pasnownut

Lanco's forecaster said not to believe the models.....so don't . Truth told, this one has been a nail biter for some time, notsomuch trackwise or evolution, but as we lack antecedent cold, and the waiting game can be tough thermally down here. We know that all too well. Whether lanco gets into the goods or not, many just to our north and west should enjoy an nice event.

need quicker transfer to coastal to get column to cool. slower transfer is kiss of death. and thats a tough one, as we've been burnt far too many times waiting...

and THATS the big rub for many of us CTP'rs...sterling taunton, mt holly all post perty colors all AROUND us well in advance, while we wait to see what color we get....if any.

itll tick north for nooners or Hh. Right where we want it.

Par for the course. Been that way for....ever. Its been said many times by many of us, I don't envy the position of pros/public service/safety folk that are responsible for getting the word out, but yeah even for southern tier folks, they should at least post an advisory with disclaimer that were riding the line, and while it may not happen....it may, so dont be surprised if your wet gets white. Specially with morning rush smack in the middle of it.

as I said a couple times now, the normally bashed GFS Op at meduim/longer leads has had a decent run in the medium range this season, and while I know it shows what we want to see, there is valid reason the hug the hell outta it....for now.

Enough ticks south to say nooners went the right way for us, as we've got several of em showing hits of various proportions.

I'll take it for now.

For storm #1 i agree, but #2 and PDIII look fine in the cold department.

Really rooting for the GFS to be on point. Further SSE with transfer and keeps this under us. I'll take that at 5 days out.

yeah B transfer just south of KPIT with marginal thermals doesnt work well round here. Need further south track to give CTP a shot at this.

actually heard of someone doin that and burned bunghole so bad that it ended up killin him.... well I read it on the internet....

hey now....some us "not quite as old" still have lo navigate this shitstorm in hopes of retirement - or a world worth livin in when the time comes.

I watched some sierra snow stuff last year, thanks for the reminder to do so once again (and trainer for the tip on what to search for on youtube.

Who are you kidding. You'll pawn off your snowblower for more poker chips if needed....and so would I. Thats a thing of beauty (map wise).

as I know you know, with the way things have become wrt models Ops/Ens snow maps, biases etc, its really tough to pin down at this range, so just to see things somewhere inside the goalposts is all I look for at this juncture. Unfortunately goal posts are pretty wide right now, but with some north and some south, were in the middle which is good. Truth told, I'd rather have more members in the south camp, cause we all know things head north as we close in. Lastly, that PDIII event on the maps is just a beautiful looking setup. If only we could lock that one in.

fyp

Yeah, its on an island right now, but man that 6z snow map was one like we've not seen in a while.... Gotta love digital snow. IF the GFS has a clue, its gonna be a nice little run in the next couple weeks. Pattern evolution says why not, so here's to hopin.

Yeah, it looks like we are about the head into some fun times pattern and trackin wise. of course we can find ways to fail....but could be a fun period.

I find it amusing that he suggests possible SSW event/lag time and what it may mean to LR guidance, but still stands firm on early spring (which would be after said voodo event)? IF we were to get said SSW event, that might throw a small or large wrench into his call for early spring. Mind you, like Mitch, I have always been intrigued by SSW events and hope this one works, as no matter when spring comes, we'd have a notable stretch of winter beforehand and if said event unfolds, the lag time and duration are really hard to pin down.

one good takeaway from nooners, is that all say were gettin some....

Kanook house model is a clean A that comes up and no transfer, but inland enough to keep us southers wet n not white. Northers approve. Just need the cold, and I'd take that look in a heartbeat, but again thats me wishing.

yeah, looks like it hits a cold brick wall and transfers far south enough to go boom over us. but thats extrapolating and wishcasting combined....

tough one.....but I'm gonna give JB the nod for a "variety of reasons".

boy would that map he posted make many happy.