not what I wanted to see.

HH NAM is about 1 move away from raining on my pre valentines eve activities. I wanna toss but fear we may be wet for Saturday. This one isn’t trending well for LSV.