pasnownut

its all about the thermals....lol. Looks like a messed up clipper. 700s plenty cold and 850s decent w/ wind primarily out of the W upstairs lets column stay cold enough.

Boy thats notably different. I dont pay much attention to pivotal because of ease of use w/ TT....and as suggested last week, I only look at clown maps for frozen vs non frozen and trends in qpf placements for said frozen. It's merely a tool for me....not a forecast whatsoever. Oh and I get the freebie Euro from it as well.

Do pivotal NAM's fare better wrt frozen pricip? I thought it was a NAM algorithm flaw, not a TT one...or maybe both? I know Kuchera is the safter way to go.

Guess you saw this clown map as well....hehe. I'm getttin tugged back in as there is some wiggle room and the SE progression seems to be legit as we are getting closer to this. Probably a good thing that its close on the heels of last nights "event", as the antecedent cold coupled with an HP that is decent and well placed, is likely the savior to this storm for our locals.

Hey....thats a good point.....lol

So shift that 50 miles north and u see what LSV gets. Jipped.

Yeah I also noticed a chunk taken outta da pack today. Argh

Go back and look at the maps that I posted this morning. There was plenty of room and ridging out ahead for this to trend poorly. That’s exactly what I was worried about. Whether it’s a b or an a doesn’t matter if trough axis lets s/w flow out ahead screw our precious thermals. To many rain is rain no matter how we achieve it. Hp needs to hold for cad to save the day.

This is what I'm getting at w/ all of the chattin up Thursday, when merely 24 hours ago you looked like 6-9 up there, and now I'd wager 1-3 or 2-4 at best. Upper air pattern for Thursday has similarities to todays event, so I'd be cautious at "throwing this one away in search of the next" kind of mentality. Yes, next one does appear like a single system that doesnt cut or transfer, so it should be a "cleaner" event to follow....but it too will not be without further adjustments to what we see today vs where it ends up.

Now that how to talk dirty. south and east at 72 is the new sexy for the LSV to get snow.

If that bullseye were 50 miles south, I'd be way more enthused..... But I sure am interested

and to get that thumpage in marginal thermal profiles....we need best lift/forcing. Verbatim (my new favorite word), we dont have that down here. I80 does and only briefly. Sorry guys. I'm not wanting to poo poo. I want a good snow/sleet event as much as ya'll do.

I see what you did there..... not funny.....but true. lol

lols.. you can have it bud. As much as i want and love snow, I'm a realist to the core, and that's how I roll.

and 540 line running right along I80 at same timestamp w/ a steady SW wind. Ice ICE baby. sleet n zr at 24-25 deg. BTW this is the "money" panel that shows your front end lovin. Its beyond a razors edge IMO. I'm not here to argue, so dont think I am. We normally sit on same side of the snow fence, but think we need to temper expectations. Thats all.

currently 33 w/ dp of 23. todays high is supposed to be.....33. evap cooling may drop temp breifly, but wind is SW

I know, I veiwed precip panels, but to get 4" and watch it all wash away.....meh. Guess what i'm sayin is verbatim is a far cry from reality...especially w/ models of late, so I take them w/ a large dose of caution. Thats all. It's yours to bring home. I'm just being real and sharing my worries.

thats just great.... #we r debbies

so heres the razors edge max thumpage panel that will adjust north like 75 miles till go time. I/we will be well south of the line where magic happens. With ridging in place, that screams taint at best. Just not enough wiggle for me to wanna jiggle.

You know I'm just busting....but I'm trying to not set hopes too high. Yes we get a thump verbatim, but one needs reminded of how many "good looking" storms have gone north this year. Thats my worry bud, and I'm stickin to it. You bring this one in Blizz. I'm rootin for ya, but would be lying if I said i wasn't nervous. Heads for more coffee.............

feel out da room???? lol I guess thats the psu thing you guys were chattin about? Dunno man, I just dont want to get set up once again. Yes its been a decent run, but down here in the lsv its not been near as good as what you snow hogs have been getting.... and yeah....I hate mondays (except the ones that are holidays )

confluence is further north on thusday to my snakebit eyes. Yes it is a bit more pronounced, but verbatim its another norther deal for most. I dont see the arctic air you do, but ok. tonight thusday

Dunno....By thursday, it may be a state college to Erie special..at best. The norther adjustments are just relentless, and quite frankly....pissin me off. Go loop the GFS...thursday setup looks alot like tonights. I just dont feel it like you do. Hope I'm wrong but someone needs to show me something more than snow maps to make me "feel better". too much ridging and HP like tonight wont anchor. I feel like Thursday may end up at best, slightly south of tonights mess. Sorry to piss in ya'lls morning cheerios, but I just dont see anything thats going to keep from getting cut once again. 500's for tonight. Thurday

shoulda read down a bit...thx for sharing.