pasnownut

verbatim, that might be a tad much, but I it sure would be awesome. I'll take 1 or 2" and be giddy.

I've been a fan and supporter of the NAM....but yeah, its a little unnerving to see such disparity in the short range home team models... Might make for a challenging and trying couple of weeks.

The trend is our friend.

If that’s the case we gotta watch thermals in LSV as it’s riding boundary with no HP….especially if it gets stronger. That was brought up as a concern yesterday and need boundary to stay south for us.

Wow. That’s good to hear. Perfect. Did thermals look good for all? edit. Just saw blizz maps. We’re good.

Spoken like a true (and I like your thinking..

Not sure how it cuts into this. Boundary has been eeking south for the last 1.5 days. I'm more worried about the 20" totals for MA coming true.

NAM is now backing W like GFS as I shared earlier. See below. Problem is that it slides right and gains little latitude. Positiive takeaway is that it is coming around to the event, even if evolution differs from GFS. Again, not saying it hits LSV, but trends are now starting to make one keep both eyes if you live S or E in PA

Just looked at 6z's and gotta say it is pretty crazy to see the NAM/GFS so far apart for a system well into short range. A page back you/trainer were chatting about it and yeah, one of em is gonna get schooled. another tidbit to offer is that the GFS has progressively backed W w/ precip shield and SLP, so it was nice to see a "typical" model bias from the past. Not saying it means much at the end of the day, but just pointing out something I've been watching wrt this storm.

Have fun. Be safe y’all. Happy Early New Years!

Hittin the bubbly a bit early…. I’m Proud’a you.

Dunno. If your rooting the EPS on, gotta hope this continues to trend SE as it has last 2 runs. Need that boundary further SE.

Drizzle all day over here. Havent been out in last hour tho.... This sucks.

Dude, its totally ok to be snakebit....your not alone. I'm just trying to keep it real, and as you suggest....chances may be getting real. Rolling forward, longwave trough looks to take aim at conus, but early on cold isnt deep...but it gets there twds end of run. Pattern shuffles w/ Pac ridge finally there, but if could still be wet not white for a while. At least we have a new hand to play with.

No prob. Surely not here to tell ya how to roll...but at that timeframe, Ens or Op....its more of a tossup. IMO id go 60/40 Ens over Op, as you have multiple iterations weighing averages over 1 Op run. Just something to ponder when you peek at the models...

Ok. Gotcha.. Verbatim, if Ens suite has more of a clue at d7, SLP rides boundary and NW 2/3 of Pa takes that run most any day. You n I sweat it out and pray for thermal boundaries to hold.

Did you guys look at GFS Ens guidance for same time stamp? You might want to back that percentage down a bit. Verbatim GFS Ens suite is just fine for d7 Op Ens....pick your winner

For those worried about next Friday, pay attention to the 1/3 event first. As your seeing enough changes at 66 hours, dont fret yet abt 156hrs. Pattern looks to finally be taking a different look, and likely will throw out a few sliders/curve balls along the way. Just keep the bat off the shoulder (sports analogy for all you friggn sportsaholics)

RGEM, GFS stepped back in our favor. Slightly slower and wester with better spacing (as we suggested was needed yesterday). It's almost like they listened to us....

lols. You're a good one then. Get well soon.

If you look really quickly....you can almost pretend its a winter scene. Yuk. Flintlocks will stay in gun cabinet today.

6z GFS says I got some bah humbug left in my bag for you. Voyager...you've been quiet. Have you been secretly expanding your snow dome, cause this 1-2 punch we've been getting w/ primary LP going west, and secondary scooting off MA coast has become quite a persistent feature. Trying to wrap head around why (since last year) as Trainer suggests. Starting to wonder if the orientation of the Apps, and how boundaries run up against them has anything to do w/ it? It's almost like some convoluted wonky Miller B scenario.... Guess we still need to wait for more of a change in base state. No camp is NAM/GFS. I'll save the pic, but you can go look for yourself. Wide right. Maybe camp is RGEM. Not sure how much hope that inspires, but its all we got for now. Its precip field juiced up a bit, but we need a good tug to get back in game. Still time.

GFS looks to tick SE for trailer. Not the move we wanted, but still not DOA IMO. I find this interesting. Opens up at 500, but looks like NS and SS are interacting a bit. look at NS height fields into CTP. hmm....I'll keep watching..

that made a nice bump N/NW w/ precip field. Its not an outlier as it has similarities to NAM/18z GFS. Hoping GFS keeps hope alive.

With all due respect....it's been a difficult 2 years for everyone here...and for a multitude of reasons...the pandemic is just the icing on a big shit cake that has many crappy layers. Not trying to be a dick, and of course everyone here cares about each others challenges, yours included. From another perspective, some/many come here to escape the negativity/shit show outside of weather that runs rampant right now, and use the search of snow (or warm) to "get away from it all". Think about it... Anywhoo....back to the shit pattern that may throw us a bone in the next few days....and might look better as we turn the calendar....for how long....you're only a 384hr map away from finding out.