pasnownut

then I guess time will tell. Sun is and always has been the biggest spark for creating instability and causing needed lift. Yes, there is more to it than that, but they are not as big of sparks IMO. Lower max temps, and no sun are 2 big empty boxes unchecked IMO. I'll stick w/ my call.....all good. If I'm wrong, I'm happy for you storm chasers. Enjoy. I want the rain (and we are getting it as I type), so its a win for me anyway.

If by upstream you mean post frontal...then no...it isnt going to do anything. Sun needs to be out NOW for the LSV to get T boomers crankin. Its currently light rain in Etown. Squashes the instability. Yes we can still get good rains though.

when looking at the temp and dp's, it looks more like a run o da mill frontal passage w/ some rain on it. Didnt see enough variance on either side of the front to lift my eyebrows much. it is a bit thick out so I'm sure theres enough saturation for some good rain, but I guess we'll see if there is more of a show in a few hours.

looking at the temp/dews it looks like best instability might be south of MD line. Currently cloudy in Etown. Didnt see the sun yet today.

Unfortunately what the 6z had....the nooner 12k Nam just UN nam'd us. Kpit does the best while the energy headed towards Rouzerville goes poof like a popcorn fart right over his head. 3k looks decent with almost a squall line kinda look. Based on CTP's disco, no doubt looks like something worth watching as the dynamics are going to be there.

truth pal.... starting to really think we get a repeat summer like the one that i referenced last week ( think Tim said 06'). Most of conus cooked, while we were saved by the NW flow here in the NE.

a little snippet to brighten the mood.....and remember....always trust the science (and math).....it never lies (just playin'....so relax all). Hello October.....I mean August. #iwannabelieve

does CTP count??? asking for a friend......

Then Pittsburgh is much nicer to them then round here...

Not sure I'm proud of it...., but yeah....sad times.

fair points Bubbles....can't ague w/ your statements at all. People who feel duped for the reversal, have every right to do so. The facts AND the data support their frustrations.

New World Order... feelings > facts. Did anyone hear or see all of the Biden/others posts regarding getting the vaccine and you wont need a mask? I did.....and he was pretty adamant in his stance when he said it....now a few months later and they realize how much power they can levy on us....and whalla. I'm not even sure if you can google them, because your search engines are now being censored..... again, if you think I'm wrong....I feel for you. Just some things to chew on while we wait for other storms to brew....

Its the new norm. Sad but true. We've all seen some fiesty debates here and other places, but now those with keyboard power can control the conversation....and as i watched Johns Hopkins's Dr Makary (and others) questioning the CDC and some of its inconsistencies....I hope the keyboard cops think about it before they hit the delete/ban buttons. Like it or not, there are many varying opinions about why the change in mask usage is being forced upon us. If you think politics isn't part of it....well, I REALLY feel for you. If you dont see me for a while.....hello communism.

Its all good. The takeaway is that based on upper air pattern as depicted here in the northeast, is that we are not likely to get much in the way of prolonged heat. Transient heat/cold like what we've seen for most of the summer. We need to watch that SER and how far it backs west and how it could link up w/ the midwest pressure cooker and we'd get real hot n real sticky....other concern is that if we get flat w/e trough around here, as it could tug lobes of heat east and we'd be hot n dry (lower humidity but still hot). As we all know, the swings of the GFS Op in long range can be rather drastic, so noone really knows what 10 days will look like but the look right now sure is nice for many here in the NE.

BINGO!! I'll take the next 7-10 and worry about the rest later. And when that time comes, we need to see the ridging showin up with more continuity before I get too worried about it. Some were worried about it last week, and as you suggest, its being delayed/denied. Frankly I could take 4-6 weeks of what is being modelled and then say hello Autumn as Sept.1 is typically my crawl outta my old cave date.

Upper air pattern as depicted by the GFS doesnt inspire a ton of confidence out in la la land, but from 8/6 and beyond it does try to back in to the west and become a feature to contend with.

IMO thats the winning ticket right there.

agreed. 8/6 seems to be when it wants to get hot again and its been showing up with some consistency with a blossoming SER. If we can manage a transient pattern like we've been, we'll be alright IMO.

early august has been looking a bit toasty, but yeah if we can end July AOA normal, I'm down w/ that. DP lowered notably last evening and was comfy this am when leaving for office. Normal/non sticky is fine w/ me.

I saw 58 in Akron. Also had a nice 15-20 min downpour last evening and just missed on a second one. My lawn is gonna be greenin and growin again. Just bought turfbuilder to help it. Was concerned about it being hard on the lawn due to being dry, but I think I'll be ok. We've had plenty of rain of late.

Absolutely. While I dislike the heat (in case some aren't aware ), I'm old enough to know there are far more worrisome things to complain about. I just roll with it and like many here, bide my time till the first autumn cold front pushes through. I sold the cave a couple years back....and bought a Harley....hehe Its all good.

yeah man. Just like w/ winter, I dont get too caught up on LR....especially in summer. Beatin the heat is a one week at a time gig for me. I'll take the rest of this week and go from there. But with the little peeking I did do, that was a stout ridge in the central basin, and if rolled over a bit...we'd be on the edge of the heat blanket. I can remember a few/some years back when we had a similar deal where big heat cooked the midwest, and while it got close, we stayed on the fringe of the w/nw flow and it saved the MA and NE from cookin. I'm sure one of you stat guys can find which summer it was.

its ok...next day ala GFS (and fwiw, the GFS is about 8-10 below Euro guidance for same timestamp. Poor midwest tho. They are just trapped under the heat blanket....sheesh

Probably knocking the top off the heat potential...Bad way to do it though. I prefer real clouds over smoke filled ones.....better for the environment n stuff like that.

Thats been a worry in my mind, as the central basin is cooking, it would only take a little sw or persistent westerly flow to bring the goods into our hood. I think its something to watch, but it's been rather stationary from the little i've been watching. Hopefully it just rots out there, and a big push from the NW suppresses it back to where it SHOULD be that hot, down south. Just a wish mind you, but it' can happen.