pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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This shows how forcing is often part of the challenge, as I suggested the other day (and its known by most), one doesnt have to be in the jackpot qpf, to be able to maximize potential in areas of best forcing (700's and isothermally). We are seeing just that in central/norther pa. May not be a big win, but to be in the game and not on bench is good enough when livin on the edge.
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Us weather geeksl MUST be wired the same. My backyard bar for any event, is to NOT see my grass blades stickin out. When cleaning patios or paths to woodbin, I will kick snow over exposed grass wherever i can. thanks for the chuckle. Nice to know I am in good company for being a whacko.
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Icon and Rgem both continue the wagons slightly N trend. Enough for me to sleep well no matter what the rest show. Keeps me safely in my 3-6". Glad to see most here will be joinin in some fun.
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yeah if we can get them to hook up, that might be a fun one to watch.
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you can advise my 4" you can watch my 4" you can warn my 4" As long as I can play w/ my 4"....I'm giddy
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mesos joinin in the bump N w/ second tier southers gettin a little more. Hoping we can eek out another bump before go time. I'll be sleepin, so I'll just dream about it and see if dreams really do come true.
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weve got 3 model runs of "ticks" left.... Inside 24, its nice to see N ticks still happening. IF we can get 1 or 2 more northers, many LSV'rs are affected and snow weenies rejoice.
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yeah thats my point. Any reason.....
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add it to "the keep pile"
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Just figurin that out huhh.... This is the norm and has been for as long as i can remember. If on the fringe, yeah I get the frustration, but me thinks anyone between rt 30 and I 80 corridor shouldnt be surprised by whatever transpires model wise today
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I will add that no matter what tomorrow does, ens and tellie guidance sure does look workable or better for the next couple weeks.
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Yeah, I forgot zoom. Still think that school districts need to be reminded that whats easy for them, isnt always easy for homes/families. Multitude of tangible/intangible liabilities attached. But we know this, so I'll stop there.
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based on duration/timing, this one screams SNOW day for many in southern 1/3 of state IMO
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I think you are rather safe in the 4-6". I'm gonna blow the hell outta my 1-2" tomorrow. That didnt sound very good did it?
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dunno bout your hood, but down here, i think they just look for an excuse for a day off. That coupled w/ normal liablities that come w/ snow and kid watchin seems to scare em quick.
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hell, just look at GFS op/ens, and if anyone has been doing this, that alone should cause a flag to show up. Notable diff's within them at 500. Just gonna be fun to enjoy a winter week and chat up more potential.
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today is the add any model that shows what we want into the "ones not to toss" pile.
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That comment was in regards to the next weekend event. I think this one is a safe advisory for you and south, but once north of the burg is gonna have a noticable drop. I'd bet selinsgrove barley sees an inch.
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I'd think your by call is safe. next weekend just looks good on Op surface maps, but ENS arent really supportive. Plenty of time to narrow that one it.
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Hoping this one can work out. Been a whiles since we've seen a potential event of this size.
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Here'sto a Sunday funday of model watchin. NAM's tickin S for nooners. Starting to run outta time so I hope us southers can stay in the 3-5 r 6 zone today. Looking forward to a winter landscape for a while.
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based on track, its a realistic distribution IMO
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3k keeps us believers believin. SLP never transfers and just bowls across so no qpf dryslot to worry about for us. I'd sign right up for this right now and call it a great day. (it is a great day no matter what this storm does).
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keeps my 3-6 guesstimate for southern tier in play (for 6 hours anyway).
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agreed. with this setup, tight gradient should be expected to the N, as its lowest is 1004mb so forcing is limited, but whoever gets the good qpf at -8 to -10 iso's should rack up some fluff IMO.
