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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    It's likely at some point. Just gotta pull for 1 or 2 more bumps before the grab ahold of the rug.....
  2. pasnownut
    Will be interesting to see if we get another norther tick...and then a bump south. It'd be just like the good ol' days.
  3. pasnownut
    Further shifts aside, and as suggested last week regarding keeping an eye on this system, its refreshing to see things "happen as they normally do" regarding north shifts etc. Of late, it has been challenging in that regard. This one is riding a boundary....clean and simple ...lol. Would be great to see a "simple" pattern get established before we head back to SLP's heading for the central basin. It's been a convoluted mess tbh.
  4. pasnownut
    If only we could put more faith in SREF's.
  5. pasnownut
    will be interesting to see how much more movement is possible. NO hp to stop it. Verbatim it closed off again at 0z, so yeah, it might be able to conjur up some of its own cold air. At some point we'll either run outta time, or room.... Good news is we find out in abt 48 hrs.
  6. pasnownut
    GFS just told NAM to get its head back in the game.
  7. pasnownut
    verbatim, that might be a tad much, but I it sure would be awesome. I'll take 1 or 2" and be giddy.
  8. pasnownut
    I've been a fan and supporter of the NAM....but yeah, its a little unnerving to see such disparity in the short range home team models... Might make for a challenging and trying couple of weeks.
  9. pasnownut
    The trend is our friend.
  10. pasnownut
    If that’s the case we gotta watch thermals in LSV as it’s riding boundary with no HP….especially if it gets stronger. That was brought up as a concern yesterday and need boundary to stay south for us.
  11. pasnownut
    Wow. That’s good to hear. Perfect. Did thermals look good for all? edit. Just saw blizz maps. We’re good.
  12. pasnownut
    Spoken like a true (and I like your thinking..
  13. pasnownut
    Not sure how it cuts into this. Boundary has been eeking south for the last 1.5 days. I'm more worried about the 20" totals for MA coming true.
  14. pasnownut
    NAM is now backing W like GFS as I shared earlier. See below. Problem is that it slides right and gains little latitude. Positiive takeaway is that it is coming around to the event, even if evolution differs from GFS. Again, not saying it hits LSV, but trends are now starting to make one keep both eyes if you live S or E in PA
  15. pasnownut
    Just looked at 6z's and gotta say it is pretty crazy to see the NAM/GFS so far apart for a system well into short range. A page back you/trainer were chatting about it and yeah, one of em is gonna get schooled. another tidbit to offer is that the GFS has progressively backed W w/ precip shield and SLP, so it was nice to see a "typical" model bias from the past. Not saying it means much at the end of the day, but just pointing out something I've been watching wrt this storm.
  16. pasnownut
    Have fun. Be safe y’all. Happy Early New Years!
  17. pasnownut
    Hittin the bubbly a bit early…. I’m Proud’a you.
  18. pasnownut
    Dunno. If your rooting the EPS on, gotta hope this continues to trend SE as it has last 2 runs. Need that boundary further SE.
  19. pasnownut
    Drizzle all day over here. Havent been out in last hour tho.... This sucks.
  20. pasnownut
    Dude, its totally ok to be snakebit....your not alone. I'm just trying to keep it real, and as you suggest....chances may be getting real. Rolling forward, longwave trough looks to take aim at conus, but early on cold isnt deep...but it gets there twds end of run. Pattern shuffles w/ Pac ridge finally there, but if could still be wet not white for a while. At least we have a new hand to play with.
  21. pasnownut
    No prob. Surely not here to tell ya how to roll...but at that timeframe, Ens or Op....its more of a tossup. IMO id go 60/40 Ens over Op, as you have multiple iterations weighing averages over 1 Op run. Just something to ponder when you peek at the models...
  22. pasnownut
    Ok. Gotcha.. Verbatim, if Ens suite has more of a clue at d7, SLP rides boundary and NW 2/3 of Pa takes that run most any day. You n I sweat it out and pray for thermal boundaries to hold.
  23. pasnownut
    Did you guys look at GFS Ens guidance for same time stamp? You might want to back that percentage down a bit. Verbatim GFS Ens suite is just fine for d7 Op Ens....pick your winner
  24. pasnownut
    For those worried about next Friday, pay attention to the 1/3 event first. As your seeing enough changes at 66 hours, dont fret yet abt 156hrs. Pattern looks to finally be taking a different look, and likely will throw out a few sliders/curve balls along the way. Just keep the bat off the shoulder (sports analogy for all you friggn sportsaholics)
  25. pasnownut
    RGEM, GFS stepped back in our favor. Slightly slower and wester with better spacing (as we suggested was needed yesterday). It's almost like they listened to us....
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