pasnownut

You may think I'm crazy, but sometimes its worse getting rain/zr/sleet.... while you snow. Sometimes I'd almost rather nothing, than missing out while someone close by "cashes in". Mind you thats living all but 5 yrs of my life down here, so I've seen it so many times, I'm used to riding the razors edge, and getting cut just gets old. Thats all.

I may have an extra 15 min after your 10 min, as I'm 10 miles north of Lanc city so I get ya. I know it sounds trivial to parse over but where you and I live, makes a BIG difference. Our northern/western brethren just dont know how good they have it....lol. and to add to this, I cant tell you how many times (like currently) that when I drive from Akron to Lancaster (down 222), then get on 283 and head to Etown, you can see how we have snow, and Lanc city loses it, then you see it building back towards Etown.

and 850's fwiw. IMO notably souther shift at lower levels (likely because LP pops off VA coast and column responds??) Thats my hunch. 6z 12z

HMM...looked a tick colder to me. Yes, its a thin line as always down here, but thermally I looped both 6/12z and 12 at 700 is slightly better for LSV battleground. May just be noise and could tick north tonight anyway, but Im ok w/ what it shows verbatim. 6z 6z 12z

Yeah as MAG so eloquently stated, w/ part 2 we need coastal to wrap up and get us an easterly fetch to throw the goods back this way, but even if that doesnt happen light overrunning events may attack the thermals, but may not wreck them, so I'm sorta ok w/ either.

yeah i dont think you were done w/ the run when you posted that. Truth is we are getting close enough that most in our forum are in for something, but so long as nooners hold or even tick back north at many of us expect, we should still be fine w/ this event. Sligthly south is a great spot right now IMO

or we just stay at 6-9 and be happy to overachieve.... i guess its all in how one looks at it.

Thats about as good as one could expect to hear from CTP. Ok....I'm in.

it IS HH ya kno.... Sounds like a cold snap kinda night.

lol was thinking the very same thing. Thats funny.

He gets to pick how I eat my crow Friday....

Icon verbatim was a nice 2 part deal....I like it. Not sure if I believe but man do I like. Blizz's heads gonna get stuck walkin thru the door cause this is his storm.

thru 60 GFS ticks southeast w/ best accums but gives LSV the wiggle room it needed for tomorrows north jog. If this look holds tonight, I'm thinking this one is a safe bet for down here in southern pa. 540 came south a bit as well. Little colder is nice and needed and might help w/ ratios a bit.

the techy term is SOUTHER get w/ da program pal.

I noticed a slower less progressive look at 12z wrt MSLP eekin its way NE off the Chessy bay area. Was hoping that was legit as its likely helping w/ backbuiling of qpf for part 2 of the event. Love it.

Den dats a B...... not an A wtf

Model dependent but yeah pretty much right after you get to work.....look out :0

Thats very rarely a good deal for our region...unless AO/NAO and EPO is -5...then we all freeze. and sorry. I'm about jipped out on the winter weather of late....call me a hog, but I want a clean snow event down here (although setup says sorry Nut...taint happenin...see what i did there

fortunately we are "runnin outta time" for big shifts in guidance, and we've got some buffer room for decent acums to vascilate a bit w/o seeing a repeat of yesterdays non event. And FWIW, it looks cold enough to keep it around through next Wed. at least. Thats a win as well.

already looked and its decent, but best forcing is BWIish this is "our" panel....lol

GFS holds the line from early am runs but 540 came north. Still a forum pleaser verbatim, but still think LSV is gonna taint for a bit. At 54 700's/850's came notably north, but then collapse after LP moves NE. Little less CAD IMO. Dunno how I feel about LSV yet. Good rates should help a marginal thermal profile down here.

axis of best accums seems to tick SE as well. Blizz should approve.

nooner NAM coming in stronger w/ cold and more south w/ front end snow. Good sign so far.

Even as pattern looks to break, its not a flip to spring but more see saw back no forth. Verbatim GFS shows a backdoor into march w/ cold here in the east w/ primary flow from a northerlyish kinda direction. IMO winter continues after a couple breaks. Looking at ens guidance GFS Ens have some disagreement, but adding Euro into it, I see no real warmups and normalish kinda temps. After St pattys, I start to care less, so it looks like as of today, we have a shot at normal backend. AO/NAO heading back down after recent spike and possibly going slightly neg. could bode well as wavelengths start to shorten as we approach the end of winter. Could be some more fun n trix in the bag.

yep yep, but looking at source region, we are cold enough to support frozen. I was just adding to your comment as to why we can snow in that setup. I'd not put much weight on it until after Thurs. to see what we have left for cold.