pasnownut

I litterally picked getting on that exit or taking back roads and chancing small streams to see a client 2.5 hrs ago.....I took back roads.....glad I did.

yeah and someone mentioned a dry slot a while back. I'm not seeing it on the models, and the pivot stays rather full for most/all of us. This isnt a noreaster waiting for a moisture feed, even though watching the radar makes one dream a bit....

Etown flattens the curve as well Date 08/25 08/26 Hour (EDT) 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Temperature (°F) 87 88 90 91 92 91 89 85 82 81 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 74 75 74 77 81 84 Dewpoint (°F) 73 73 73 72 72 71 71 70 69 69 69 69 70 70 70 70 70 71 71 71 72 73 74 75 Heat Index (°F) 94 96 98 99 100 98 95 90 85 84 79 78 77 76 75 75 77 86 92 Surface Wind (mph) 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 Wind Dir S SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SW Gust Sky Cover (%) 11 16 24 32 35 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 30 28 31 34 36 35 33 32 28 23 19 Precipitation Potential (%) 1 1 13 13 13 9 9 9 12 12 12 9 9 9 4 4 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 7 Relative Humidity (%) 63 61 58 54 52 52 56 61 65 67 72 74 79 82 84 87 90 97 90 87 93 87 79 74

HRRRRRRR for another small victory...

thanks for doing the math.... thats exactly how I was looking at it knowing that week 2-5 departures would need to be rather tall...even if Bubbles -11 corrects to -6-7 (GFS)

and to your point, if week 1 is normal/neg, thats a big dent in the ability to achieve +8 with Septembers ability to have big swings either way.

I see where your head is, but we really start to gain in darkness dept, and while Sept is a transitional month, the sun (or loss of) is a constant, and mostly why I think its a tall task to achieve (especially our week 1 early fall preview has legs (and cool nights as currently modeled). Even if it corrects +3-+5 as we all know is possible). .

yeah I know it wasnt yours, but saw it being tossed around in a friggin 200 pg summer thread. WTF. Winter better have 2000 pgs....just sayin.

Welcome aboard. I work (and am currently sitting) in Etown.

thats a bold call from this far out....especially if week 1 starts in the - category. Here crow.....here crow.......

I like how you think bud.

wife and I took the harley out for supper and it was pleasant. By the time we left dinner, we needed to put another layer on for ride home..... Couple more days to get through and then we look to ease up on the heat, but need a regime change to get the flow outta the NW and not S/SW

while that may be over my 1000 mile mark for excitement, I'm willing to move the goalposts.

89 yesterday on ride home from work like you, I was pleasantly surprised at how "comfy" if felt this am. loss of daylight is starting to take a bite out of the summer heat. It's all good. loosetoe's graphic above makes me a wee bit giddy. Septembers gonna do what septembers gonna do...but thats a hell of a start IMO. Happy hump day y'all.

that was also my takaway after looking at overnight runs. Might just be the last big heat week for a while or if lucky the rest of the summer. Long range was looking like a hint of autumn lurking. Me likes...

Guessing one of them hit my area, as I only get water in when extremely heavy rains pond on back porch. Thats when the garage springs a leak. Fortunately we hope to update portch next year and that goes away. @Itstrainingtimeyes that last band is what really did it (and was what I should call the bubblesband cause he was watching that early yesterday when the HRRR started to hone in. had that not occurred, Ida felt a bit better w/ my hunch. All good. I'm just a hobbyist and eatin crow is part of the game for me/us.

sure is. Funny thing is I thought Lanco would be on the low side, while most other regions had shown this for a while. Wife got a text to go to work a different way. Roads under water just south of town.

I've got to give props to NWS for holding the line on the flood side of the forecasts. I'll admit that I didnt see that potential showing up on the models (for LSV). Looking at NAM'rs inside 24 i wasnt seeing it, but yeah...they got that right for sure. Little water in garage last evening so I was dong some cleanup. 3rd time in 18 yrs here and other 2 times were impressive rains as well. On the severe side, we really didnt have much more than run o da mill thunder and lightening (with very few CTG strikes). I'll take that part as a win. That said I took a couple bites outta the crow to keep my word, but that's all.

I just came from reading to eastern Lanco/southern berks right now and went from ponding to nary a puddle and blue skies while other direction is wall of wet. Currently no rain in kleinfeltersville (middle creek sanctuary)

Gonna be close down here. Sauss, canderson and pts north and west better look out tho.

That last line looks pretty stout and really did pop. I’m glad for the western crew for getting the needed rains. If it holds together I’m going for Cajun rub on my crow.

headed out. Scratchin my head or need glasses, but I'm not seeing it. rd#2 looks to be ctp and north....not lsv especially souther lsv. movenent is NNE not E. Good luck all. Enjoy whatever you get.

Thanks for the heads up and I like how you guys think. Check this out. Really good friend of ours owns it. Right near Millersville Univ. https://bertsbottleshop.kinsta.cloud/ Pre Rona he had over 400 diff beers from ALL over the world. Tell him what you like and he comes out w/ something that just hits all of the marks. Like many he has really struggled in the last year, but did what he had to to make it through. Hoping he's outta the woods.

Bubbles, this convo IS what I thought the board was always intended for. I'm not 1% bothered by a different opinion, and actually like it because from it is how how we learn. You give good reasoning....and I.....well we'll see. Keep it up pal. I'd expect nothing less from you/others. I try to have fun w/ a hobby that I know a little about and come here for both. BTW....I....like Sauss drink Hi life lite (bikini season).... so you are safe if you lose.

we should make a beer bet.... this is fun. and if I'm wrong, I'm doing it in good company w/ some great disco being tossed around. (not nearly as much fun as SNOW disco mind you)